I love the noobs that are in here calling the vets bluffs. For crying out loud, those of us that've been here for two or more years very probably have been analyzing these things for a while now.

At least give us some credit.

With that said, upped production beyond 2.4m/mo (28.8/yr) means at the very least 30m next year.

44-45.5m by YO2008 + >30m during 2009 = >=75m total by YO2009. It's a simple fact of numbers, people.

I wasn't aware 80 mil was the new 130mil

80 million is a tad too high in my opinion. 70m - 75m is my bet.

Probably 85 million.

Hey Avinash, edit some simple math logic (like what I said above) into your original post so these kids can see why saying 80m is too high is wrong. Pwn 'em.

70-73 million for me

Statistically 75M is probably the safe bet right now. Production issues will limit anything over 82M short of massive production increases (unlikely given the economic situation) and anything under 72M naturally implies a notable reduction in sales during year 3 (unlikely given console history shows year 3 is a peak year).

|72M < < < (75M) > > > > > > > 82M|

I think it will depend on how this year finishes up ...

The Wii sold 2+ Million units in November in the United States alone acording to NPD, and it is possible that Nintendo will have sold between 46 and 48 Million units by the end of 2008. In my opinion the lower limit on a reasonable prediction for Wii sales in 2009 is (roughly) 24 Million units and the upper limit would be 36 Million units; and the most realistic prediction would be around 30 Million units sold. These predictions would have the Wii's end of 2009 total between 70 and 82 Million units, with the most releastic prediction being 76 Million.

Wii past 100 million consoles sold by the end of 2009.

First question is, where will it be by the end of the year?

Over 45 million seems certain, with a high end of 47 million.

47 million by the end of the year would mean it would have to sell 33 million next year. Unless there's a production increase that won't happen. If the Wii can increase from its current record breaking sales next year, it is not impossible. But 80 million really is the high end of any prediction I would make.

70 million is in the low end of any such prediction.