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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sony stepping up the plate in 2009

CaptDS9E on 02 December 2008

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fulcizombie on 02 December 2008
Kantor said:
fulcizombie said:
Kantor said:
Neoraf said:

The momentum is in Microsoft Hands.

When Sony will cut the prices... do you believe Microsoft will sit and stare?
Microsoft will probably cut another 100$ on Elites, and will replace Arcade by the Pro(60gb) at 199$.

Xbox Live is the online service of choice.
A true social phenomenon.

With all the big 2009 games for Microsoft (Mass Effect 2, Halo Wars, Alan Wake, Star Ocean 4, Halo3 ODST expansion, GTA4 Lost and Damned DLC, Ninja Blade, name it...), I don't know how Sony can gain ground...

For once, I think it's apparent that the PS3 has a bigger lineup for next year. KZ2, GoW3, FF13 and Versus 13 in Japan, Uncharted 2, the next R&C, Heavy Rain, LA Noire (it's made by Rockstar, it has to be good), inFamous, MAG, Twisted Metal, and of course Gran Turismo 5.

I agree, Sony is really stepping up its game next year.

 

 

Seriously like half of these titles won't even arrive in 2009 and some of them (like Uncharted 2, R&C 2 and possibly titles like heavy rain an infamous) will be completely irrelevant , in terms of sales' potential, just like resistance2 and motorstorm 2 are this year.

Every year's end is the same story with the ps3. The truth is that THE ONLY game that will help the ps3 is GRAN TURISMO 5 (and killzone 2 a bit). We had the same thing last year "next year with MGS4, LBP, Resistance 2 blahblahblah...."

Honestly Halo 3:OSDT will sell more than all of sony's 2009 combined and we've yet to learn the 360's line up because unlike sony (and its fanboys) it's all about about Fable 2 and Gears 2 (true monster hits) for MS RIGHT NOW.

 

Oh and The arcade sku will still cost half of what the ps3 will cost in the next holiday season and you can bet on that.....

Are you kidding me? Halo 3: ODST currently has a sales CAP of just over 8 million. And 100% of Halo 3 owners are not going to jump on this game.

Let's take WoW and WotLK as examples. 11 million subscribers, yet 2.6 million buy it first week, and I guarantee you after a year, the number will not be in excess of 5 million. Less than half. So we can predict perhaps 4-4.5 million for ODST?

Gran Turismo 5 is going to sell double that easily. KZ2 and GoW3 will easily cross 4 million, maybe 5 million. Heavy Rain and inFamous won't sell very well, but they will both be very good games.

It's foolish to compare LBP and R2 to GT5.

LBP is a new IP. It's 2D. There is an emphasis on creation as opposed to playing. You control a sack. Who expected this to sell well? note that that was not my opinion, but fact. In fact, I think it looks very good and will buy it soon

R2 is the second shooter from Insomniac games. We don't have Europe sales data yet, and when we do, it will be ONE DAY. R2's American launch week was more than 7x that of RFOM.

Gran Turismo 3 was the best selling exclusive last gen. Over 14 million sales. In fact, it's the second best selling game of that gen, fullstop. The only thing that sold better was GTA San Andreas, with around 17 million. GT is a massive franchise, and it has system selling potential probably as strong as Halo. Maybe stronger. We can safely predict 8 million LTD.

In fact, I predict that GT5 will sell more than Sony's entire 2008 holiday lineup combined. Certainly more than Gears 2.

Why does everybody keep quoting LBP's sales figures as a sign of things to come. LBP was a rare, one in a million game. It's unlikely we will see anything like LBP in 2009.

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry but if we use the "sony method" then halo 3 must have sold at least 20 million copies . Halo 3 did 4.8 million in the U.S alone at the end of 2007 according to NPd and 800k in the U.K according to charttrack again in the end of 2007. It has appeared time and time again in the U.K charts , it debuted at n.1 pretty much everywhere in the world (not called Japan) and i bet that its legs are 10 times better than the imaginary legs of sony's first party games. The halo franchise is still on the rise, the GT franchise (as evident by GT4 sales and GT5:p sales in the U.S) is in decline.

As for Gears 2 it debuted at n.1 again almost everywhere and it will have 2 monstrous NPD months with sales' numbers that sony games can only dream of. The first NPD month of gears 2 will be better than ALL OF SONY'S GAMES Npd months that we've known of COMBINED since the launch of the ps3.

This basically means Gears2 1st NPD month>>>>> LBP+Resistance+resistance 2+Heavenly sword+GT5:p+ Lair+ Folklore+Socom+Uncharted+R&C:future +Motorstorm+Motorstorm2 NPD appearances combined.

Once again the ONLY sony game with sales' power is GT5, i even doubt god of war's selling power. Anyway for now we'll watch Fable2 and Gears 2 destroy the sony line up with ease (hell fable 2 alone is enough for that) and we'll see what happens a year from now.....



