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Forums - Sales - PS3 Cant Catch up To Xbox 360 . ( Pure Logic )

jin_ivasawa on 17 January 2009
When PS3 was released , Xbox 360 was in 7.5 to 8 mill houses already.that means 360 had a 7.5 mill head start from the moment the PS3 got out ,that was in Nov 06 (360 sold 10,400,000 and the end of 06 ). a year and a month later ,after the 07 holidays , Xbox was 17,700,000 and the PS3 was 10 mill , Xbox 360 did better in holdays 06 cuz PS3 was new but PS3 did good in the whole 07 year with its $600 price .but for a console that should have sold 7 mills better it wasnt good Enough . moving to 08 ,PS3 outsold xbox 360 in its early month till summer , but the economy crisis stroke and MS cut the 360s price to so called " Starting at $199 " ,that made the console a Huge boost in US and EU ,after that 360 outsold PS3 with a bigger margin , games like MGS4 or LBP or R2 did good for PS3 ( specially MGS4 ) but they werent the Console sellers that sony had hoped all this time .every single day 360 widened its gap , everyday when it weather got cold the situation got colder for PS3 .and as of Jan 09 the gap between PS3 and 360 is 8 mill according to everyone .
Xbox360 sold 28 and PS3 sold 20. these numbers mean that PS3 it back where is started , back in Nov 06 again . and were already in 09 , so even if next gen consoles come out in holidays 2012 ( 7 years after the 360 ) . PS3 needs to pull some serious strings to catch up . which i think i cant happen .
360 will obviously outsell the PS3 untill sony cuts its price which will not happen NOW atleast . till april or June whatever ( according to MR. Patcher ) 360 will widen its gap . and sony lost many of its key exclusives like FFXIII or Tekken 6 . KillZone2 will defenitly boost PS3 but it that enough? PS3 is still searching for the Halo Killer , cuz Halo 3 sold many many consoles and its the best selling Exclusive game between all the games on 360 and PS3.some might say that God of War 3 will help , but GOW3 it not a console seller cuz none of the previous instalments were . it will sell millions, ( GOW2 sold 2 mills in US accrding to Vgchartz.com) but it wont sell many hardwere which sony needs .back in early 08 eveyone said 360 is outa steam and PS3 will contiuno to sell more but that didint happen .
If PS3 sell 2 mill consoles more than 360 in 09 ( which is a very optimistic view ) it still needs 6 mills to catch up in 2010 ! sony lost $1.1 Billion in 08 accroding to reports . and its losing money from every single PS3 . that means if sony cuts PS3's price , they gain some ground but they will loss more and more money in this bad economy ! thats what i think . all these numbers are from official reports from Sony and MS and NPD Group Salles Data and some From VGchart.com .


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AE86 on 17 January 2009

Well, thats some wall o'text you've got there.



Smashed on 17 January 2009

Anything can happen.



Kantor on 17 January 2009
jin_ivasawa said:
When PS3 was released , Xbox 360 was in 7.5 to 8 mill houses already.that means 360 had a 7.5 mill head start from the moment the PS3 got out ,that was in Nov 06 (360 sold 10,400,000 and the end of 06 ). a year and a month later ,after the 07 holidays , Xbox was 17,700,000 and the PS3 was 10 mill , Xbox 360 did better in holdays 06 cuz PS3 was new but PS3 did good in the whole 07 year with its $600 price .but for a console that should have sold 7 mills better it wasnt good Enough .

moving to 08 ,PS3 outsold xbox 360 in its early month till summer , but the economy crisis stroke and MS cut the 360s price to so called " Starting at $199 " ,that made the console a Huge boost in US and EU ,after that 360 outsold PS3 with a bigger margin , games like MGS4 or LBP or R2 did good for PS3 ( specially MGS4 ) but they werent the Console sellers that sony had hoped all this time .every single day 360 widened its gap , everyday when it weather got cold the situation got colder for PS3 .and as of Jan 09 the gap between PS3 and 360 is 8 mill according to everyone .

Xbox360 sold 28 and PS3 sold 20. these numbers mean that PS3 it back where is started , back in Nov 06 again . and were already in 09 , so even if next gen consoles come out in holidays 2012 ( 7 years after the 360 ) . PS3 needs to pull some serious strings to catch up . which i think i cant happen .

