ive said this many times if any of them release before 2012 there will be backlash that would most likely lead to a crash this will not only come from the general buying public, but devs, whos asset libraries will be devalued. it would not be good for the industry right now.

we are in actually a pretty good place for all three with software sales being what they are sometime next year all three should put up proffits and continue to do so till the end of the generation. sony will be the last to post profits form its game division, and depending on how many units they move form now until the cut (march earliest), software could even offset a small loss per console basis.

other things that work against the launch are the "recession" that we are told we are in. the much more real slide of the euro and most world monies against the yen (the dollar has held steady but was already weak against it).

on top of that there currently on going major revisions in board and ram design the like of which havent been seen since the mid 90s, this shift should be more defined by 2012 with techs less risky. it also gives time for ISPs to be upgraded and allow for smoother download of full games which is something devs want to kill the resale market (though rental of the game from a download is most likely a devs wet dream rentals on music and games make fortunes)

honestly the only one that could benifit from ending early is nintendo, since they have traditionaly made a profit out of the gate, making people upgrade would just be more cash for them, but killing a cash cow (the wii) is always dangerous

OP:I am conflicted between your smart post, and your dumb sig...

Basically the question is: Who has motivation to push towards the next gen. The answer right now seems to be "no one."

Certainly not Wii, which has no competition for its customers. Not 360, which looks to be winning the competition for its customers, and now at least makes inconsistent profits, which is miles better than consistent losses. Not PS3, which looks to be no longer focusing on marketshare at all. Customers aren't pushing the change, with record game sales everywhere but Japan. Third parties aren't pushing the change, because as was pointed out, transition periods can be painful, and they still need to recover from the mishandling of the last transition.

But then again, two years is a long time. PS3 and 360 have had so many ups and downs over the last two years, it is easily conceivable that they'll be way down by 2010, which will force Sony or Microsoft's hand to release a new console in 2011, whether they planned to or not.

Famicom launched in 1983 in Japan. Atari 7800 came out in 1984 in America. And oh yeah, the whole market crashed around that time, making it hard to argue that the "generation" lasted through 1983 and 84.

I'am agreeing with you, I don't want this to happen. Actaully i would like to see it happen with the ps3. I want to see shifts in balance. Sony one year microsoft the next. Or some other company (hopefully not EA...)  I would like to see the ps3 with the same stuff for a few reasons.

1. The cell as everyone knows is extremly powerful, but limited with the other hardward cramped in it and the fact that it is hard to create games for. Newer versions of the cell will come out, however using the same architechture developers will have the experience they need to already get a nice hefty output of the system. The only way i would want them to change there pcu is if some how they make it stronger and easier to make games for, and the only way i see that happening is pretty much making a computer like the 360.

2. I want to keep a balance as stated earlier. If microsoft wins, we have a monopoly on HD and vice versa. I have loved what sony has done in the past and i would like to see them do it in the future. They have a nice track record of stealing ideas and making them better :P

@goddog & Erik Aston

Both very good points. Nintendo is in a position were they could either cash in even more or risk a backlash, and knowing them they like to play it safe. I think even if they release an HD version of the Wii all games will have to be able to run on SD Wii's to be able to ship. Basicaly they would just up the speed of the proccessor to accomadate the higher resolutions, as the Wii has a good amount of RAM already, but addind enoughf to play with the others would not hurt.

As to Erik's point, the chance that 2010 or 11 could be the downturn of the 360 and PS3 is very possible, but one thing I see stopping that is the growth of the internet. I think we will continue to see both Microsoft and Sony add larger and larger HDD's as we move further into this generation. With internet speeds always improving the chance that we may see full downlaodable games becomes larger, and the relevence of streaming HD movie rentals grows just the same. It will not be long before both Sony and Microsoft have all types of major media in their system stores for consumers to pick from. As we move forward and the amount of revenue that PSN, and Xbox Live bring in becomes a major part of companys over sales we will start to see more content hit the services sooner, and I would not rule out IPTV for both, along with live pay per views.

Another factor that many like to downplay at the moment is Blu-ray. Whether everyone wants to or not, the corperate world is going to make the transition from SD to HD, and DVD to Blu-ray happen. Now obviously with the internet picking up speed, and HD rentals, and services like Netflix become more viable some will head in that direction for their movie veiwing. Some though will no doubt still be in a frame of mind that tells them they need to own a disc, and for them Blu-ray will be the way to go. As the price of the PS3 creeps down to the $199 price point this is a feature that should make the system very interesting to a broader group of people.

Lastly I think Home and the NXE are going to grow rapidly over the next few years. It only makes since for Microsoft to mimic Home even more as they update the new OS. I think both company's will begin to open their doos to markets outside of digital entertainment. I think the future of buying things on the web will change to were you not only get the physical item you pay for, but also a digital version for a personal space in a virtual world, or to were on your virutal personality. It may sound a little far out at the moment, but in a couple years time I think this is going to be the norm amoung the digital generation.

@soulsamurai

I figured you were just saying what you thought may happen, so thats why I wanted to clarify.

Like you said in your first point I really hope Sony satys with the Cell architecture or something easy for devs if they change. I am sure developers are starting to get tired of trying to learn a new programming method every 5 or 6 years, and it no doubt hurts the early games on the systems.

Point to is something I fully agree with. I like what MS has done so far in the gaming industry, but I do not trust them to hold all the cards.

Your point with Sony is exactly what I love so much about them. I know a lot of people bash them for never innovating, but IMO what they do is just as good. Basically from my experiance with Sony products, they may not be the first with an awsome new feature, but soon after they will have a copy cat that is many times better.

This.

You have a point with incentives. Last gen, during this time, Sony had no incentive to release PS3, Nintendo had no incentive to release Wii and M$ had no incentive to release 360.
In reality, the business works that way that you need to release new hardware so that you can sell new hardware and new games for it. At some point, the market will saturate, when you can no longer sell more consoles and the same will happen to games. There's only a certain point where you can improve on your current hardware with the same controller and functionalities.
Sony and M$ are losing marketshare and games along with it. If they want to fight each other, they need hardware that differentiates from competition. And besides, the developers want more powerful hardware so that they can games with better graphics.

XBL and PSN will be on the next gen systems too, so they aren't a reason to stick with the current hardware.

Each of the three have incentives to make a jump to next gen, Nintendo being the only one that "can wait", but even them need to make the jump so that they can keep on selling games and consoles. New hardware is always made in order to make money, not because gamers wants to. Also, releasing new hardware doesn't mean that the old would be ditched. As long as the platforms keep making money, they can live along the new consoles.

And why would 199 pricetag make PS3 more interesting to new audiences? If you were meaning BD players, PS3 will be priced above standalone players, since the hardware manufacturers (including Sony) don't want loss-leading PS3 to eat away the sales of profitable standalone BD players. Assuming that PS3 would get into a position where PS3 would be BD player that represents the majority of BD players market (which could be possible, if PS3 would be sold at 100 less than the standalone players, it would effectively turn BD as UMD and kill the format.

I think it will go until 2012. The technology will be extremely outdated within four years.

On the other hand, all three console makers have said they are not rushing consoles, Microsoft and Sony have both specified "No earlier than 2012", and with the Wii's success, releasing a successor any time soon would be a foolish move.

360 just launched NXE, ps3 is releasing home soon, Wii is selling like hot cakes, theres a good 3-4 years left in this generation i reckon

New consoles maybe late 2011 or even late 2012