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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official December NPD 2008 Thread

TWRoO said:
koffieboon said:
FishyJoe said:
More evidence of the massive EA RB2 Wii screwup:

http://ps2.ign.com/articles/945/945695p1.html

According to data from the NPD group, the Wii version of Rock Band was the franchise's best-selling SKU last year with over a million units sold. The PlayStation 2 version was right behind it. Rock Band Wii and PS2 were the 29th and 31st best-selling games of the year, respectively.

The original Xbox 360 Rock Band came in at just under 800,000 units. Rock Band 2 on 360, available since September, sold just under 600,000 units.

The NPD data isn't clear which SKUs are Special Editions and which are the game only. Rock Band 2 on Wii was released right at the tail end of the year and moved just over 150,000 units.

You're right, EA can't be happy seeing that the Wii version of Guitar Hero is by far the best selling SKU. It must be close to 1.5 million according to NPD, while the 360 version hasn't even crossed 1 million yet (judging by the fact it isn't in the top 10 in December and was ranked 15th in November) But I guess they at least got some sales from the original Rock Band and the sequel did manage to sell 150k in only 2 weeks.

Btw, LTD the original Rock Band on 360 must still be above the Wii version, cause part of its sales took place in 2007. Still I'm pretty surprised the Wii version got to a million in sales considering it is a port of the lousy PS2 version.

 

 

They certainly make for an interesting graph;
http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=America&game1=Rock+Band+-+Wii®2=America&game2=Rock+Band+-+PS3®3=America&game3=Rock+Band+-+X360&weeks=88

It is an interesting graph, but Vgchartz does have the 360 version actually outselling the Wii version for the whole of 2008.

 



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So from the press releases and the new info Wii took 9 of the top 20? And we already know they cover 7 of the remaining top 30 on either Wii/DS as well leaving only 3 more spots in the top 30 for the other consoles combined.

Also from Nintendos PR we can deduce that Shaun White did more than 150k for the month of December putting it at 250k+ LTD thusfar. I may be very late to the party here, but the software doesnt sell on Wii thing is so completely dead in the water. And if PS3 isnt careful it could quickly adopt that title. Also surprisingly although it probably shouldnt be, They started advertising CoD Wii in December and it did pick up, not bad at all.

 

Also more on Wii's supply constraints in December:

 

Research firm believes supply constraints held back US Wii sales in December to the tune of two million units.

EEDAR, a research firm specialising in the video game industry, has issued a post NPD statement explaining why its Wii projections for the month were so far off the mark - the firm had expected Wii sales for December in the US to come in at 3.2 million units, a million units more than the actual figure.

"First, it appears our projections for the Nintendo Wii in December missed the mark. Projections are always a complex task; one significant factor for the Wii in our December calculations was examining previous hardware trends," stated EEDAR. "These indicated that the Wii, particularly in lieu of the holiday season and historical December trends, would outperform its November number by a significant margin. Clearly, that did not actually turn out to be the case."

However, EEDAR believes Wii sales could have been doubled if supply hadn't been an issue.

"These Wii figures are not any indication that is demand slowing down," explained EEDAR. "The Nintendo Wii is going through supply just as quick as they have before and these numbers merely reflect the large disparity between supply and demand. We still believe the Nintendo Wii would have sold north of 4 million units have supply and demand been in equilibrium."


http://www.videogamer.com/news/16-01-2009-10406.html

 

Even the analyst have a hard time forecasting for it.



FishyJoe said:

Here is the top 20 software. It can't be good the playstation family had only 2 titles.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=21906

 

Well we know that AC: CF at number 10 sold 500k units. The last 5 of the top 10 only span about 350k, with 7-10 being only about 150k from each other, I think it's ok to think that COD:WaW Wii is being undertracked, which also means it's doing a lot better than it is now (not that it's doing all that bad right now).

Kind of hard to say though.

I am suprised by the appearance of Shaun White and COD Wii in the top 20, especially considering LBP didn't make it. Note that VGC has LBP at 300k for December (using the montly feature) compared to only 170k for COD Wii. Also ahead of COD Wii are games like de Blob, Smash Bros, SMG, and more, none of which appear on the top 10 Wii games for December 08.



Esa-Petteri said:
alpha_dk said:
Esa-Petteri said:

No need for that, there is even big stacks of wiis available where I live.

 

Well, considering NJ5 specified America and you're from the UK, and it is now halfway through January instead of December, it seems like that's completely irrelevant?  The point is, we're talking about a major holiday season in America.  There's evidence the Wii was selling out in many retailers here.  Therefore, if Nintendo reports significantly larger US shipments than NPD tracked, it's pretty clear what happened.  Hence, waiting for the quarterly reports before adjusting anything.

Yeah, it is pretty clear. Ninty did not sell everything it shipped. Omg!

 

Don't push it! That's a warning.

Wii was sold out in the US in December, therefore shipped = sold and Nintendo will release its shipment figures January 29th. It's not that hard to understand.

 



BengaBenga said:

Wii was sold out in the US in December, therefore shipped = sold and Nintendo will release its shipment figures January 29th. It's not that hard to understand.

I remember in the old days that Nintendo had such a stranglehold on the industry that they could demand retailers to report back to them with sold-to-consumer numbers and actually get those numbers so they could be reported.

When did they stop doing that?



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Just realized....

Prince of Persia

Mirrors Edge

Resistance 2

Tomb Raider

 

Bombs? I think R2 did a few numbers at least last month but ME POP and TR are definitely not making back their budgets, no way no how.

 



BengaBenga said:
Esa-Petteri said:

Yeah, it is pretty clear. Ninty did not sell everything it shipped. Omg!

 

Don't push it! That's a warning.

Wii was sold out in the US in December, therefore shipped = sold and Nintendo will release its shipment figures January 29th. It's not that hard to understand.

 

 

Whoa. How could I have been so dumb that I could believe NPD and not a random guy on internet. Damn, sorry about that. Anyway we haven't seen those shipped figures yet, maybe they will match npd numbers.



Esa-Petteri said:
BengaBenga said:
Esa-Petteri said:

Yeah, it is pretty clear. Ninty did not sell everything it shipped. Omg!

Don't push it! That's a warning.

Wii was sold out in the US in December, therefore shipped = sold and Nintendo will release its shipment figures January 29th. It's not that hard to understand.

Whoa. How could I have been so dumb that I could believe NPD and not a random guy on internet. Damn, sorry about that. Anyway we haven't seen those shipped figures yet, maybe they will match npd numbers.

This is just statistics.

Consumer demand trends indicate that if x console sells y amount in November it will sell 1.5y in December. This is always, always, always true, especially for lead consoles, save for when they are limited by supply.

In order for the NPD's numbers to not be explainable by limited supply, it would mean that the Wii's demand would have to drop off at a level nearly unprecedented in the history of the industry, or any industry. Death in demand for a leading console is a slow thing, something which occurs over a period of years, not weeks.

Edit: Well I guess you can read what I'm saying even if you can't respond.



Esa-Petteri said:
BengaBenga said:
Esa-Petteri said:

Yeah, it is pretty clear. Ninty did not sell everything it shipped. Omg!

 

Don't push it! That's a warning.

Wii was sold out in the US in December, therefore shipped = sold and Nintendo will release its shipment figures January 29th. It's not that hard to understand.

 

 

Whoa. How could I have been so dumb that I could believe NPD and not a random guy on internet. Damn, sorry about that. Anyway we haven't seen those shipped figures yet, maybe they will match npd numbers.

So what are you doing here?



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

On a completely different note, does Circuit City provide data to NPD and does anybody know how big their marketshare in the games business is?