PS3 will sell more but only past the point of it really mattering (in terms of this gen being current). It will, like the PS2, have great legs when its cheap and in a slim version. I don't think it will be hitting 100 million or more before 2012, but it will keep selling past the 6 years like the other PS consoles have. The biggest limit on the PS3 is the price, but like with the PS2 that will go away eventually.
The Wii will win within the time frame it matters, it will hit 100 million or so, move on to the next incarnation within 2-3 years and that will be that. If the PS3 overtakes the Wii, which I think it will eventually, it will only be after the Wii is replaced by a Wii 2 of some sort at the same price point more or less (ala DS replacing the Game Boy Advance).
As to the 360, I know the fanboys are crowing now, but the 199 price cut only seemed to temporarily stop the bleeding. If you look at the numbers the 360 is selling almost exactly as it did in 07. If you look at sep-nov (after the price cut) the 360 is actually selling slightly worse this year then it did last year (100k less sep-nov thus far). I know some will say "but Sep was halo last year!" true, but this year there was Gears and Fable 2, so kind of a wash you would think right?
The PS3 is selling worse, yes, but its price is also double what the 360 and Wii charge so theres room to move down. The PS2 didn't sell a whole lot till the price dropped either, but once the price hit 199 it sold like gangbusters. The 360 ALREADY has hit 199 and it's selling...well about the same as when it was 299. If they can't sell anywhere near the most on the market at the lowest price is there really any chance of the 360 catching the Wii?
What is the next move if 199 doesn't help sales? 99 dollars? Anyone remember how well that worked for gamecube in the same position the 360s in now?
The PS3 isn't guaranteed to take off if the price drops to 299 then 199, but at least there's a chance of it happening (as it did last gen). It's already clear the 360 isn't on any kind of high trajectory increase since it already took the huge price cut and it didn't make much of a difference. Will the PS3 hit a high trajectory? It seems likely (I mean it costs twice as much as any other console and still sells pretty well).
The two guarantees seem to be that the 360 isn't going to take off (at best it will peak in the mid 50 mil range), the Wii is going to hit 100 million well in advance of the other two and lead when the next gen consoles come out. The PS3 is the wild card, it could win eventually in total lifetime sales or it could stay around 50 million lifetime with the 360. Really depends on when the price cuts come and how good games like God of War 3 are.
