Kantor said:
Are you kidding me? Halo 3: ODST currently has a sales CAP of just over 8 million. And 100% of Halo 3 owners are not going to jump on this game. Let's take WoW and WotLK as examples. 11 million subscribers, yet 2.6 million buy it first week, and I guarantee you after a year, the number will not be in excess of 5 million. Less than half. So we can predict perhaps 4-4.5 million for ODST? Gran Turismo 5 is going to sell double that easily. KZ2 and GoW3 will easily cross 4 million, maybe 5 million. Heavy Rain and inFamous won't sell very well, but they will both be very good games. It's foolish to compare LBP and R2 to GT5. LBP is a new IP. It's 2D. There is an emphasis on creation as opposed to playing. You control a sack. Who expected this to sell well? note that that was not my opinion, but fact. In fact, I think it looks very good and will buy it soon R2 is the second shooter from Insomniac games. We don't have Europe sales data yet, and when we do, it will be ONE DAY. R2's American launch week was more than 7x that of RFOM. Gran Turismo 3 was the best selling exclusive last gen. Over 14 million sales. In fact, it's the second best selling game of that gen, fullstop. The only thing that sold better was GTA San Andreas, with around 17 million. GT is a massive franchise, and it has system selling potential probably as strong as Halo. Maybe stronger. We can safely predict 8 million LTD. In fact, I predict that GT5 will sell more than Sony's entire 2008 holiday lineup combined. Certainly more than Gears 2. Why does everybody keep quoting LBP's sales figures as a sign of things to come. LBP was a rare, one in a million game. It's unlikely we will see anything like LBP in 2009.
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Sorry but if we use the "sony method" then halo 3 must have sold at least 20 million copies . Halo 3 did 4.8 million in the U.S alone at the end of 2007 according to NPd and 800k in the U.K according to charttrack again in the end of 2007. It has appeared time and time again in the U.K charts , it debuted at n.1 pretty much everywhere in the world (not called Japan) and i bet that its legs are 10 times better than the imaginary legs of sony's first party games. The halo franchise is still on the rise, the GT franchise (as evident by GT4 sales and GT5:p sales in the U.S) is in decline.
As for Gears 2 it debuted at n.1 again almost everywhere and it will have 2 monstrous NPD months with sales' numbers that sony games can only dream of. The first NPD month of gears 2 will be better than ALL OF SONY'S GAMES Npd months that we've known of COMBINED since the launch of the ps3.
This basically means Gears2 1st NPD month>>>>> LBP+Resistance+resistance 2+Heavenly sword+GT5:p+ Lair+ Folklore+Socom+Uncharted+R&C:future +Motorstorm+Motorstorm2 NPD appearances combined.
Once again the ONLY sony game with sales' power is GT5, i even doubt god of war's selling power. Anyway for now we'll watch Fable2 and Gears 2 destroy the sony line up with ease (hell fable 2 alone is enough for that) and we'll see what happens a year from now.....
