The console market lost it's way before the Wii was developed. People lost sight of the idea of a "future perfect" and instead thought in terms of incremental improvements of the now. The consoles lived in an era of poverty which seeped into the soul of users, a poverty of dreams and imagination which was becoming so ingrained that the users themselves began to cling onto it as the only possible future, much like how real poverty effects people today. I was thinking about the Wiimote compared to the Mouse for FPS type games and how inacurate the former was compared to the latter and the thought "At least it's human" popped into my head. That was the significant reasoning in the 'Motes favour, its human and the design itself could be called imperfect, intuitive. The dream of a "future perfect", virtual reality type experience with total visual immersion requires a true "human" interface and the Wiimote is one such device because it very much is human.

The Wii is selling a dream, and its selling that dream exceedingly well. The next generation needs a new dream to sell, a new step towards the "future perfect" ideal. Consider Wii Fit, Wii Brain Training. These are two areas where the console market hasn't really brought anything of benifit to society until now and both the former and latter cannot be done without the Wii interface or something similar. These two products are merely baby-steps towards the future, the question of how to engage people may lie on the other side of the interface in the visuals. Perhaps now that the interface has been worked out a rudimentry virtual reality visual interface could be the very next step forwards to tweak out the next stage of possibility. Perhaps its the time to engage all the senses and the realm of possibility opens up once again. To sum it up, a new way to learn, interact and experience everything from games to education to fitness.

Perhaps what the console market itself needs to secure its future is a justification that almost every home should have one. The Wii has shown that its not just about games with the massive success of Wii Fit, there may be other roles a console may perform in the home alongside gaming and the inevitable media tack-ons. There are many different ways to accomplish this such as making it useful like I said in a post above, making it engaging and making it from a dream to excite the people with something new that they really believe will make their lives better. People marry the wrong person because they believe there was noone better out there, and people marry the wrong technology because there are no true alternatives. I have hope that the next generation will open up with three distinct visions from the three console manufacturers to give people a choice and perhaps bring the never achieveable ideal of "future perfect" that one baby-step closer.

Well i think that after this new motion controle stuff is all old, unless nintendo does up its graphics then the next nintendo system will fail. So im thinking microsoft will be on top.

Well, even after Nintendo releases the Wii MotionPlus there is still quite a bit of improvement that can still be made to both the Wiimote and Nunchuck; and beyond that the Gamecube, N64, SNES, and Gameboy Advance were all (relatively) powerful systems that were small and inexpensive so I don't think Nintendo will have any problems increasing their graphics if they choose to.

If you take into account the TIME BOTH CONSOLES HAVE BEEN ON THE MARKET the PS3 is selling neck and neck, if not better than the 360. And the only market where the 360 is really ahead of the PS3 if you take this LARGE time difference into account is the NA market, particularly the USA. Sony will not be leaving the videogame industry this generation or next.

SCE right now is biding their time for more exclusives to hit and someday down the road a price cut. Then everyone who has a 360 will want a PS3 if they want to play the exclusives and everyone who already wants a PS3 but is put off by the price tag buys a PS3. The thing that Sony has that neither MS or Nintendo has are THE BEST exclusive game developing studios.

The PS3 has been out for 2 years. Quit being so naive to think this race is over, much less the PS3 being abandoned or Sony abandoning the gaming industry.

Um, you sure about that, vthokiesrmoo?

You DO make a point that XBox 360 & PS3's launches were a year apart with the 360 having more time on the market. But let's compare the figures for the U.S. market from both launches to see if your theory holds up. We'll use the NPD numbers since it's easier to block them off from month to month.
Leader in comparison has asterisk next to number. PS3's difference from 360 in brackets on side. Tally of months won & sales numbers lost to rival at end of each year.

