No need for a formula. What we need to do is simply try to avoid making expectations based on internet hype altogether. I posed the question of whether hype over Killzone 2 existed outside of the internet on another thread, as far as I'm aware I wasn't answered. Based on this, I can't really assume anything. I have no metric to go by as to how important it is to the PS3 audience, and more importantly to the prospective buyer audience.
I could test things like excitement for Spore by seeing all the spore creature creations on youtube. I could appreciate the hype for GTAIV when I heard random kids on the street talking about it(unfortunately it seems, the main market for the mature title...). But for most games, including The Conduit and Killzone 2, I get no sense of the real excitement level for these games.
A game I'm developing with some friends:
www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm
It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.
