I'm still dealing with his prediction that Wii Fit will outsell the entire GTA Franchise combined,which according to VGC numbers is around 77 Million.

EDIT: That, and his prediction that the Wii will outsell the PS1/PS2/PSP/PS3 combined, which is currently around 290 Million.

Price does not change things a huge amount unless that price is very high (IE the PS3). Look at the 360 sales, they are VIRTUALLY FLAT between Sept-Nov 07 and Sept-Nov 08. In fact the 360 sold 100k more between Sept 07 and Nov 07 then between Sept 08 and Nov 08. Dropping the price may have helped sustain the sales it had last year longer, but it by no means increased them. The PS2 and Wii did not take off only because of low price, they also were the dominant system in the public perception for their time.

That the 360 undercut the Wii by going to 199 vs 250 and barely hit last years numbers while the Wii more then doubled during the same time frame underscores that point. Remember when the gamecube went to 99 bucks to try and stay in the game and just fell further behind? Same thing here with the 360. You can't manufacture buzz with a low price alone.

As to the Wii the main limit seems to be production capacity. This is a HARD cap though. Nintendo would be stupid to make 40 million since it would only be sustainable for one year. What are they going to do, invest a bunch in new factory capacity so it can run for one year before dropping back to 20 million or so in production? The Wii may hit 80 or 90 million but it won't be until the end of 2010. You are assuming that the biggest month ever for the Wii (2 million) will be not only repeated but IMPROVED upon all next year which is just silly. Do you really think they're going to be making and selling over 3 million consoles in March 09? Alternately do you really think they're going to be selling 10 million in nov and dec 09 to make up for 1 million console march?

Even the PS2, which at this point in its life cycle was doing as well or better then the Wii, was NEVER gaining 40 million in sales a year, that is just silly.

 And are still rising.

"Lifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015"

Wii will sell over 300million by 2015!

The rest of your post was well-reasoned, but to this, this is all I have to say:

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&weeks=156

You're right kitchen sink. I forgot about those first few REALLY awkward months for the PS2 when there was no supply and they launched at a BAD time (was march or something if I remember). To make my point right I'd have to give the PS2 a mulligan on the first half year to year.

If you adjust the chart to start the PS2 off in November of its launch year it looks a lot more sensical.

@Impulsivity: The PS2 wasn't doing as well at this time of year. The Wii is lagging a bit in Japan (may catch up this December, the consoles were launched during different times of the year), but the Wii is a good margin ahead of it everywhere else. In America and Europe, it's tracking near 30% faster than the PS2. thekitchensink's graph is a bit messy since it doesn't take into account the different launch times...

OT: 35mil Wiis sold puts production at about 2.9mil. I feel that's a bit too much... I'm putting the Wii at 75mil, or ~2.5mil per month.

Illusions of grandeur at it's best

EDIT-  Why not make it 100%?

Not really such an outlandish prediction like some have reacted.

Wii will be at least 43m by this years end. Combined with the rate of 2.4m wii's a month all next year is + 28m.

That puts the wii at 71m without to much trouble.

Possible that in the later half of 09 the wii could be ramped up to its optimal Rate of 3m a month. Which could get the wii around 75m +.

It will pobably be the first console to reach 200,000,000 at this rate.

35M in one year??? Wow really are a believer! You can forget that, we are in a crisis right now and I think casual gamers will think twice before getting something that's not really important in their life.