First Year

1st month
XBox 360 - 326,000* (Nov. 2005)
PlayStation 3 - 197,000 (Nov. 2006) [–129,000]

2nd month
XBox 360 - 281,000 (Dec. 2005)
PlayStation 3 - 491,000* (Dec. 2006) [+210,000]

3rd month
XBox 360 - 250,000* (Jan. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 244,000 (Jan. 2007) [–6,000]

4th month
XBox 360 - 161,000* (Feb. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 127,000 (Feb. 2007) [–34,000]

5th month
XBox 360 - 192,000* (Mar. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 130,000 (Mar. 2007) [–62,000]

6th month
XBox 360 - 295,000* (Apr. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 82,000 (Apr. 2007) [–213,000]

7th month
XBox 360 - 221,000* (May 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 82,000 (May 2007) [–139,000]

8th month
XBox 360 - 277,000* (Jun. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 99,000 (Jun. 2007) [–178,000]

9th month
XBox 360 - 207,000* (Jul. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 159,000 (Jul. 2007) [–48,000]

10th month
XBox 360 - 205,000* (Aug. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 131,000 (Aug. 2007) [–74,000]

11th month
XBox 360 - 259,000* (Sep. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 119,000 (Sep. 2007) [–140,000]

12th month
XBox 360 - 218,000* (Oct. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 121,000 (Oct. 2007) [–97,000]

X360 = 11    PS3 = 1 (Year One)
[–210,000]    [–1,120,000]

Second Year

13th month
XBox 360 - 511,000* (Nov. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 466,000 (Nov. 2007) [–45,000]

14th month
XBox 360 - 1,100,000* (Dec. 2006)
PlayStation 3 - 798,000 (Dec. 2007) [–302,000]

15th month
XBox 360 - 294,000* (Jan. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 270,000 (Jan. 2008) [–24,000]

16th month
XBox 360 - 228,000 (Feb. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 280,000* (Feb. 2008) [+52,000]

17th month
XBox 360 - 199,000 (Mar. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 257,000* (Mar. 2008) [+58,000]

18th month
XBox 360 - 174,000 (Apr. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 187,000* (Apr. 2008) [+13,000]

19th month
XBox 360 - 155,000 (May 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 208,700* (May 2008) [+53,700]

20th month
XBox 360 - 198,000 (Jun. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 405,000* (Jun. 2008) [+207,000]

21st month
XBox 360 - 170,000 (Jul. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 225,000* (Jul. 2008) [+55,000]

22nd month
XBox 360 - 277,000* (Aug. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 185,400 (Aug. 2008) [–91,600]

23rd month
XBox 360 - 528,000* (Sep. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 232,400 (Sep. 2008) [–295,600]

24th month
XBox 360 - 366,000* (Oct. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 190,000 (Oct. 2008) [–176,000]

X360 = 6    PS3 = 6 (Year Two)
[–438,700]  [–934,200]

Third Year

25th month
XBox 360 - 770,000* (Nov. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 378,000 (Nov. 2008) [–392,000]

26th month
XBox 360 - 1,260,000* (Dec. 2007)
PlayStation 3 - 726,000 (Dec. 2008) [–534,000]

X360 = 2    PS3 = 0 (Year Three)
X360 = 19    PS3 = 7 (Total)
[0]                 [–926,000]

Out of 26 months that both have been on the market since launch, the 360 beat the PS3 19 months of the year to 7. Comparing both systems' 1st years, the 360 beat PS3 11 months of the year to 1. Comparing their 2nd years, the two systems tied at 6 months apiece. And comparing their short 3rd years, the 360 has won both of the 2 months so far.

When the PS3 DID beat the 360 it did so by a margin of no greater than 210,000 (between their 1st Decembers). Meanwhile, the 360 beat the PS3 by a margin of 534,000 (between their 3rd Decembers). And of those times the PS3 beat the 360, the margin never went past 5 digits except for once at 207,000 (in their 2nd Junes—MGS4 launch in Jun. '08 for PS3). The 360 beat the PS3 with 6 digits on 10 occasions with a plenty of 100,000's, 200,000's, & 300,000's.

