I just wished there been a little more storyline, like when the girl got infected.

I did like the "It's still alive" at the end though.

The Ron Paul example doesn't work because the GOP didn't want him representing them in the election. Remember, he wasn't in the actual election itself. I saw plenty of real world hype from him by people who have never seen him on the Internet.

You're overall topic is valid though and it's one I've spoken about before. The Internet represents a vocal minority. This happens with any fan driven entertainment. Fan clubs, socials, chat rooms, forums, etc...

In fact, hype rarely ever meets reality.

Alright... a formula... What are the elements we already have, and what is our goal?

Goal: Factor that reduces noise.

Factor here means that we should either multiply by a number that resembles 0.(#) or divide by a number larger then 1.

Elements we know:

Hype: - self-explanatory
Hype, so it seems constitudes of 1: # of people advocating hype, and 2: their means of communication.

Hype affects reduction factor negatively so it should start with a -sign.

A second element is how easily the masses pick it up. This is obviously the rest of the world who do not advocate the object (thus do not vote for, buy, or see the object.) This element constitudes:

1: Number of people not picking up on hype.
2: Their means of getting in touch with the hype-people. Affects reduction factor positively.

I'd say thus that reduction factor = (People not hyping x acces to communication means) - (people hyping x acces to communication methods).

(something)

= 0.259

Cloverfield's internet publicity was intentional and centrally planned. Neither of the other two were to a great extent. The lesson is to hire a good marketing agency that gets results.

Maybe it doesn't fully.  However, from a being in an echo chamber standpoint, it does.  When you are in the middle of it (I got caught up in the Ron Paul campaign), a bad case of groupthink happens and people end up believing the hype and feeding on it.  Hopes grow larger than what will actually happen, as do expectation.  A difference between the Ron Paul campaign and a videogame or console, is that fanboy wars break out in consoles.  There isn't a place you drop off and hide and get fed stuff.  You happen to end up being forced to deal with people who will seek to burst your bubble.  In th Ron Paul campaign, it was an "us against the world" thing, which looks absurd in the area of videogames, and over the Internet.

So, would another way to look at this be, take the high end of the hype predictions and multiply it by .25 to get actual sales figures?

Let's say someone is estimating 1 million sales on the high end for Killzone within the first few days.  If we use the .25, then the actual sales should clock in at 250,000 within the first few days.

Actually, if we do work on this more, this could be a valuable metric.  Maybe VGChartz can get behind this somehow, and come up with something, besides their tracking and estimation of sales numbers.  We probably could use the prediction league as a data pool.  Then come up with a "buzz factor" and use that as the factor to predict.  If you end up with something that consistently scores within 5%, there will be a LOT of money attention in this area.

But it goes both ways. A game can have low buzz but sell well. You need something that can distinguish realistic possibility from the deceitful hype.

For example, the amount of hype surrounding Killzone 2 is enormous. The hype for Halo Wars is quite low.

What if both games end up selling 2.5 million copies? In that case it would have been wrong to take .25 x Halo Wars sales predictions. We need a tool to sort the wolves from the sheep.

But I don't think it can be done.

Well, if normal people, who make up the bulk of videogame sales, are a different species from people who read here (this is very likely), they it is entirely possible that making accurate predictions based on hype, isn't possible.  For people on here, Killzone 2 isn't just a game that is meant to entertain.  KZ2 is meant to be something that proves that the 360 just can't match the PS3, and thus would be a turning point in the videogame wars.  It is supposed to be the first shot of a line of titles that will help to bury the 360 originally, and then the Wii long term.  It is supposed to show that the PS3 will have a 10 year shelf life and its current costs are justified.  For people on forums like this, Killzone 2 is more than just a game.  Oh, also add it is supposed to post GREAT sales numbers, and be a major shot in turning the PS3 into the home for console FPS, away from the XBox brand.

Of course, for most people, it is just a game, and if you see it, and have a PS3, you hope it is real good, so you can get a solid exclusive.

I was actually joking in my post. Should have structured it more like:

step 1: Define goal.
step 2: Find plausible factors.
Step 3: (Something)
Step 4: Profit (or: pull number out of ass for comedic value)

But in all seriousness, Slimebeast and Richard are onto something here. I'd say, work with larger or smaller then symbols. For instance, the blob. People expecting it to sell alright at... 100.000 units. Then the formula could be something like:

(250.000 /= 250.000) x factor (0.25?) x (People not hyping x acces to communication means) - (people hyping x acces to communication methods).

No need for a formula. What we need to do is simply try to avoid making expectations based on internet hype altogether. I posed the question of whether hype over Killzone 2 existed outside of the internet on another thread, as far as I'm aware I wasn't answered. Based on this, I can't really assume anything. I have no metric to go by as to how important it is to the PS3 audience, and more importantly to the prospective buyer audience.

I could test things like excitement for Spore by seeing all the spore creature creations on youtube. I could appreciate the hype for GTAIV when I heard random kids on the street talking about it(unfortunately it seems, the main market for the mature title...). But for most games, including The Conduit and Killzone 2, I get no sense of the real excitement level for these games.