ManusJustus on 02 December 2008

20xx year of the PS3.

Seriously, I think Sony is hurting with the most expensive console in a bad economy. Things might be a lot different if the economy was booming right now...



Dallinor on 02 December 2008
Dodece said:
Unfortunately this years rationalization is more concocted then last years rationalization primarily due to the undeniable fact that this year the PS3 had greater advantages then it will have next year. When the console could not win at its very best. Then it is highly unlikely to win when the competition is at its very best.

Microsoft has and will have the superior price point, and more so will be affordable to a larger cross section of the public. Vastly more consumers can purchase a two hundred dollar console then a four hundred dollar console, and more to the point the 360 due to its varying model system has a robust second hand market.

Microsoft had a first party lull this year which is not going to repeat next year. Yes Microsoft had a great many third party exclusives, but that is not the same as internally developed titles, or second party exclusives. Already we have reason to believe there will be a plethora. At least one from Bungie, one from Lionhead, Four from Rare, one from Ensemble, and one from Mistwalker. That is some serious delivery on tap for next year, and it can go higher.

Microsoft likes to purchase third party exclusives. I find it hard to stomach how recently in these debates this little detail that was once a crime against humanity has somehow disappeared from the debate. We talk about price, because that is what the Sony zealots want. Right now for them it is all about the price. At one time it was money hatting, and now its predatory pricing. Whether you like it or not Microsoft does get more then its fair share of third party exclusives. That is not going to change next year. That was a major factor this year for Microsoft's success. Those third party exclusives they bankrolled paid out for them. Yes Microsoft is going to buy third party exclusives next year. Something Sony has been resistant to doing.

Finally Microsoft has both momentum and dominance. That imparts two advantages that the 360 has not enjoyed in this console war. They have always held dominance, but never did they hold both it and momentum. That puts pressure on Sony. When your selling even if you do not have the most consoles out you are given some leeway. When you are not selling, and you are in the third place position you will be treated by the retail chain accordingly. The PS3 was making headway on shelves this year, but if the 360 is doubling sales there is little doubt retailers will give greater love to the 360. Giving it more shelf space, and more special offers.

To keep it short and sweet the PS3 is worse off in the upcoming year then it was this year. In fact it has almost no advantage to draw upon outside of name recognition which isn't changing the situation now anyway. So how can the PS3 do better for being worse?

Why was this year was "the very best" for the PS3? If anything, Sony have the most to gain from next year. A possible price-cut coupled with the possible release of some of the biggest titles for the system - (GT5, FFXIII, GOW3, KZ2).

Also as far as lulls go, what can MS produce in 09' that can rival their 08' holiday lineup for sales? I can't think of anything that could outpreform a Gears 2 and Fable 2 holiday combo, short of a full new Halo title. So far though, it's looking like only an expansion is coming. (It will still sell amazingly well I'm sure, but I think this holiday was bigger for MS.)

Also, Lionhead getting another title out next year? It has to be an expansion pack, historically it usually takes them about 3 years to get a new title out the door.

I remember Dodece, sometime this year before E3 you wrote a similarly long post about how MS were in a dominant position to unveil a ton of exclusives at the conference (and you listed a great deal of reasons) while Sony had blown all their exclusives and had nothing left to show. Then E3 rolled in and Sony announced just as much content as MS.



 

selnor on 02 December 2008
Dallinor said:
Dodece said:
Unfortunately this years rationalization is more concocted then last years rationalization primarily due to the undeniable fact that this year the PS3 had greater advantages then it will have next year. When the console could not win at its very best. Then it is highly unlikely to win when the competition is at its very best.

Microsoft has and will have the superior price point, and more so will be affordable to a larger cross section of the public. Vastly more consumers can purchase a two hundred dollar console then a four hundred dollar console, and more to the point the 360 due to its varying model system has a robust second hand market.

Microsoft had a first party lull this year which is not going to repeat next year. Yes Microsoft had a great many third party exclusives, but that is not the same as internally developed titles, or second party exclusives. Already we have reason to believe there will be a plethora. At least one from Bungie, one from Lionhead, Four from Rare, one from Ensemble, and one from Mistwalker. That is some serious delivery on tap for next year, and it can go higher.

Microsoft likes to purchase third party exclusives. I find it hard to stomach how recently in these debates this little detail that was once a crime against humanity has somehow disappeared from the debate. We talk about price, because that is what the Sony zealots want. Right now for them it is all about the price. At one time it was money hatting, and now its predatory pricing. Whether you like it or not Microsoft does get more then its fair share of third party exclusives. That is not going to change next year. That was a major factor this year for Microsoft's success. Those third party exclusives they bankrolled paid out for them. Yes Microsoft is going to buy third party exclusives next year. Something Sony has been resistant to doing.