Now check out the yearly differences between the 360 & PS3. In their 1st years, the PS3 gave up 1,120,000 (1.12 million) to the 360 but the 360 only gave up 210,000 (0.21 million) to the PS3. In their 2nd years when the two split the months down the middle, the PS3 gave up 934,200 (over 0.93 million , almost 1 mil) to the 360 while the 360 only gave up 438,700 (almost 0.44 million, a little under half a mil) to the PS3. The PS3 may have doubled the 360's losses but could only reduce its losses to the 360 by about a sixth of what they had before. And in their 3rd years, the PS3 has already gave up 926,000 (almost 0.93 million, about a mil again) to the 360 while the 360 has given up not a daggone thing to the PS3 yet. So far in the 2 months of their 3rd years, the PS3 has nearly totalled the comparative losses of their whole 2nd year!!

In the holiday season when consoles sales rise the highest, the 360 has improved in sales each time. The 360's Novembers went from 326,000 in 2005 increasing to 511,000 in 2006 increasing to 770,000 in 2007 (November 2008 gives them 836,000). The 360's Decembers went from 281,000 in 2005 (launch shortages) increasing to 1,100,000 in 2006 increasing to 1,260,000 in 2007 (December 2008 gives them 1,440,000).

The PS3's Novembers went from 197,000 in 2006 increasing to 466,000 in 2007 DECREASING to 378,000 in 2008. The PS3's Decembers went from 491,000 in 2006 increasing to 798,000 in 2007 DECREASING to 726,000 in 2008. Where the 360 continued its trend of improvement in its 3rd year (and 4th year) the PS3 begins a trend of decay in its 3rd year on the biggest sales period of the year!! If it's declining now, how can you think it can improve from there or better still reclaim the old rising trajectory it was headed toward?

Also keep in mind that with the exception of the 360's December launch shortage, each of those figures from the 360 are ahead of the PS3's numbers both in November AND December. The 360 is consistently above the PS3 in the holidays & is on a sure but steady increasing trend. The PS3 is consistently below the 360 in the holidays & is actually on a surefire decreasing trend. Not to mention that the 3rd year is about all you can get to show any market potential you can muster. Both already lost the 1st place fight with Wii a long long time ago but the PS3 is losing the battle for 2nd place in the U.S. when both systems represent one particular market philosophy primarily aiming for the same audience.

Highlander tells you true: There Can Be Only One. With the global recession/depression overhead, game studios & companies closing/about to close left & right, 3rd party resources running thin between the 3 platforms, industry in the midst of a market philosophy showdown with Nintendo locked on one side, Microsoft & Sony locked on the other, how can there be room for both Sony & Microsoft to divide this ever-dwindling pie?

In the next 2 years, Nintendo & Microsoft battle it out to decide how this industry operates from now on...and it looks like Nintendo's gonna win this fight. This year, Nintendo will grow even stronger than they were before if you can believe it. Microsoft will directly have to worry about them & take them seriously as a threat because Nintendo will begin absorbing their so-called "Hardcore" base this year & the next. This puts Microsoft in a corner where they either have to try to further emulate Nintendo on their current system, start a new system to upset Nintendo's dominance, or fade out.

This leaves Sony & the PS3 the odd man out with a price too hard to cut with their amount of losses but too important NOT to cut because it scares away too many buyers to create a challenge to Microsoft & secure their developer partners (with their exclusives). But even worse, any price they cut Microsoft can match since they have their system at last profitting or they simply have the vault power to subsidize it as always. Also, no guarantee a price cut will even work if you think about the example of the always low-priced Gamecube who couldn't even sell worth a damn at $99! Once the market hierachy is set & people have determined who will be the systems of choice, price cuts are futile.

