It costs more, but there's a greater install base for people to pick up your game...

Risk V. Reward...

Dewy's Adventure.

I hope this game crashes and burns as much as you do, but we both know it's going to sell a lot in the end. The industry is depressing sometimes, isn't it?

MGS4 or FFXIII.

MGS4 is costing Konami a fortune. If it fails to make profits, that's Konami's money going down the drain, not Kojima's, which is exactly why I expect them to bitchslap him out of the way sometime in the near future and port it to 360. PS3's little install base simply cannot support this game without everyone in every region with a PS3 picking up a copy. We all know how unlikely that is, and this isn't even taking into account the fact that PS3 lacks the casuals that helped make up a good portion of MGS1/2's sales. Either way, what happens will be interesting. Metal Gear was never the franchise that had to sell consoles; the install base was already there once the games arrived.

FFXIII, I think might have been able to turn a profit if it had been released this holiday season, but SE's feeling the burn from the high development costs and long development cycles. Let's also not forget their ambitious White Engine project to take advantage of the PS3...like Metal Gear, FF was never the franchise that had to sell consoles. I honestly don't know what the hell SE was thinking. This could end up being the next Spirits Within: a huge budget and an underwhelming performance. I don't want to see them go under because they put all their trust in the wrong console.

EDIT: Since I'm on the subject, I want to add The Last Remnant to this list too. I don't know what its budget was, but I don't expect it to do well at all. 360 and PS3 install bases are just too tiny in Japan. It might do well in America and Europe on the 360, but I'm pretty sure 360 fans are clamoring for an FF like Nintendo fans were on the GCN, not a new unproven IP.

IMO, games like MGS4 or FFXII are expected to do much better than to just break even. These franchises are expected to make 300%+ profit. If these games only break even or are just slightly profitable, then they will be a huge disappointments.

-Boogie (okay I admit it, it's more that I want this game to crash lol)
-Dewey's Adventure
-No More Heroes (I really hope I'm wrong on this one, but I think it will be unadvertised and go under the radar)
-Stranglehold
-Eye of Judgment (I unfortunately think it's going to go unnoticed)
-Er... a lot of shooters, to name a few: The Darkness (this one already failed), Stranglehold, Haze, Area 51 (They have to be kidding themselves if they thought this game would make a profit)
-Forever Blue
-Rock Band (it's too expensive, it won't sell)

Games that will turn a profit, but fail to meet expectations by a longshot:

-MGS4 if it remains a PS3 exclusive
-FFXIII
-GTAIV (I'm not expecting GTAIV to break 10 million this time around)
-MP3 (I love the game, but I fear for it's sales. It will sell somewhere in between the first and the second MP games)
-Killzone 2 (Again, it will turn a profit, but expectations for this game are getting pretty ridiculously high. It will end at around 4 million sales lifetime at best)

MGS and FF are massive franchises, but keep in mind that the PS2 had a much larger market. With a little under 4 million sold(or it might've already passed the mark), there is a very good chance that FF and MGS won't be massive hits like in the past.

I don't see FF going to the 360, but I can see MGS going that way.. maybe that's MS' strategy for Japan. Hope that MGS/FF bomb and somehow ports end up on the 360 to move millions of consoles.

Well I have to agree with you. I think that MGS players are the type of gamers that own all the platforms anyway, so they bought the PS3 already. And besides this, I think this game does not have that much of a fanbase anyway, it's more a game that you buy when you own the platform already, but you don't buy a platform for it. But maybe I'm wrong about that. Anyways, I think we can expect sales similar to Metroid's on the Cube, the lower end would be the sales of the second game and the higher end the sales of the first game.

 FFXII, on the other hand, will sell a lot units and be highly profitable without a doubt, but it will sell less than most of the other games of the series.

I expect Lair to bomb really hard.

I dont`t see Ratchet n Clank pulling great numberss.

I actually expect Heaveny Sword to do well, about 1m-1.5m.

You guys are joking right? MGS4 not turning a profit on the PS3? Even if the game was released right now with the userbase at 4 million it will still make a profit. Plus for the guy who said FFXIII might not make a profit all I have to say is it will. I bet FFXIII and MGS4 will make a profit in Japan alone.

I expect all Sony first party this year to turn a profit. Gamers are getting despret on the PS3 because there isnt a lot of games. I would be surprised if more then 2 games of theres didnt turn a profit.

diegomoroco777: I expect Ratchet and Clank to be the best selling PS3 game this year. Its a pretty popular series.