Finally Microsoft has both momentum and dominance. That imparts two advantages that the 360 has not enjoyed in this console war. They have always held dominance, but never did they hold both it and momentum. That puts pressure on Sony. When your selling even if you do not have the most consoles out you are given some leeway. When you are not selling, and you are in the third place position you will be treated by the retail chain accordingly. The PS3 was making headway on shelves this year, but if the 360 is doubling sales there is little doubt retailers will give greater love to the 360. Giving it more shelf space, and more special offers.

To keep it short and sweet the PS3 is worse off in the upcoming year then it was this year. In fact it has almost no advantage to draw upon outside of name recognition which isn't changing the situation now anyway. So how can the PS3 do better for being worse?

Why was this year was "the very best" for the PS3? If anything, Sony have the most to gain from next year. A possible price-cut coupled with the possible release of some of the biggest titles for the system - (GT5, FFXIII, GOW3, KZ2).

Also as far as lulls go, what can MS produce in 09' that can rival their 08' holiday lineup for sales? I can't think of anything that could outpreform a Gears 2 and Fable 2 holiday combo, short of a full new Halo title. So far though, it's looking like only an expansion is coming. (It will still sell amazingly well I'm sure, but I think this holiday was bigger for MS.)

Also, Lionhead getting another title out next year? It has to be an expansion pack, historically it usually takes them about 3 years to get a new title out the door.

I remember Dodece, sometime this year before E3 you wrote a similarly long post about how MS were in a dominant position to unveil a ton of exclusives at the conference (and you listed a great deal of reasons) while Sony had blown all their exclusives and had nothing left to show. Then E3 rolled in and Sony announced just as much content as MS.

I'm betting Forza 3 will be ready for EU around Christmas. M$ will want to keep the pressure on, and give consumers no extra reason to purchase the PS3 if they can. Whats a bet Forza 3 graphically looks way better than 2 (and 2 was pretty sweet) couple that with marketing and they could hinder GT5 sales for PS3 HW. (Just so you know Forza is no sales slouch F2 is on it's way to 5 mill now.)

Also Alan Wake at Xmas 09 will be huge and marketed to hell along with ODST. There is also apparantly 8 First and second party games for next year not yet shown and we have a great 09 for M$.

The problem with the expected PS3 exclusives next year is that going by the previous 2 years of the consoles life, it's almost guarenteed that 2 games you mention for 09 on PS3 will slip to 2010. It's just the way it is with PS3 development. (points at GOW3 and FF13 2010)

 



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perpride on 02 December 2008
leo-j said:
Neoraf said:

The momentum is in Microsoft Hands.

When Sony will cut the prices... do you believe Microsoft will sit and stare?
Microsoft will probably cut another 100$ on Elites, and will replace Arcade by the Pro(60gb) at 199$.

Xbox Live is the online service of choice.
A true social phenomenon.

With all the big 2009 games for Microsoft (Mass Effect 2, Halo Wars, Alan Wake, Star Ocean 4, Halo3 ODST, GTA4 Lost and Damned, Ninja Blade, name it...), I don't know how Sony can gain ground...

 

 $99.99 XBOX 360 confirmed?

Free Xbox 360 arcade confirmed?

 



Spankey on 02 December 2008
Squilliam said:

Unless they can step up to the plate like this guy, I don't think they're going to make much headway in this generation.

 

hmm. I don't think it's his face he should be concerned about hiding.

strange though it looks like he's smuggling something under his shirt...looks oddly console shaped...

anyway, back OT, If Sony's got to bring anything to the game this gen, it's better marketing.



Proud Sony Rear Admiral

Dinomax on 02 December 2008

Guys please can we stop this year of the PS3 talk?

 

It was cute when the sales were close and there was hope but now its so clean cut of a winner that its like an episode of fist of the north star.  Yes you will get good games and it'll start to look good but in the end...

 

NPD comes around and you just get rolled again.



Dallinor on 02 December 2008
selnor said:
Dallinor said:
Dodece said:
Unfortunately this years rationalization is more concocted then last years rationalization primarily due to the undeniable fact that this year the PS3 had greater advantages then it will have next year. When the console could not win at its very best. Then it is highly unlikely to win when the competition is at its very best.

Microsoft has and will have the superior price point, and more so will be affordable to a larger cross section of the public. Vastly more consumers can purchase a two hundred dollar console then a four hundred dollar console, and more to the point the 360 due to its varying model system has a robust second hand market.

Microsoft had a first party lull this year which is not going to repeat next year. Yes Microsoft had a great many third party exclusives, but that is not the same as internally developed titles, or second party exclusives. Already we have reason to believe there will be a plethora. At least one from Bungie, one from Lionhead, Four from Rare, one from Ensemble, and one from Mistwalker. That is some serious delivery on tap for next year, and it can go higher.

