I think what's happening this year is establishing a pattern for the remainder of the generation. During most of the year the world vs. USA (Americas generally) and the UK means (partly thanks to Japan) that PS3 builds up a lead. During the final months of the year USA in particular sees 360 outselling PS3 3:1. Adding the UK's almost 2:1 during the holidays gives 360 a sales imbalance in those markets that the rest of the world can't balance out.

End result for the calendar year means virtually equal sales. Or near enough as means 360-PS3 ~3 million or thereabouts.

I think the thing that gives 360 the massive boost in the USA is clearly Kinect. Unlike Pachter who thinks Wii owners looking for that HD experience would be inclinded to go for the familiar, i.e. PS Move. If you think about it Wii owners who buy another console looking for an HD [+/- Family] gaming experience will probably be more interested in something different from motion controls than re-doing the Wii experience in HD. This means Kinect has more inherent appeal to (as Pachter condescendingly calls them) Wii upgraders.

If there is a Wii upgrader phenomenon elsewhere in the world then motion controls / family gaming isn't the motivation, because we see that Kinect is not selling at the same level outside the USA (except maybe the UK), but I would assume that those who are motiviated to get an HD motion gaming experience would tend towards Kinect regardless of nationality. So it's possible that people might be opting for PS3 in a higer proportion for reasons other than motion control (kinda obvious given Move it's selling at a huge rate anywhere).

But I wonder also if house size / room location for the console might be a factor which differs between USA and the rest. If you have a small rooom for your console gaming then Kinect is less viable than Wii/Move.

Anyway, my view is that PS3 won't pass 360 while 360 is still actively on the market. The only thing PS3 will do for a "technical" but unimportant in the grand scheme of things victory is outsell 360 for an equal time on market.

Probably after this generation stops being relevant Sony consoles always sells well long after their prime. Before the launch of PS4 and the NexBox it wont though i've been saying this since day one.

No

Coming in 2nd is not going to matter. The Wii is still part of this generation, whether it's games are HD or not. The handheld games aren't HD and they are part of this generation still. The XBox 360 obviously surprised Sony who thought that once the PS3 launched everyone would dump the XBox 360 and flock to the PS3. That didn't happen this year. As you can see by the current sales of the 360 and Kinect, it's still selling incredibly well. I'm still shocked it sold over 20K units in Japan. No one buys 360's in Japan, do they? The number of sales of the 360 in Europe is definitely too low. I expected 225-250K at least in those regions. I thick Microsoft O/S is hurting the XBox 360 in these foreign counties as they would rather play the PC instead of the XBox 360.

I don't think PS3 will ever catch the 360. Kinect is the difference maker that made sure of that IMO.

The PS3 will never pass the Xbox 360 because Microsoft has the twin powers of epeen and money. If it were a case where both were equally profitable with equally profitable parent companies then you'd make a strong case that Sony has more epeen to push sales ahead of the 360. However Microsoft put their extensive epeen on the line by stating all the way back in 2008 that the Xbox 360 was going to remain in 2nd. If the PS3 looked like it was going to pass the 360 they would cut the price because they would enter into epeen protection mode and they'd be willing to sacrafice money to do it.

My prediction: Kinect came out 2010, Xbox 360 S came out in 2010 also so to counteract the launch of the Wii U they'll also launch a revamped Xbox 360 sometime next year. There has been plenty of time to put something together to this effect.

There's no reason for MS to "counteract" Nintendo's Wii U. The only reason why they'd bother with another complete hardware redesign would be in the interest of packaging, more specifically, cheaper packaging, ie. smaller size, smaller die process for GPU/CPU, smaller PSU, etc. etc.

I don't think anyone would be fooled by marketing tactics that they were buying a new console from MS even though it would probably please current Xbox owners who wanted a second or third Xbox 360. 

By the time the Wii U releases, MS will already have a huge price advantage which would only be offset if Nintendo launches with The Best Debut Line Up Ever, which we all know never happens in reality for any new console. What you'll have is a $200-250 Xbox 360 (including either HDD or Kinect sensor) with a 7 year back catalog of games with new games still in development, versus a $300-400 Wii U that will be getting the obligatory Nintendo developed titles along with the same third party titles that will be showing up on the Xbox 360 and PS3.

No, I dont... probably about less than a mil by the end of this gen

Offcourse it will.

The question is: Will it be when the next gen happens or during the final stretch of this one?

But personally, its loose loose. If PS3 does it before the next Xbox and PS4, its a celebration of gen over gen failure, where as 360 did nothing but surpass Xbox 1 performance on every level.

To do it when the next gen is upon us signifies that PS3 was too weak to do it when the rivalry was relevant/in the spotlight.

Well 2012 is a pretty decent year for further revisions to the design:

Kinect needs to be revised to be simpler and cheaper to manufacture as well as to be able to cope better with smaller room sizes.

Xbox 360 needs to be revised to be cheaper to manufacture and it'd be interesting to see if they want to implement an ARM chip in the design in order to support the tablet version of Windows 8. Something like an internal PSU would be the best way to simplify the design.

They haven't actually cut the price in a while, however it makes sense and they made the best decision to keep the price high during their best sales season. It really is an open question as to whether they'll cut the price to boost sales in the slow seasons.