MGS4 or FFXIII.
MGS4 is costing Konami a fortune. If it fails to make profits, that's Konami's money going down the drain, not Kojima's, which is exactly why I expect them to bitchslap him out of the way sometime in the near future and port it to 360. PS3's little install base simply cannot support this game without everyone in every region with a PS3 picking up a copy. We all know how unlikely that is, and this isn't even taking into account the fact that PS3 lacks the casuals that helped make up a good portion of MGS1/2's sales. Either way, what happens will be interesting. Metal Gear was never the franchise that had to sell consoles; the install base was already there once the games arrived.
FFXIII, I think might have been able to turn a profit if it had been released this holiday season, but SE's feeling the burn from the high development costs and long development cycles. Let's also not forget their ambitious White Engine project to take advantage of the PS3...like Metal Gear, FF was never the franchise that had to sell consoles. I honestly don't know what the hell SE was thinking. This could end up being the next Spirits Within: a huge budget and an underwhelming performance. I don't want to see them go under because they put all their trust in the wrong console.
EDIT: Since I'm on the subject, I want to add The Last Remnant to this list too. I don't know what its budget was, but I don't expect it to do well at all. 360 and PS3 install bases are just too tiny in Japan. It might do well in America and Europe on the 360, but I'm pretty sure 360 fans are clamoring for an FF like Nintendo fans were on the GCN, not a new unproven IP.
Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"