360 will obviously outsell the PS3 untill sony cuts its price which will not happen NOW atleast . till april or June whatever ( according to MR. Patcher ) 360 will widen its gap . and sony lost many of its key exclusives like FFXIII or Tekken 6 . KillZone2 will defenitly boost PS3 but it that enough? PS3 is still searching for the Halo Killer , cuz Halo 3 sold many many consoles and its the best selling Exclusive game between all the games on 360 and PS3.

some might say that God of War 3 will help , but GOW3 it not a console seller cuz none of the previous instalments were . it will sell millions, ( GOW2 sold 2 mills in US accrding to Vgchartz.com) but it wont sell many hardwere which sony needs .back in early 08 eveyone said 360 is outa steam and PS3 will contiuno to sell more but that didint happen .

If PS3 sell 2 mill consoles more than 360 in 09 ( which is a very optimistic view ) it still needs 6 mills to catch up in 2010 ! sony lost $1.1 Billion in 08 accroding to reports . and its losing money from every single PS3 . that means if sony cuts PS3's price , they gain some ground but they will loss more and more money in this bad economy !

thats what i think . all these numbers are from official reports from Sony and MS and NPD Group Salles Data and some From VGchart.com .

There that should help with readability.

Now, I have to respectfully disagree with you. If the PS3 were to outsell the 360 by 3 million this year (entirely possible), it would have 5 million to go. 3 million the year after, 3 million in 2011, and PS3 has a 1 million lead.

Of course, this will not happen with lineups and Halo killers, the PS3 needs a price cut. That is what this depends on.



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FaRmLaNd on 17 January 2009

Its more likely that the 360 will outsell the ps3 like it has every other year. Its doubtful that the ps3 can catch up now.



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puffy on 17 January 2009

Ahh such a breath of fresh air, an argument with actual evidence to back it up.

The XBOX 360 will continue to increase its lead up until Sony cuts the PS3's price, it doesn't matter how large or small that gap is because at the end of the day marketshare is maketshare.

Now everybody should know by now that Sony are being hit pretty hard financially at the moment and that may contribute to their ability to cut the price of the console. We should also know by now that Microsoft will counter any Sony price drop and are indeed looking at countering in spring.

So two things to look at are:

1. Will a price drop dramatically increase the sales of the PS3? Will the price drop put it ahead of the 360 and start to pull back the gap?

If there isn't as much demand for the PS3 it may only outsell the 360 by a marginal amount which wouldn't help it beat the 360 on the long run or the price may still be too high compared to the cheaper 360.

2. Will a further price drop from Microsoft hurt Sony's drop or will an increase in value hurt the PS3's drop?

A price drop from Microsoft may not actually increase demand at all and maybe they are planning to sweeten the deal instead. If people don't see value in the 360 now then a further $50 off say the Pro model probably won't sway them.



So what i see happening is if Sony drops the price of the PS3, there will be a big swing upwards in sales which will be countered by microsoft in some way and most likely the 2 consoles will have sales that are around the same week in week out bar big releases.

If there is no price drop then sales will continue as they have been and Microsoft will increase their lead considerably by years end.


The problem is MOMENTUM and I always say this and I'll probably continue to do so for a long while to come. If Microsoft can manage to increase their lead to say 10 Million or even more then when Sony do drop the price, it'll have less of an effect as the 360 will have the momentum.

When I say '360 will have the momentum' what i mean is that it'll be seen by as the mainstream console. The games it has, Gears, Halo, Fable etc will be the popular games just as the games on PS2 were seen to be. No matter how big the release, GoW3, GT5, R3, the public won't take much notice as they aren't the BIG mainstream games that everybody has. This will translate to lower sales and hence less third party investment which eventually means the PS3's all powerful engine will stall and a begin to fall into a nose dive...

It's a real threat but I think Sony still has time give it a bit more throttle and see some growth. Will the PS3 beat the 360 in marketshare? Probably not but it's not out of the question and if the momentum switched well.. there is plenty of time left before we see the next generation so it'll be very interesting..