At the end of the day, Sony simply doesn't have the reserve money that Microsoft has. Microsoft will exhaust them if they try to match funds. MS is the company who lost $4 billion on the original XBox just to get their foot in the door. The 360 will pick up or share any exclusives that PS3 had from a 3rd party; 1st party/2nd party Sony titles will not keep the system afloat (by the way it's Nintendo who has THE BEST exclusive game developing studios); the PS2 will continue its fading out no longer giving the PS3 any loss cushion; the PSP can only maintain or drop at this point against the DS so not much cushion there; and outside of Street Fighter IV this month there's not too much that will give the system a shot in the arm to endure until the next holidays. By then, the 360 will have locked it up for 2nd place & it remains to be determined how distant that 2nd place is to Wii once Nintendo fulfills its ongoing Revolution.

Nobody's waiting for Final Fantasy XIII to save the day. The U.S. pushback to 2010 was just more daggers in Sony's heart. Sony is about to leave the business. They are going to restructure severely & the PlayStation brand is dead. Sony's not about to fight an even cloudier fight that most likely sees Apple as a contender along with Microsoft & Nintendo at the same time. That's not counting any unforeseen new challengers that may pop up because of what Wii/DS has started.

I haven't even brought up the worldwide situation! That makes it even more gloomy. Sorry to break it all down for you like that but this is what's happening. Sony got caught on the divide between Nintendo & Microsoft and is falling in the crevice. The defeat of the PSP by the DS undid the Sony empire. Sony finished the job in their zealousness to keep up with the Gateses (MS). Then Nintendo ruined all hopes as they eclipsed them both. It's over.

John Lucas

dam what's up with the big wall of mee up above??

ms had a pretty good strategy.. and is strong arming sony at they're game

Why didn't you used your calculation to review your "60 million Wiis at the end of 2008 prediction". Please do not insult people here with your flawed logic. Worldwide PS3 has been consistently outselling X360 taking both systems from launch ever by a large margin.

Doggone economic downturn! Throwing off my sound predictions.

Haha, flawed logic. Hmm. Worldwide both PS3 AND the 360 pale in comparison to the Wii. In Japan they are non-entities in a market that makes handhelds primary console & home ones secondary. Wii is the strongest home console in Japan. That leaves PS3 & XBox 360 fighting over the crumbs of a market. There the PS3 has the definite edge on the 360 but that's not saying much. It's the one place Sony has hope as a whole due to the PSP fulfilling a handheld alternative role contrasting DS. However, not so much for the on-the-way-out PS2 which is pretty much the same story the world over.

I'm looking at the Europe/Others charts right now for the week ending January 24th, 2009. Wii more than doubles the PS3 in the total region count with 165,206 Wiis to 68,025 PS3s. Also in that total count the 360 comes in at 104,588. So you have the same situation overall like you have here. 360 is 2nd place alternative to Wii with PS3 on the outside looking in. DS tops list at 194,670, PSP's #4 under X360 with 71,203, & PS2's at rock bottom with 46,702. DS is close to triple PSP's numbers here.

Break down that Jan 24th count region by region:
•The UK, the biggest territory of the Euro charts. #1 Wii with 44,360, #3 XBox 360 with 25,888, #4 PS3 with 12,362. Wii almost doubles the 360 count & 360 more than doubles the PS3 count. That PS3 count right above its Sony-made siblings the PSP at #5 with 8,242 & the fading PS2 at #6 with 3,821. Of course #2 DS right under Wii with 39,675. DS has almost 5 times more system this week sold over PSP.

•Then France who loves Nintendo stuff. Wii at #2 with 28,323, XBox 360 at #3 with 11,320, & PS3 at #5 with 8,259. Wii's somewhere between double & triple the 360's numbers and more than triple the PS3's own. 360 has a little over 3,000 on PS3. DS at #1 with 90,958, PSP at #4 with 8,316, & PS2 dead last #6 with 3,821. DS owns PSP almost 11 to 1!! God!

•On to Germany which at one time was pretty firm Sony territory. Wii at #1 with 20,235, XBox 360 at #4 with 5,929, & PS3 at #5 with 5,070. Wii bests 360 by well over triple the amount & Wii best PS3 by virtually quadruple the number! DS at #2 with 19,199, PSP at #5,988, & poor PS2 at 3,490. DS is over triple the PSP's sales.

