Ron Paul, Snakes on a Plane, and videogame sales.

[Slimebeast]

richardhutnik said:

Alright... a formula... What are the elements we already have, and what is our goal?

... SNIP ...

1: Number of people not picking up on hype.
2: Their means of getting in touch with the hype-people. Affects reduction factor positively.

I'd say thus that reduction factor = (People not hyping x acces to communication means) - (people hyping x acces to communication methods).

(something)

= 0.259

 

So, would another way to look at this be, take the high end of the hype predictions and multiply it by .25 to get actual sales figures?

Let's say someone is estimating 1 million sales on the high end for Killzone within the first few days.  If we use the .25, then the actual sales should clock in at 250,000 within the first few days.

Actually, if we do work on this more, this could be a valuable metric.  Maybe VGChartz can get behind this somehow, and come up with something, besides their tracking and estimation of sales numbers.  We probably could use the prediction league as a data pool.  Then come up with a "buzz factor" and use that as the factor to predict.  If you end up with something that consistently scores within 5%, there will be a LOT of money attention in this area.

 

 

But it goes both ways. A game can have low buzz but sell well. You need something that can distinguish realistic possibility from the deceitful hype.

For example, the amount of hype surrounding Killzone 2 is enormous. The hype for Halo Wars is quite low.

What if both games end up selling 2.5 million copies? In that case it would have been wrong to take .25 x Halo Wars sales predictions. We need a tool to sort the wolves from the sheep.

But I don't think it can be done.