So?

Even if Sony could properly predict every Microsoft move, what would that mean?  They could the the bus coming just before it ran them over?

People have been saying, "when BD and PS3 become cheap."  Well, newsflash: the PS3 is far too expensive to be sold as a BD player primarily right now.  People will be paying $99 for BD players  next Christmas, and chances are the PS3 will be $299 or higher.  Even if BDs themselves become "cheap" (ie: $20 new releases, $5-$10 for year old releases like DVD), they won't be a driving factor for PS3s.  Nor will they make fast progress surpassing the DVD market.

If the PS3 hits $299 by mid next year, sure, maybe it will sell 10 million.  But Sony most likely won't be able to afford that as they'll be fighting for profitability.

Depends on what turn around means... Supposedly they had turned around this year, then Microsoft got back all the lost gap and then some. Now Microsoft is poised to increase the gap during at least Q1 2009, potentially during three quarters (or even all) of 2009.

So I'm gonna say never. The PS3 is in 3rd place and it will likely remain there until the next generation starts.

I had a computer engineering professor who said he was often asked when fabrication processes would break down.  People used to predict that they'd never get to .80 micron.  Then never get to .35.  Then never get to .13.  He said it will never stop and joked that at least he'd only be wrong once, whereas all of his colleauges have been wrong many times.

The same thing sort of applies to this situation.  Most of the people saying, "Next year" have been wrong 3 times already.  NJ5 might never be wrong, or he'll be wrong once.

I think we will see a change in 2009 that will lead to a boost in sales. I think that 2009 is really the best time for them to redeem themselves. Their most prized exclusives are going to be released that year.

That sounds good. Someone should tell that to a certain Mr. Bruce.

when the PS3 can come up with a sku thats 299$ or get the current 80g at 299$ AAA games won't do much for it's sales unless they bundle the game with the console

the 80g and 160g are 100$ more than the Pro and Elite and i think the ps3 is doing fine against the Pro and Elite it's that arcade thats killing them if ps3 can get something out that's 100$ more than the arcade that's wen ps3vs360 sales will turn around

wen that well happen? my quess is no latter than Nov 09 but i would like to see it happened in Mar 09 or earlier as the 360 is not likely to counter with a price cut in March since they just had a big 1 in Sep 08

Microsoft will almost certainly do another price drop next year.  Sony can't just do a $100 price drop and expect to match against Microsoft -- there will be another MS price drop to meet them again.

Expect the Arcade unit to be $149 next year officially.

I'm sure in competitive business environments knowing what your market rivals are planning to do is of no use at all... right?

@BHR-3: That scenario doesn't make sense to me.

Sure, the 360 cut price just a few months ago. However, if the PS3 went down to $299, it would look like this:

PS3 w/ 80gb HD: $299
360 w/ 60gb HD: $299

I'm pretty damn sure the 360 costs less to produce - they would easily have room to respond. It may not be right away, perhaps it would be similar to this year (cut before the holidays), but Microsoft is gunning for second place, and they have the money to back it up.

It is to Sony's advantage. That's why Sony is not starting a price war with Microsoft unless they can be profitable at the same time. Because they know Microsoft has more money than them.