The Official December NPD 2008 Thread

Euphoria14

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Euphoria14 on 15 January 2009

Other than the Wii, it doesn't look like anything to worry about.

iPhone = Great gaming device. Don't agree? Who cares, because you're wrong.

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Oyvoyvoyv

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Oyvoyvoyv on 15 January 2009

Khuutra said:

Oyvoyvoyv said:

Khuutra said:
Hm.

Software sales for the 360 and PS3, both in December and year-long, seem kind of worrisome if you only look at the top ten.

I'm sure it looks a lot rosier with the top 100, but just the top ten is odd. MGS4 didn't place for the year.

Well, MGS4 ended 24th on Americas (VGChartz) so it not placing isn't a big surprise.

Top 10 NPD and in paranthesis what VGC *0.9 had them at.

1. Wii Play w/ remote - Wii – Nintendo – 5.28 million (5.14M)
2. Mario Kart Wii w/ wheel – Wii – Nintendo – 5.00 million (5.18M)
3. Wii Fit w/ balance board – Wii – Nintendo – 4.53 million (4.64M)
4. Super Smash Bros. Brawl - Wii – Nintendo – 4.17 million (4.35M)
5. Grand Theft Auto IV - Xbox 360 – Take-Two – 3.29 million* (3.83M)
6. Call of Duty: World at War - Xbox 360 – Activision – 2.75 million* (2.59M)
7. Gears of War 2 - Xbox 360 – Microsoft – 2.31 million* (2.48M)
8. Grand Theft Auto IV - PS3 – Take-Two – 1.89 million* (2.05M)
9. Madden NFL '09 - Xbox 360 – Electronic Arts – 1.87 million* (1.8M)
10. Mario Kart - DS – Nintendo – 1.65 million (1.75M)

So overall, this means 3 things.

1. Multiplying with 0.9 is incorrect, by 0.85 or 0.87 would give a more realistic answer (or VGC overtrack almost everything... Which I doubt).

2. VGC is overtracking GTA IV 360 by a fair amount. Other than that, VGC is pretty spot on.

3. We have undertracked Call of Duty: World at War for X360 by ~ 10%

I guess more worrisome is the idea that, if you ague that GTA is a shooter (and many do), then the most popular titles on the HD platforms are all shooters, save for Madden.

Well, it is Ameria. People there are all violent madmen you know :D (oh crap, you're American!)

I have to say though, that's not true. X360 first. (BTW, I'll use VGC numbers here)

4 top sellers for 08 are shooters.

In the top 10, 5 are shooters.

In top 20, 8 are shooters (12 are "violence" games though).

Ps3:

Top 3 are shooting games.

Top 10 has 6 shooters

Top 20 has 10 shooters.

I was wrong it seems... ~ half of the titles are shooters. It's far less in Others and Japan though.

http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Avinash_Tyagi

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Avinash_Tyagi on 15 January 2009

mrstickball said:

Avinash_Tyagi said:

mrstickball said:
Then I must ask where are the shipments going? Japan has seen reduced Wii hardware sales the entire year - and you'd assume Nintendo diverted the shipments to elsewhere (NA/Europe). Don't you think they'd have a YoY increase similar to what we're seeing in Europe, if supplies were even?

Maybe NPD is just plain wrong?

And if thats the case, does that mean VGC is just plain right? NPD does have that advantage of tracking a significantly higher portion of the market, making it far less likely VGC would be right, and NPD wrong. What if NPD is wrong, and the Wii actually sold 1.7m units in December?

At any rate, we'll need to wait and see Nintendo's shipping report before declaring VGC right or wrong.

Just because NPD tracks a larger portion of the market doesn't necessarily mean that at any one time they will be more accurate, they are still sampling the market, and if their sample methods are off for eample, then they can still be very wrong.

But you're right, we won't know for sure until the financial data arrives in two weeks

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Khuutra

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Khuutra on 15 January 2009

Oyvoyvoyv said:

Well, it is Ameria. People there are all violent madmen you know :D (oh crap, you're American!)

I have to say though, that's not true. X360 first. (BTW, I'll use VGC numbers here)

4 top sellers for 08 are shooters.

In the top 10, 5 are shooters.

In top 20, 8 are shooters (12 are "violence" games though).

Ps3:

Top 3 are shooting games.

Top 10 has 6 shooters

Top 20 has 10 shooters.

I was wrong it seems... ~ half of the titles are shooters. It's far less in Others and Japan though.

Fair point, though I was referring primarily to NPD's top ten.

It does show why my girlfriend thinks of the two systems as being primarily for shooters and Final Fantasy, though.

Oyvoyvoyv

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Oyvoyvoyv on 15 January 2009

Khuutra said:

Oyvoyvoyv said:

Well, it is Ameria. People there are all violent madmen you know :D (oh crap, you're American!)

I have to say though, that's not true. X360 first. (BTW, I'll use VGC numbers here)

4 top sellers for 08 are shooters.

In the top 10, 5 are shooters.

In top 20, 8 are shooters (12 are "violence" games though).

Ps3:

Top 3 are shooting games.

Top 10 has 6 shooters

Top 20 has 10 shooters.

I was wrong it seems... ~ half of the titles are shooters. It's far less in Others and Japan though.

Fair point, though I was referring primarily to NPD's top ten.

It does show why my girlfriend thinks of the two systems as being primarily for shooters and Final Fantasy, though.

It isn't like there's a huge shift though. The difference from Ps2 to this gen is mainly that

1. Racers aren't selling

2. JRPGs aren't selling (or are yet to be released).

Shooters, Racers and JRPGs are all the genres in the Ps2's top 15.

http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Avinash_Tyagi

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Avinash_Tyagi on 15 January 2009

Racers are selling, did you not notice Mario Kart Wii?

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)