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Forums - Sales Discussion - 50 million consumer Wii sales at end of fiscal year, possible?

misterd on 29 December 2008
TWRoO said:
misterd said:
yushire said:
Nick Laurence said:


- Price drop to 199
- Mario Galaxy pack-in
- MotionPlus pack-in

 

If that happens Wiis will be in 100 million even not in the end of the year not including the christmas season and Ninty was sold out of the Wii in time for the christmas season.

 

 

Unlikely. The problem with Wii sales to date has not been price or value, but availability. At current manufacturing rates Nintendo could drop the price to $20 and include a coupon for a free hand job, but they still won't sell any faster.

If I remember rightly, Nintendo was making about 2.4m Wii's per year, and they are still selling out in the US. That means, at most, they can sell 25 million Wiis next year, bringing them to 70m.

Of course none of us expects the manufacturing rate to stay the same (and it may have increased late this year as well), but they simply can't ramp up production to 5m a month. At most, I would guess, would be 3m, and that'll take a few months to do, so really you're looking at maybe an extra 0.6 consoles a month or so for the latter part of the year (April at the earliest). Increased manufacturing will likely net them only another 3-5 m. 

@red... you mean per month.
@blue... 2.4 million per month is 28.8 million per year, with 46m at the end of this year that would bring the total to almost 75 million.

 

Wow. See what happens when you post tired? Thanks for the catch. The main point, though, remain - no way in hell the Wii sells 100m next year, and even with a production bump they'd have a hard time hitting 80.

 



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bigjon on 29 December 2008
yushire said:
BengaBenga said:
It's more or less a certainty because Nintendo's projection is 52 million April 1st 2009 and Nintendo always is very conservative in its shipment estimates.

 

 So Nintendo are conservative at that estimates? So they really think they can sell more than 52 million Wiis at the end of the fiscal year?

 

 remember, even though wii sales are extemely high, there is always the possibility they could be higher, remember wow many though ioi was too high for Nov... then he ended being 400k low for US alone. December is a bigger month and being off by 300k, found be less than 10%, it would take just a 20% error and the Wii could end up being 600k higher.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

misterd on 29 December 2008
bigjon said:
yushire said:
BengaBenga said:
It's more or less a certainty because Nintendo's projection is 52 million April 1st 2009 and Nintendo always is very conservative in its shipment estimates.

 

 So Nintendo are conservative at that estimates? So they really think they can sell more than 52 million Wiis at the end of the fiscal year?

 

 remember, even though wii sales are extemely high, there is always the possibility they could be higher, remember wow many though ioi was too high for Nov... then he ended being 400k low for US alone. December is a bigger month and being off by 300k, found be less than 10%, it would take just a 20% error and the Wii could end up being 600k higher.

 

 

The math backs up Nintendo.

They sell out every month. They make 2.4m Wii's each month. End of fiscal year is in 4 months:

 2.4 m Wii's x 4 mos = 9.6m Wii's

At the low end Nintendo has 44m Wii's by end of this year, and another 9-10 would put it safely above 52.



NJ5 on 29 December 2008
misterd said:
bigjon said:
yushire said:
BengaBenga said:
It's more or less a certainty because Nintendo's projection is 52 million April 1st 2009 and Nintendo always is very conservative in its shipment estimates.

 

 So Nintendo are conservative at that estimates? So they really think they can sell more than 52 million Wiis at the end of the fiscal year?

 

 remember, even though wii sales are extemely high, there is always the possibility they could be higher, remember wow many though ioi was too high for Nov... then he ended being 400k low for US alone. December is a bigger month and being off by 300k, found be less than 10%, it would take just a 20% error and the Wii could end up being 600k higher.

 

 

The math backs up Nintendo.

They sell out every month. They make 2.4m Wii's each month. End of fiscal year is in 4 months:

 2.4 m Wii's x 4 mos = 9.6m Wii's

At the low end Nintendo has 44m Wii's by end of this year, and another 9-10 would put it safely above 52.

During non-holiday months, they usually sell only 75% of production. However, they may ship more in March to hit their forecast. They will hit their forecast in any case...

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

dib8rman on 29 December 2008

Right, but I'm going on a past article which is the closest relation market wise to what the Wii is than any article I've seen anywhere before. The Wii is called a Blue Ocean product, I'm not skeptic on it's title but I am also not very educated on what it implies, only the more superficial meanings are what I've seen apply.

To that end, a member of this site tracked a similar Blue Ocean product (Nintendo DS) and noted that the DS peaked in it's third year on the market. 2009 will be the Wii's third year as well, so the assumption is slightly educated.

Shatter records, sure... if it can shatter old records of other consoles why not shatter it's own.



I'm Unamerica and you can too.

The Official Huge Monster Hunter Thread: 



The Hunt Begins 4/20/2010 =D

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Avinash_Tyagi on 29 December 2008
dib8rman said:
Right, but I'm going on a past article which is the closest relation market wise to what the Wii is than any article I've seen anywhere before. The Wii is called a Blue Ocean product, I'm not skeptic on it's title but I am also not very educated on what it implies, only the more superficial meanings are what I've seen apply.

To that end, a member of this site tracked a similar Blue Ocean product (Nintendo DS) and noted that the DS peaked in it's third year on the market. 2009 will be the Wii's third year as well, so the assumption is slightly educated.

Shatter records, sure... if it can shatter old records of other consoles why not shatter it's own.

Actually according to this:

 http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=DS&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=------&cons3=X360&reg3=------&weeks=220&weekly=1

 

The DS still hasn't peaked yet



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)