P.S. The GameCube came last and it had some really nice games and the PS3 is on track to do better than it by a good margin so i don't think the fanboys should really worry



 

Jo21 on 17 January 2009

depends who leave first which is likely m$ even when ps4 show up ps3 should be selling at least 2 years more.



puffy on 17 January 2009
Jo21 said:
depends who leave first which is likely m$ even when ps4 show up ps3 should be selling at least 2 years more.

 

Honestly that's a stupid argument. It's the consumer that will dictate which will last longer. BTW read my last post, you may learn about a thing called MOMENTUM.

If the consumer is buying 360's and PS3's are sitting on shelves then why would Sony leave it on the market and why would Microsoft take the 360 off the market? It'd be extremely profitable by that time. 

That won't happen? It could very well happen and here you are saying Sony will have the PS3 on the market 2 years longer than the 360?

Why do you say it's likely that Microsoft would pull out first? It'd make much more sense for Sony to pull the PS3 off the market than for Microsoft. GameCube was out longer than the XBOX, did it magically eclipse its sales?

If sales are down this year then let me tell you, we've seen the PS3's peak year sadly and it's not gonna come back to life however if Sony pulls the finger out and does something then it will sell well for its life. 

Don't kid yourself though. Any 10 year plan Sony had was shredded a while ago.

 



 

Munkeh111 on 17 January 2009

Well if the gap just stays at 8m, there is a good chance that the PS3 will be on the market longer... I still think the PS3 will cut back the lead this year, the Xbox has already reached a mass market price, when the PS3 does, it will gain a lot of ground



Shanobi on 17 January 2009
puffy said:
Ahh such a breath of fresh air, an argument with actual evidence to back it up.

The XBOX 360 will continue to increase its lead up until Sony cuts the PS3's price, it doesn't matter how large or small that gap is because at the end of the day marketshare is maketshare.

Now everybody should know by now that Sony are being hit pretty hard financially at the moment and that may contribute to their ability to cut the price of the console. We should also know by now that Microsoft will counter any Sony price drop and are indeed looking at countering in spring.

So two things to look at are:

1. Will a price drop dramatically increase the sales of the PS3? Will the price drop put it ahead of the 360 and start to pull back the gap?

If there isn't as much demand for the PS3 it may only outsell the 360 by a marginal amount which wouldn't help it beat the 360 on the long run or the price may still be too high compared to the cheaper 360.

2. Will a further price drop from Microsoft hurt Sony's drop or will an increase in value hurt the PS3's drop?

A price drop from Microsoft may not actually increase demand at all and maybe they are planning to sweeten the deal instead. If people don't see value in the 360 now then a further $50 off say the Pro model probably won't sway them.



So what i see happening is if Sony drops the price of the PS3, there will be a big swing upwards in sales which will be countered by microsoft in some way and most likely the 2 consoles will have sales that are around the same week in week out bar big releases.

If there is no price drop then sales will continue as they have been and Microsoft will increase their lead considerably by years end.


The problem is MOMENTUM and I always say this and I'll probably continue to do so for a long while to come. If Microsoft can manage to increase their lead to say 10 Million or even more then when Sony do drop the price, it'll have less of an effect as the 360 will have the momentum.

When I say '360 will have the momentum' what i mean is that it'll be seen by as the mainstream console. The games it has, Gears, Halo, Fable etc will be the popular games just as the games on PS2 were seen to be. No matter how big the release, GoW3, GT5, R3, the public won't take much notice as they aren't the BIG mainstream games that everybody has. This will translate to lower sales and hence less third party investment which eventually means the PS3's all powerful engine will stall and a begin to fall into a nose dive...

It's a real threat but I think Sony still has time give it a bit more throttle and see some growth. Will the PS3 beat the 360 in marketshare? Probably not but it's not out of the question and if the momentum switched well.. there is plenty of time left before we see the next generation so it'll be very interesting..

P.S. The GameCube came last and it had some really nice games and the PS3 is on track to do better than it by a good margin so i don't think the fanboys should really worry

 

The Gamecube though, was the cheapest of the three systems to develop games for, thanks to the architecture that was used, which made programming games incredibly fast and easy.

 

The PS3 is the most expensive to develop for, and is notoriously difficult.

 

However, I do think that the PS3 will surpass the 360...eventually.

 



 

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