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Forums - Sales Discussion - 50 million consumer Wii sales at end of fiscal year, possible?

yushire on 29 December 2008
dib8rman said:
9 months is more than enough time to sell 28 million, 3 million basically a month, and I'm going to say the average would be 2.5 million a month which is in line with what I was reffering to above, so relatively if your speaking about 9 months then adding two months to my calculation on 7 would be around 28 million.

What I don't understand is why Yushire was arguing my point knowing that you were speaking about 9 months and I was speaking about 7 where all I needed was clarification. I did also note that I wasn't sure if you were counting April.

 

 Oh I thought ur making a sarcastic post like leo-j's posts sorry about that.



end of core gaming days prediction:

 

E3 2006-The beginning of the end. Wii introduced

 

E3 2008- Armageddon. Wii motion plus introduced. Wii Music. Reggie says Animal crossing was a core game. Massive disappointment. many Wii core gamers selling their Wii.

 

E3 2010- Tape runs out

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_Tape_runs_out.jpg

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Nick Laurence on 29 December 2008

I think by the end of FY2009, Wii will be sitting at around 75 mil.

If sales ever dip:

- Price drop to 199
- Mario Galaxy pack-in
- MotionPlus pack-in



yushire on 29 December 2008
Nick Laurence said:


- Price drop to 199
- Mario Galaxy pack-in
- MotionPlus pack-in

 

If that happens Wiis will be in 100 million even not in the end of the year not including the christmas season and Ninty was sold out of the Wii in time for the christmas season.



end of core gaming days prediction:

 

E3 2006-The beginning of the end. Wii introduced

 

E3 2008- Armageddon. Wii motion plus introduced. Wii Music. Reggie says Animal crossing was a core game. Massive disappointment. many Wii core gamers selling their Wii.

 

E3 2010- Tape runs out

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_Tape_runs_out.jpg

misterd on 29 December 2008

3 more months. They manufacture more than 2m per month, and sell out what they make. The year will end with 45m Wii's or so sold world wide, so...

3 mos X 2m = 6m + 45m = 51m

And that's ignoring the .2 or .4 or whatever decimal can be placed after the 2, which could add another mil or so.

So, yeah. It can.



gog85 on 29 December 2008
dib8rman said:
9 months is more than enough time to sell 28 million, 3 million basically a month, and I'm going to say the average would be 2.5 million a month which is in line with what I was reffering to above, so relatively if your speaking about 9 months then adding two months to my calculation on 7 would be around 28 million.

What I don't understand is why Yushire was arguing my point knowing that you were speaking about 9 months and I was speaking about 7 where all I needed was clarification. I did also note that I wasn't sure if you were counting April.

Wii production is only at 2.4 million per month. lets say Nintendo ship no more than 52 million by end of fiscal year and don't increase production. 

they'll only be able to have 73.6 million (52 + [2.4*9]) shipped by end of 2009. even bringing forward some of january's stock won't get shipment to 80million by the end of 09.

shipment would have to be increased to 3.4million per month starting no later than July to have 80 million shipped.

a sell through of 80million would be even harder. sales would have to reach a new weekly average record. even higher than that of the DS. i haven't seen any software yet that convinces me to believe that demand would increase to such a height. though i'll be waiting for it to show in the next few months.

if the weekly average next year doesnt show an inrease early on, we may see a price cut midyear that would help boost sales.



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misterd on 29 December 2008
yushire said:
Nick Laurence said:


- Price drop to 199
- Mario Galaxy pack-in
- MotionPlus pack-in

 

If that happens Wiis will be in 100 million even not in the end of the year not including the christmas season and Ninty was sold out of the Wii in time for the christmas season.

 

 

Unlikely. The problem with Wii sales to date has not been price or value, but availability. At current manufacturing rates Nintendo could drop the price to $20 and include a coupon for a free hand job, but they still won't sell any faster.

If I remember rightly, Nintendo was making about 2.4m Wii's per year, and they are still selling out in the US. That means, at most, they can sell 25 million Wiis next year, bringing them to 70m.

Of course none of us expects the manufacturing rate to stay the same (and it may have increased late this year as well), but they simply can't ramp up production to 5m a month. At most, I would guess, would be 3m, and that'll take a few months to do, so really you're looking at maybe an extra 0.6 consoles a month or so for the latter part of the year (April at the earliest). Increased manufacturing will likely net them only another 3-5 m. 



yushire on 29 December 2008

Did MS and SONY have no problem with the production/availability? just asking...



end of core gaming days prediction:

 

E3 2006-The beginning of the end. Wii introduced

 

E3 2008- Armageddon. Wii motion plus introduced. Wii Music. Reggie says Animal crossing was a core game. Massive disappointment. many Wii core gamers selling their Wii.

 

E3 2010- Tape runs out

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_Tape_runs_out.jpg

TWRoO on 29 December 2008
misterd said:
yushire said:
Nick Laurence said:


- Price drop to 199
- Mario Galaxy pack-in
- MotionPlus pack-in

 

If that happens Wiis will be in 100 million even not in the end of the year not including the christmas season and Ninty was sold out of the Wii in time for the christmas season.

 

 

Unlikely. The problem with Wii sales to date has not been price or value, but availability. At current manufacturing rates Nintendo could drop the price to $20 and include a coupon for a free hand job, but they still won't sell any faster.

If I remember rightly, Nintendo was making about 2.4m Wii's per year, and they are still selling out in the US. That means, at most, they can sell 25 million Wiis next year, bringing them to 70m.

Of course none of us expects the manufacturing rate to stay the same (and it may have increased late this year as well), but they simply can't ramp up production to 5m a month. At most, I would guess, would be 3m, and that'll take a few months to do, so really you're looking at maybe an extra 0.6 consoles a month or so for the latter part of the year (April at the earliest). Increased manufacturing will likely net them only another 3-5 m. 

@red... you mean per month.
@blue... 2.4 million per month is 28.8 million per year, with 46m at the end of this year that would bring the total to almost 75 million.

 



yushire on 29 December 2008

so can SONY and MS can supply everyone if they want to? They dont have a problem with supply issues?



end of core gaming days prediction:

 

E3 2006-The beginning of the end. Wii introduced

 

E3 2008- Armageddon. Wii motion plus introduced. Wii Music. Reggie says Animal crossing was a core game. Massive disappointment. many Wii core gamers selling their Wii.

 

E3 2010- Tape runs out

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_Tape_runs_out.jpg

Alby_da_Wolf on 29 December 2008
TWRoO said:

It's actually almost certain, think about it.... it will have likely passed 46 million with the week ending 3rd January, or at least be very close to it.

Last year it sold over 4 million in the first 3 months of the year... and 4 million is all it needs to reach 50 million from 46 million.

of course this year it should see higher sales than last year, so I think it likely it will surpass 51 million by the end of the fiscal year.

I agree, maths don't lie.



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