•Now Spain, another once 'Sony friendly' territory. Wii's #2 with 11,636, XBox 360's #4 with 6,905, & PS3's 6,194. While it's a little more competitve here than other places, Wii still has a sizable lead that approaches double the other guys' numbers. DS's #1 with 21,011, PSP's #3 at 10,980, & PS2's trampled by the toros de Pamplona at #6 with 4,823. DS is double the PSP.

•And Italy, a REAL hardcore Sonyland at one time. Here XBox 360's #2 with 11,876, Wii's #3 at 11,062, & PS3's #5 at 4,933. For once Nintendo's home console ain't No. 1 of the home consoles but it's very close. Both of those 11 thousand-numbered competitors more than double PS3's output leaving Sony the 3rd wheel in a motorcycle race. DS is #1 at 17,789, PSP is #4 at 8,539, & PS2's last at #6 with 4,649. DS got the PSP over twice the amount & the PS3 and PS2 are almost equal.

•Now for the thrown together region known as Scandinavia. #1 Wii with 9,426, #3 XBox 360 with 5,740, & #4 PS3 with 3,458. Wii has a good lead over 360 headed toward doubling; Wii has a better lead over PS3 headed toward tripling. DS is #2 at 7,604, PSP is #5 at 3,155, PS2's #6 & last at 1,853. DS over double the PSP AGAIN!

•For the rest of Europe. Wii #1 with 15,796, XBox 360 #4 with 9,650, & PS3 #3 with 12,282. Here maybe SOME hope for Sony. That idiot George W. Bush always said don't forget Poland so putting Hungary, Greece & the rest of Eastern Europe with them helps the PS3 look competitive. It's actually interesting race here but Wii's still on top beating the 360 by over 6,000. DS #1 with 19,349, PSP strangely dead last at #6 with 7,517, & PS2 actually at #5 with 8,254. DS is well over double the PSP & the PSP can't even beat dying PS2 which has the handheld by over 700! Wow!

•Now for Australia/New Zealand which I remember being a XBox 360 receptive country. Wii at #2 with 9,091, XBox 360 #3 with 4,871, & PS3 at #4 with 3,473. Wii almost doubles 360 & is closing in on tripling PS3. DS at #1 with 9,578, PSP at #5 with 2,002, & PS2 last at #6 with 1,608. DS beats PSP by 4 to 1 (closing in on 5 to 1)!

•For the unidentified Others which may include South Africa, the Middle East nations & such. It's XBox 360 at #2 with 22,409, Wii at #4 with 15,277, & PS3 on the bottom of the heap with 11,994! Wii's getting challenged here by 360 which has it by a good 7,000 & it's near the last place PS3 only beating it by a little under 3,300! So in all these regions put together as one PS3 has to worry about the XBox 360 more which only lends weight to my argument. DS at #1 with 29,507, PSP at #3 with 16,464, & PS2 at #5 with 12,443. DS is close to doubling the PSP here. Obviously the PS2 is still viable in these region since it's so close to Wii & PS3.

That's the rundown. Not in one territory in either handheld or home did Sony rule the charts. They might have a few good peeks at the promised land from week to week in the European charts but it's probably not sustainable. In most of these territories it's that 1-2 punch of Wii & DS messing up both competitors. And when it's not then Sony still has to contend with Microsoft.

Put all these little factions together & you get the Total Europe/Others picture meaning these regional battles have less impact. Nintendo overall runs this territory with Microsoft as Numbuh Two. Sony's like the puppy pawing at the door to come inside. At this stage in the game, there's no hope left. The Americas are solid, Japan is solid, & Europe/Others is just about solid. Time has run out for Sony.

John Lucas

They use this mdel for everything, Windows, MS office and now the xbox.  The scary part is its working the 360 is a great console the only thing I wont allow is them to become a monopoly that would be bad but I give them props

I honestly don't think the casual market will be so big the next gen. Ask why the wii has sold so much so quick and the answer has been people playing amongst friends and realizing its great party entertainment. where will be the need to upgrade?