Production was 1.8m/month (21.6m/yr) for most of 2007 and the beginning of 2008.

Then they ramped it up to 2.4m/month (28.8m/yr). That's EXACTLY a 33% increase.

If they increase by 33% again in March, that'll bring it to 3.2m/month, or 38.4/year.

38.4 for nine months (38.4 * (9/12)) = 28.8.

52m by the end of March + 28.8m for the remainder of 2009 = 80.8 million units shipped by January 1, 2010.

Given the Wii sellthrough rate, I'd estimate that no less than 78m of those 80.8 million will be sold by January 1, 2010.

If there is no production increase, then odds are they will max out around 75m. If they up production to 2.8m (which is my guess), then we will probably see around 78.

 i'll let history pwn them, when it does pass it next year

For one thing, a DS is much cheaper than a Wii. You can easily buy two DS's for the price of one Wii. Since they are cheaper, having someone buy them once (or even 3 times) isn't quite as difficult as getting to buy a Wii multiple times (good luck finding one anyway).

Besides, the DSLite is just a slimmer version of the DS, just like the PS2 Slim was. I don't think many people went and rebought their PS2 just for the slim version (unless their PS2 was breaking...). Many people did get the DS Lite because it was that much of an improvement (though I think the majority of people probably did stick with their phats for a while at least).

Also, I consider the DSi more of the next handheld from Nintendo more than just another DS, since it's games won't work on the DS, and they also removed the GBA slot, so the DSi only plays two generations of handheld games like all Nintendo handhelds - the DS generation, and the DSi generation. The fact that the DSi won't be coming to America/Others for another year shows that Nintendo DID release it because their sales were falling compared to the PSP - in Japan only though. If sales wouldn't have been falling, I feel Nintendo would have pushed the release back longer (they only announced it a few months before it was released, they could have easily not have announced it, hell, it might have been sitting waiting for release for months already).

Finally, handheld lifespans are shorter than consoles, especially now that Sony has become a major competitor in the handheld market. Depending on whether you consider the GBC a successor to the GB or simply a "DSLite"-like upgrade, the lifespans of handhelds have not been long, ranging from 12 years with the GB+GBC (or 9 years for the GB and only 3 years for the GBC), 3 years for the GBA, and the DS is now 4 years old, so it's about time it got an upgrade beyond the redesign of the DSLite, and I do believe the DSi is more of a successor, and not just a redesign, even though Nintendo makes it out to be more of a redesign, and this website is combining their sales. The DSi shares the DS name - it doesn't share the same console line as the DS, just like the "PS"3 shares the "PS"2 name, but they are not the same console.

So basically, there's no reason for Nintendo to try and release an HD Wii, because they are not behind in sales (quite the opposite - they can't them fast enough, adding another console probably won't help that much...), they haven't even dropped the price or added colors, and selling the same console to the same family multiple times doesn't work as well as it does with handhelds, as I've already covered, and Nintendo knows this better than anyone. They already released the Wii, which is much different than any console before it, while the competition released similar consoles to the consoles we've had for 20+ years. And we all know how that is turning out.

I'd also like to point out to one of your other posts about the PS2 doing better than the Wii at this point in its life - no, just no. The PS2 best calendar year was 2002, with about 21 million consoles sold. This year to the end of November, the Wii has sold 20 million units, and that's without most of December, so it'll easily hit 27 million if not more (3.5 million for America, 3 million for Others, 500k for Japan high ends), so I don't see how more next year, with increased production all year (compared to only half of the year this year), how the Wii cannot do more, and juts blow the PS2 out of the water.

Going back to the original topic - I'm not sure what it'll be, since I haven't looked at it in a while. My prediction table that I made last year wherein I calculated the sales of the 3 consoles over the next 5 years or so (and on which my 2008 totals that are in my sig are based), and I have the Wii at 70 million at the end of 2009, which I know now is way too low, but at the time yearly sales were capped at about 1.8 million a month, so now it's higher than that (which is why my Wii 2008 prediction is going to be low as well). Assuming the Wii gets to 47 million by the end of this year, I'll say that it'll reach 80 million by the end of next year. That means Nintendo only has to increase production to about 2.75 million a month (on average over the 12 months), so I feel it's definitely possible.

Course, with the way the Wii is... it's hard to know. Too many factors, especially knowing actual production, but also the fact that we cannot be sure where demand really is, since the darn thing is always sold out. Next year will be an interesting year, no matter what.

Actually, 80 million isn't too bad a guess. With no same-value competition, no indicator of market saturation, and no meaningful barriers in the way, Nintendo's end-of-2009 numbers should look something like 70 to 80 million, favoring on the high side. Of course, same-value competition emerging, market saturation being hit, or some other unforeseen obstacle emerging (such as a production bottleneck) could change that, but going by current standards, it's well on course to hit that range by the end of next year.

How am I "wrong"? I'm sure I'm not the only person out there that considers the PSP a handheld console..

ok let's take out the PSP, if the PS3 sells 45M lifetime we're looking at around 280M combined...yeah...still not happening.

 You're wrong because you tried tointerpret other people's predictions for them, I made a prediction and you can't come along and try and tell me what my prediction is, when you obviously don't know, handheld console is still a handheld first, I never said handhelds so when you assumed handhelds you were wrong.

Also PS3 won't reach 45 million lifetime, its struggling to even reach 20 million during the holiday season, 30-35 milllion tops for the PS3 is generous, which means a total sales of the three consoles at around 250-270, which the Wii has a pretty good chance of beating by end of 2015, which is seven years off (PS2, around 130 million, PS1, around 100 million, PS3 around 30-35 million tops, so when I say 270 million, i'm being generous)

70 million tops. I think unless something major happens 80 million is out of the question.

I'm not trying to troll or anything but I don't know of any major releases the Wii has planned for 2009 except for the conduit and wii sports resort.

Okay one question.

Okay lets say wii ends the year at 45 million. That would be about 25 million in 2008.  What makes you think it can sell 30 million in 2009 with more competition from PS3 and 360 and few big releases?