Microsoft likes to purchase third party exclusives. I find it hard to stomach how recently in these debates this little detail that was once a crime against humanity has somehow disappeared from the debate. We talk about price, because that is what the Sony zealots want. Right now for them it is all about the price. At one time it was money hatting, and now its predatory pricing. Whether you like it or not Microsoft does get more then its fair share of third party exclusives. That is not going to change next year. That was a major factor this year for Microsoft's success. Those third party exclusives they bankrolled paid out for them. Yes Microsoft is going to buy third party exclusives next year. Something Sony has been resistant to doing.

Finally Microsoft has both momentum and dominance. That imparts two advantages that the 360 has not enjoyed in this console war. They have always held dominance, but never did they hold both it and momentum. That puts pressure on Sony. When your selling even if you do not have the most consoles out you are given some leeway. When you are not selling, and you are in the third place position you will be treated by the retail chain accordingly. The PS3 was making headway on shelves this year, but if the 360 is doubling sales there is little doubt retailers will give greater love to the 360. Giving it more shelf space, and more special offers.

To keep it short and sweet the PS3 is worse off in the upcoming year then it was this year. In fact it has almost no advantage to draw upon outside of name recognition which isn't changing the situation now anyway. So how can the PS3 do better for being worse?

Why was this year was "the very best" for the PS3? If anything, Sony have the most to gain from next year. A possible price-cut coupled with the possible release of some of the biggest titles for the system - (GT5, FFXIII, GOW3, KZ2).

Also as far as lulls go, what can MS produce in 09' that can rival their 08' holiday lineup for sales? I can't think of anything that could outpreform a Gears 2 and Fable 2 holiday combo, short of a full new Halo title. So far though, it's looking like only an expansion is coming. (It will still sell amazingly well I'm sure, but I think this holiday was bigger for MS.)

Also, Lionhead getting another title out next year? It has to be an expansion pack, historically it usually takes them about 3 years to get a new title out the door.

I remember Dodece, sometime this year before E3 you wrote a similarly long post about how MS were in a dominant position to unveil a ton of exclusives at the conference (and you listed a great deal of reasons) while Sony had blown all their exclusives and had nothing left to show. Then E3 rolled in and Sony announced just as much content as MS.

I'm betting Forza 3 will be ready for EU around Christmas. M$ will want to keep the pressure on, and give consumers no extra reason to purchase the PS3 if they can. Whats a bet Forza 3 graphically looks way better than 2 (and 2 was pretty sweet) couple that with marketing and they could hinder GT5 sales for PS3 HW. (Just so you know Forza is no sales slouch F2 is on it's way to 5 mill now.)

Also Alan Wake at Xmas 09 will be huge and marketed to hell along with ODST. There is also apparantly 8 First and second party games for next year not yet shown and we have a great 09 for M$.

The problem with the expected PS3 exclusives next year is that going by the previous 2 years of the consoles life, it's almost guarenteed that 2 games you mention for 09 on PS3 will slip to 2010. It's just the way it is with PS3 development. (points at GOW3 and FF13 2010)

 

I think Forza will have a bigger impact in NA then EU. It's a bigger seller there.

GT5 won't have any problems against Forza, it's a much bigger franchise. In fact GT5:P outsold Forza 2 in EU, and Forza has been out for over a year longer.

As for hardware sales, Forza 3 will need to be very impressive to pull car fanatics away from GT.

Alan Wake is a new IP and as such we can't judge it's sales. For all we know it could recieve terrible reviews and be a total flop. (I doubt it though, it looks great.)

The unannounced titles could contain a few bombshells, but as things stand at the moment it looks like MS have just had one their strongest (if not the strongest) software showings for a holiday season, and they will be hard pressed to match it in the coming years.

Sadly yes, those titles could indeed slip into 2010.



 

RPG on 02 December 2008
Dallinor said:
selnor said:

I think Forza will have a bigger impact in NA then EU. It's a bigger seller there.

GT5 won't have any problems against Forza, it's a much bigger franchise. In fact GT5:P outsold Forza 2 in EU, and Forza has been out for over a year longer.

As for hardware sales, Forza 3 will need to be very impressive to pull car fanatics away from GT.

Alan Wake is a new IP and as such we can't judge it's sales. For all we know it could recieve terrible reviews and be a total flop. (I doubt it though, it looks great.)

The unannounced titles could contain a few bombshells, but as things stand at the moment it looks like MS have just had one their strongest (if not the strongest) software showings for a holiday season, and they will be hard pressed to match it in the coming years.

Sadly yes, those titles could indeed slip into 2010.

Forza 3 was heavily bundled in NA for a very long period of time so it's not big as GT anywhere. GT is such as monster of a franchise it will shine no matter what competition it has, the fact that Forza 3 is what MS have to combat GT5 is saying a lot.