PS3 Cant Catch up To Xbox 360 . ( Pure Logic )

[Shanobi]

puffy said:
Ahh such a breath of fresh air, an argument with actual evidence to back it up.

The XBOX 360 will continue to increase its lead up until Sony cuts the PS3's price, it doesn't matter how large or small that gap is because at the end of the day marketshare is maketshare.

Now everybody should know by now that Sony are being hit pretty hard financially at the moment and that may contribute to their ability to cut the price of the console. We should also know by now that Microsoft will counter any Sony price drop and are indeed looking at countering in spring.

So two things to look at are:

1. Will a price drop dramatically increase the sales of the PS3? Will the price drop put it ahead of the 360 and start to pull back the gap?

If there isn't as much demand for the PS3 it may only outsell the 360 by a marginal amount which wouldn't help it beat the 360 on the long run or the price may still be too high compared to the cheaper 360.

2. Will a further price drop from Microsoft hurt Sony's drop or will an increase in value hurt the PS3's drop?

A price drop from Microsoft may not actually increase demand at all and maybe they are planning to sweeten the deal instead. If people don't see value in the 360 now then a further $50 off say the Pro model probably won't sway them.



So what i see happening is if Sony drops the price of the PS3, there will be a big swing upwards in sales which will be countered by microsoft in some way and most likely the 2 consoles will have sales that are around the same week in week out bar big releases.

If there is no price drop then sales will continue as they have been and Microsoft will increase their lead considerably by years end.


The problem is MOMENTUM and I always say this and I'll probably continue to do so for a long while to come. If Microsoft can manage to increase their lead to say 10 Million or even more then when Sony do drop the price, it'll have less of an effect as the 360 will have the momentum.

When I say '360 will have the momentum' what i mean is that it'll be seen by as the mainstream console. The games it has, Gears, Halo, Fable etc will be the popular games just as the games on PS2 were seen to be. No matter how big the release, GoW3, GT5, R3, the public won't take much notice as they aren't the BIG mainstream games that everybody has. This will translate to lower sales and hence less third party investment which eventually means the PS3's all powerful engine will stall and a begin to fall into a nose dive...

It's a real threat but I think Sony still has time give it a bit more throttle and see some growth. Will the PS3 beat the 360 in marketshare? Probably not but it's not out of the question and if the momentum switched well.. there is plenty of time left before we see the next generation so it'll be very interesting..

P.S. The GameCube came last and it had some really nice games and the PS3 is on track to do better than it by a good margin so i don't think the fanboys should really worry

 

The Gamecube though, was the cheapest of the three systems to develop games for, thanks to the architecture that was used, which made programming games incredibly fast and easy.

 

The PS3 is the most expensive to develop for, and is notoriously difficult.

 

However, I do think that the PS3 will surpass the 360...eventually.