could happen and i hope it does, would be nice seeing nintendo and sony chasing m$ for a change.

as of right now I think that Nintendo will win next generation unless Microsoft and/or Sony adds hardcore motion control to their systems...however u have to keep in mind that Nintendo won over all the new gamers this generation so they will be more likely to be brand loyal come next generation

In many ways, a lot of the elements that have made the Wii so successful in this generation were also present in the Gamecube and the N64 ... and a lot of the reasons why the Wii and Playstation became the dominant console of the generation had to do with what the previous generation market leading console manufacturer did that alienated consumers.

To put it another way, Microsoft probably can't just start catering to a new audience and expect immediate results because it will take time to figure out what these gamers want and to deliver it to them; at the same time, unless people decide to reject what Nintendo produces in the comming generations Microsoft will have an uphill battle to capture mindshare in this market.

John Lucas had some good points. I share his agenda concerning Sony and PS3.

But he didn't talk about the most important factor that makes a console successful in long terms: 3rd Party revenues.

Nintendo has some great success with Wii and DS. But the most people in the business observed one important fact by now: none but Nintendo earns money with DS and Wii. The 3rd party sales on Wii are a desaster.

Big player like EA and Ubisoft sank millions of dollars in Wii game development. The average Wii consumer acquired a Wii to buy Nintendo games and only Nintendo games. Also, Nintendo had big advances to develop games for the new controller - that's why they dominate the Wii market so bad today.

But over the years, Nintendo will miss the 3rd party license revenues.

The Xbox360 is the opposite to the Wii. 3rd party publisher earned good money with their franchises e.g. Madden , Call of Duty, Assassin Creed, Guitar Hero etc.

I know a couple of publisher in the industry that retreats from DS and Wii market because their titles just don't sell. Needless to say, on reason for that is the enormous number of shovelware games on Nintendo platforms.

You actually think that MS came into the industry with a "3 generation plan"? or did you just make that up? Microsoft will never win a generation imo. They can't seem to challenge the Japanese in Europe.

Wow dude there is too many assumptions there, Wii sells 3rd party games well, just look at the list of million sellers (or the games close to the milion).  And profit made by 3rd parties on the DS is just incredible so again you're off. Therefore average Wii consumer do not only buy nintendo games (casuals do not even tend to buy the main Ninty franchises). Oh and Guitar Hero sells most on the Wii, with CoD and Madden having a shot at million sold.

The problem is that big players like EA and UBISOFT do not concentrate enough on the Wii, they mainly send 2nd class teams to ports, if they're games would be better funded and developed they will sell even more, Nintendo and Sega make "BIG" games thats why they make so much money on the Wii. 

I think they came into the industry planning on doing better than they did in the last generation, something which I think they are excelling at. How can you say that Microsoft will never win a generation? They did better than Nintendo in round 1, and they did better than Sony in round 2. What is stopping them from taking everything they learned and beating them both in round 3? I am not saying that it is definetely going to happen or even that it has a very good chance of happening, I am simply arguing that Microsoft is *capable* of being number 1 and there is a decent chance that they may be.

Nintendo wants you to buy their games and consoles.

Sony wants you to buy their games, consoles, movies, and download content.

Microsoft wants to sell you everything they can from the comfort of your home into a platform they own.

Microsoft has more reason to be more agressive than both competitors, they simply want more.

@johnlucas - Very nice post. Looks like you gave it some though and I look forward to sitting down and writing my response. I'm on the road so I can't sit down and write a long response, but I look forward to posting tomorrow :D

Yeah, and Guitar Hero is the only 3rdy party franchise that went very well (> 2mio) on the Wii.

Please have a look on these numbers:

http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=Wii&publisher=&sort=Total

You'll notice that 15 of the top 20 seller (> 2 mio) are from nintendo (or their franchises "Mario&Sonic").

And now the DS charts:

http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=DS&publisher=&sort=Total

Uuhh, looks like we have 18 Nintendo games in the top 20.

These number don't lie.

Yeah, the numbers numbers may not lie but your interpretation of them is pretty misleading ... The Wii has over 25 Million selling third party titles, and another 40 third party titles that have sold more than 500,000 units; which is pretty remarkable with the lack of any major exclusive third party titles having been released for the Wii yet.

Yeah, this is what turns me off of computer gaming for the most part. Back in the day (like early 90's) I used to look in awe at the games on computers because of the different ideas they had. Sim City, Populous, Civilization & games like that came from the computer world.

But I would hate to play a control-intensive game on a keyboard. It just doesn't feel right. Keyboards are good for typing but playing complex games on them. UGH! I know they have joysticks & gamepads too (thank your consoles for that) but it's also the feel of playing on a computer that's undesirable. You get tired of sitting upright at attention all the time. The control interface is the biggest reason why many don't get into computer gaming. You're right. It feels like work. I'm glad you highlighted the corporate cubicle mentality as what influences personal computing design.

Lighter games like Text Twist & Bejeweled & Hexic & Alchemy I can play on a computer because the controls are pretty simple but the high-end side of computer gaming turns me off. I didn't get into the expenditure it takes to run most of those games due to the wild west nature of computer resource standards. I hate configuring shit all the time! Give me clock radio not ham radio.

Interesting. Computers have an closed clandestine elitist nature to them which came from the whiz kids who knew how to work the code & components way back on the college mainframes in the 50's & 60's. Even the internet has residue of this mentality. I remember how people acted in newsgroups & there was this attitude that if you didn't know all the encyclopedias of computer knowledge about a certain subject you were hopeless. Everybody had to start somewhere & computers aren't necessarily intuitive. There's a inherent snobbery against the newcomer & this reflects itself in forums like say NeoGAF.

So you say that Microsoft is working on opening this world up?

You're right. My computer is in my bedroom not front & center in my living room. At my cousin's house, the computer used to be towards the hallway at the back of the kitchen close to the washing machine. Now it's in a bedroom where like with me you can close the door & hide away.

Meanwhile Nintendo's aims since the beginning was to deliver on the trademark console experience, a Family Computer that all can enjoy. An appliance of technology that you could be comfortable with front & center in your living room. Wii's fulfilling that in the way VCR's & DVD players do. This is why Nintendo is so important. They recognize the faults of interface. How you interact with technology determines how you assume this technology into your family. At one time technological limitations provided us with limited ways to translate the software on screen into an enjoyable experience in your hands. Keyboards are great for typing up stuff in offices but they're clunky awkward & wide to use anywhere else than a work office or home office setting.

I bet money Nintendo's working on that very thing you mentioned for their upcoming systems.

It's amazing how much console control has evolved but how static computer control has remained. The selling of any product has to factor in human comfortability. How at ease a person can be with the item. How it feels in their hands, how it pleases their sensibilities. Or at least how it provides that person with a power they never had before.

I've talked with this friend of mine before about this subject & he said one reason Microsoft's in videogaming is to make their own hardware. Basically rewriting the script on computer design through XBox. XBox is Microsoft's computer. It could be a way to control the software & hardware sides of the business so they have absolute monopoly. And they're using that same make it common & standard approach they used in the office world long ago by making the XBox prevalent in every household they can.

It will be interesting to see what develops in the next few years. Next generation I see a collision course between Microsoft, Apple, & Nintendo. I don't know how it will play out but I DO know it will redefine how we look at consoles (& perhaps computers) in the future.

John Lucas