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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official December NPD 2008 Thread

frybread on 15 January 2009
Brett said:

No adjustments this month guys, I'm happy with all of our figures. I believe the disparity in Wii sales is more of a cumulative thing over the year and maybe adjustments being made to ensure that year end totals line up, similar with MK Wii.

Everything else looks to be in good agreement - well within any margins of error that we would expect.

 

 And Brett slams the gloves down!  It's now VGC vs NPD



PC + Wii owners unite.  Our last-gen dying platforms have access to nearly every 90+ rated game this gen.  Building a PC that visually outperforms PS360 is cheap and easy.    Oct 7th 2010 predictions (made Dec 17th '08)
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Wii: 10^8

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NJ5 on 15 January 2009
mrstickball said:
NJ - I'm trying to give Nintendo the benefit of the doubt. I don't find any reasonable explanation as to why Nintendo wouldn't have moved more units other than economic downturn, or user trends changing in terms of their blistering pace of buying Wiis - Maybe the surge in Wii sales in November allowed the Wii to be bought by those finally desiring to get their hands on it, without supply constraints?

That's not to say it's crested by any means, but may show that we're reaching some sort of level with supply and demand.

I just find it hard to believe given Nintendo's supply philosophy. The reason why stockpiling exists in the first place is to increase supply when demand is highest. Obviously demand is highest during Christmas, as people buy Wiis both for themselves and as presents. It would be quite strange if Nintendo thought that demand would be lower in December.

Anyway, we may never know what truly happened... The shipment reports are for the whole quarter after all.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

mrstickball on 15 January 2009

Then I must ask where are the shipments going? Japan has seen reduced Wii hardware sales the entire year - and you'd assume Nintendo diverted the shipments to elsewhere (NA/Europe). Don't you think they'd have a YoY increase similar to what we're seeing in Europe, if supplies were even?



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

NJ5 on 15 January 2009
mrstickball said:
Then I must ask where are the shipments going? Japan has seen reduced Wii hardware sales the entire year - and you'd assume Nintendo diverted the shipments to elsewhere (NA/Europe). Don't you think they'd have a YoY increase similar to what we're seeing in Europe, if supplies were even?

The euro is still quite higher than the dollar, so it would make sense to divert supply to Europe if some European countries were also supply constrained. That's just one of the possibilities though.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Avinash_Tyagi on 15 January 2009
mrstickball said:
Then I must ask where are the shipments going? Japan has seen reduced Wii hardware sales the entire year - and you'd assume Nintendo diverted the shipments to elsewhere (NA/Europe). Don't you think they'd have a YoY increase similar to what we're seeing in Europe, if supplies were even?

 

 Maybe NPD is just plain wrong?



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Oyvoyvoyv on 15 January 2009
Khuutra said:
Hm.

Software sales for the 360 and PS3, both in December and year-long, seem kind of worrisome if you only look at the top ten.

I'm sure it looks a lot rosier with the top 100, but just the top ten is odd. MGS4 didn't place for the year.

Well, MGS4 ended 24th on Americas (VGChartz) so it not placing isn't a big surprise.

Top 10 NPD and in paranthesis what VGC *0.9 had them at.

1. Wii Play w/ remote - Wii – Nintendo – 5.28 million (5.14M)
2. Mario Kart Wii w/ wheel – Wii – Nintendo – 5.00 million (5.18M)
3. Wii Fit w/ balance board – Wii – Nintendo – 4.53 million (4.64M)
4. Super Smash Bros. Brawl - Wii – Nintendo – 4.17 million (4.35M)
5. Grand Theft Auto IV - Xbox 360 – Take-Two – 3.29 million* (3.83M)
6. Call of Duty: World at War - Xbox 360 – Activision – 2.75 million* (2.59M)
7. Gears of War 2 - Xbox 360 – Microsoft – 2.31 million* (2.48M)
8. Grand Theft Auto IV - PS3 – Take-Two – 1.89 million* (2.05M)
9. Madden NFL '09 - Xbox 360 – Electronic Arts – 1.87 million* (1.8M)
10. Mario Kart - DS – Nintendo – 1.65 million (1.75M)

 

So overall, this means 3 things.

 

1. Multiplying with 0.9 is incorrect, by 0.85 or 0.87 would give a more realistic answer (or VGC overtrack almost everything... Which I doubt).

2. VGC is overtracking GTA IV 360 by a fair amount. Other than that, VGC is pretty spot on.

3. We have undertracked Call of Duty: World at War for X360 by ~ 10%

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

NJ5 on 15 January 2009

In another note, is there any more data for software? It would be nice to see the games outside the top 10.



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Khuutra on 15 January 2009
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Khuutra said:
Hm.

Software sales for the 360 and PS3, both in December and year-long, seem kind of worrisome if you only look at the top ten.

I'm sure it looks a lot rosier with the top 100, but just the top ten is odd. MGS4 didn't place for the year.

Well, MGS4 ended 24th on Americas (VGChartz) so it not placing isn't a big surprise.

Top 10 NPD and in paranthesis what VGC *0.9 had them at.

1. Wii Play w/ remote - Wii – Nintendo – 5.28 million (5.14M)
2. Mario Kart Wii w/ wheel – Wii – Nintendo – 5.00 million (5.18M)
3. Wii Fit w/ balance board – Wii – Nintendo – 4.53 million (4.64M)
4. Super Smash Bros. Brawl - Wii – Nintendo – 4.17 million (4.35M)
5. Grand Theft Auto IV - Xbox 360 – Take-Two – 3.29 million* (3.83M)
6. Call of Duty: World at War - Xbox 360 – Activision – 2.75 million* (2.59M)
7. Gears of War 2 - Xbox 360 – Microsoft – 2.31 million* (2.48M)
8. Grand Theft Auto IV - PS3 – Take-Two – 1.89 million* (2.05M)
9. Madden NFL '09 - Xbox 360 – Electronic Arts – 1.87 million* (1.8M)
10. Mario Kart - DS – Nintendo – 1.65 million (1.75M)

 

So overall, this means 3 things.

 

1. Multiplying with 0.9 is incorrect, by 0.85 or 0.87 would give a more realistic answer (or VGC overtrack almost everything... Which I doubt).

2. VGC is overtracking GTA IV 360 by a fair amount. Other than that, VGC is pretty spot on.

3. We have undertracked Call of Duty: World at War for X360 by ~ 10%

 

I guess more worrisome is the idea that, if you ague that GTA is a shooter (and many do), then the most popular titles on the HD platforms are all shooters, save for Madden.



mrstickball on 15 January 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
mrstickball said:
Then I must ask where are the shipments going? Japan has seen reduced Wii hardware sales the entire year - and you'd assume Nintendo diverted the shipments to elsewhere (NA/Europe). Don't you think they'd have a YoY increase similar to what we're seeing in Europe, if supplies were even?

  Maybe NPD is just plain wrong?

And if thats the case, does that mean VGC is just plain right? NPD does have that advantage of tracking a significantly higher portion of the market, making it far less likely VGC would be right, and NPD wrong. What if NPD is wrong, and the Wii actually sold 1.7m units in December?

At any rate, we'll need to wait and see Nintendo's shipping report before declaring VGC right or wrong.

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

colonelstubbs on 15 January 2009

wii hilariously overtracked....by far. My god



I hope my 360 doesn't RRoD
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