Dallinor said:
Dodece said:
Unfortunately this years rationalization is more concocted then last years rationalization primarily due to the undeniable fact that this year the PS3 had greater advantages then it will have next year. When the console could not win at its very best. Then it is highly unlikely to win when the competition is at its very best.
Microsoft has and will have the superior price point, and more so will be affordable to a larger cross section of the public. Vastly more consumers can purchase a two hundred dollar console then a four hundred dollar console, and more to the point the 360 due to its varying model system has a robust second hand market.
Microsoft had a first party lull this year which is not going to repeat next year. Yes Microsoft had a great many third party exclusives, but that is not the same as internally developed titles, or second party exclusives. Already we have reason to believe there will be a plethora. At least one from Bungie, one from Lionhead, Four from Rare, one from Ensemble, and one from Mistwalker. That is some serious delivery on tap for next year, and it can go higher.
Microsoft likes to purchase third party exclusives. I find it hard to stomach how recently in these debates this little detail that was once a crime against humanity has somehow disappeared from the debate. We talk about price, because that is what the Sony zealots want. Right now for them it is all about the price. At one time it was money hatting, and now its predatory pricing. Whether you like it or not Microsoft does get more then its fair share of third party exclusives. That is not going to change next year. That was a major factor this year for Microsoft's success. Those third party exclusives they bankrolled paid out for them. Yes Microsoft is going to buy third party exclusives next year. Something Sony has been resistant to doing.
Finally Microsoft has both momentum and dominance. That imparts two advantages that the 360 has not enjoyed in this console war. They have always held dominance, but never did they hold both it and momentum. That puts pressure on Sony. When your selling even if you do not have the most consoles out you are given some leeway. When you are not selling, and you are in the third place position you will be treated by the retail chain accordingly. The PS3 was making headway on shelves this year, but if the 360 is doubling sales there is little doubt retailers will give greater love to the 360. Giving it more shelf space, and more special offers.
To keep it short and sweet the PS3 is worse off in the upcoming year then it was this year. In fact it has almost no advantage to draw upon outside of name recognition which isn't changing the situation now anyway. So how can the PS3 do better for being worse?
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Why was this year was "the very best" for the PS3? If anything, Sony have the most to gain from next year. A possible price-cut coupled with the possible release of some of the biggest titles for the system - (GT5, FFXIII, GOW3, KZ2).
Also as far as lulls go, what can MS produce in 09' that can rival their 08' holiday lineup for sales? I can't think of anything that could outpreform a Gears 2 and Fable 2 holiday combo, short of a full new Halo title. So far though, it's looking like only an expansion is coming. (It will still sell amazingly well I'm sure, but I think this holiday was bigger for MS.)
Also, Lionhead getting another title out next year? It has to be an expansion pack, historically it usually takes them about 3 years to get a new title out the door.
I remember Dodece, sometime this year before E3 you wrote a similarly long post about how MS were in a dominant position to unveil a ton of exclusives at the conference (and you listed a great deal of reasons) while Sony had blown all their exclusives and had nothing left to show. Then E3 rolled in and Sony announced just as much content as MS.
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I'm betting Forza 3 will be ready for EU around Christmas. M$ will want to keep the pressure on, and give consumers no extra reason to purchase the PS3 if they can. Whats a bet Forza 3 graphically looks way better than 2 (and 2 was pretty sweet) couple that with marketing and they could hinder GT5 sales for PS3 HW. (Just so you know Forza is no sales slouch F2 is on it's way to 5 mill now.)
Also Alan Wake at Xmas 09 will be huge and marketed to hell along with ODST. There is also apparantly 8 First and second party games for next year not yet shown and we have a great 09 for M$.
The problem with the expected PS3 exclusives next year is that going by the previous 2 years of the consoles life, it's almost guarenteed that 2 games you mention for 09 on PS3 will slip to 2010. It's just the way it is with PS3 development. (points at GOW3 and FF13 2010)
