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Forums - Sales Discussion - The 3rd Party Balance Sheet of Terror

Million said:
Cueil a more quantative approach to your post would have been appreciated , it's not good saying game X will sell well and I don't think game B will do too good.

We also have to consider Multiplatform releases will become a more viable option for 3rd parties , especialy in our current economic situation .More projects will be delayed possibly cancled even.

I think i'll leave the discussion now because the longer I read the OP the more absurd the comparison becomes.

 

I know, but even just doing short phrases was tiresome... as for the OP he has an interesting way of looking at things.  I agree that it should be looked at, but it is just one side of the strength and weakness of the consoles... alot of poeple like to compare first party titles to show that Sony has stronger in house developers and that is just as one sided an idea as this, but noone goes around complaining that they are not adding in 3rd party exclusives.



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MLB Stickball needs to be removed... it's a XBLA game



amirnetz said:
outlawauron said:

I wasn't trying to be rude. I refered to you, amirnetz, as 'this guy' not to be condesending but because I didn't remeber the name of thread creator.

You make a good point on hardware, but you shouldn't count out third party Japanese software, because they sell more software than 4%. Besides, I just did the math, and Japan has 22.17% of hardware this generation. Worth of a bit or recognition.

Very good. A much improved conversation style. Thank you.

The 22% of Japan is an old historic ratio. There had been a major shift in Japaneese VG consumption in the last year. A while back there was a craze of console consumption that ended over 12 months ago in Japan. And now the market seems to be saturated. For the past quarters they are just not a factor. Their current run rate for console global share (Wii+360+PS3) is indeed lower than 5%. Do the math for the sales in the last quarter and you'll see it.

Regarding software - the Japanese are still great consumers. But this thread is not software sales but third party title support and its effect on HW sales.

Does it make more sense now?

 

I understand that, but just because the Japanese aren't buying as much now doesn't mean all of those previous owners are not buying games.

And I would think that overall install base would be important to third party support.

 

But, being that the thread is about the effect on HW makes Japan a less of a factor. You kinda cripple the country that way.



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Cueil said:

I don't think I had any wishful thinking and bias... with the exception of games that I'd like to preform well, but probably wont do so well

 

 

 Just to be clear. I am not blaming you of bias. I am just saying that the thread will be filled with fanboys and their bias.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

@AnarchyWest:

 

I really tried to accept the titles you put forth. I followed your links, run my own additional queries and tried to find a way to get them accepted. Alas, none of them met the acceptance bar (details below).

 

I know that this rejection may drive you (and others) to accuse me of a 360 bias. I am pretty sensitive to these allegations because they undermine the work we are trying to do here. So I made an extraordinary effort to find merit in these titles, but they just could not pass the vaporware test or 2009 WW release criteria.

 

To put this in context, as I mentioned before I am using the data from VGReleases.com as my primary database. It is a huge database, with 2373 titles for the PS3 and X360 listed. However 1097 of the titles lack any NA/Europe release date and therefore are considered vaporware and are rejected from the analysis. A few of your titles are part of this last group. Others did not even register anywhere.

 

But if any of the other reader thinks I made judgement errors here, I would be happy to hear arguments.

 

The Wall is a PS3 console exclusive according to IGN”

Not true. Look at IGN @ http://xbox360.ign.com/objects/142/14225734.html

 

Yakuza 3 was rejected as “Japan release only”.

Per http://www.vgreleases.com/GameIndex-all.aspx?q=yakuza+3 that states a release date for Japan only. Your link does not state otherwise.

 

Same story with Demon’s Souls

http://www.vgreleases.com/GameIndex-all.aspx?q=Demons%20Soul

 

“for Way of the Samurai 3...the first two recieved a NA release date on the PS2 so the third one should also”

This is just conjuncture. We are not in the business of making up data in this thread. Right now there is no date or even just an NA/Europe release confirmation for the title. I did not include hundreds of titles for both platforms that similarly lacked release dates. I don’t see why this one should get an exception.

 

“RockStar's exclusive ip for the PS3”

No release date, not even a name, Could be a DLC as far as we know. Could be published by Sony. Pure vaporware. Not even close to be included in the list.

 

“I found Blazblue here”

This is the only place this name shows up. Perhaps there’s a typo? I just could find no evidence for this title anywhere else, including Google. I need something more substantial to consider it.

 

“X Edge”

No release date on IGN or VGReleases or anywhere else. VGChartz marks it as released in Japan in September 2008. Sold 40K. No confirmation anywhere of a WW release for the title, so right now it is “Japan only” and does not make the list.

 

“Big Time Revenge”

Pure vaporware. In IGN’s own words in your provided link “New PS3 game in the works, but we don't know squat about it.”. VGRelease which has the most complete list of titles I could find has no mention of it. No release date, no territories confirmed = not making the list.

 

“Codename: Sengoku 23KU”

Even worst vaporware than the one just above. IGN draws a blank on description and date. All it has is a name. VGReleases has no mention of it. No date, no publisher, no territories. Nothing.

 

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

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Current list stands on: 

360 3rd Party Exclusives:

  1. Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures
  2. Age of Pirates: Captain Blood
  3. Battlestations: Pacific
  4. Blood Bowl
  5. Brave: A Warrior’s Tale Total
  6. Champions Online
  7. Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3
  8. Crash Bandicoot: Mind Over Mutant
  9. Crusaders: Invasion of Constantinople
  10. Dance Dance Revolution Universe 3
  11. Darksiders: Wrath of War
  12. Dead Island
  13. Deer Hunter Tournament
  14. Demons of Mercy
  15. Destroy All Humans! Path of the Furon
  16. Divinity 2: Ego Draconis
  17. Dog Tag
  18. Dungeon Explorer
  19. Dungeon Hero
  20. Galactic Command - Excalibur
  21. Guilty Gear 2: Overture
  22. High School Musical 3: Senior Year Dance!
  23. Huxley
  24. Indianapolis 500 Evolution
  25. Left 4 Dead
  26. NARUTO: THE BROKEN BOND
  27. NecroVisioN
  28. Onechanbara: Bikini Samurai Squad
  29. Owlboy
  30. PDC World Championship Darts 2008
  31. Possession
  32. Puzzle Quest: Galactrix
  33. RACE Pro
  34. Raven Squad: Operation Hidden Dagger
  35. R-Type Dimensions
  36. Secret Service
  37. Shadow Harvest
  38. Star Ocean: The Last Hope
  39. Stoked
  40. The King of Fighters: Maximum Impact 2.5
  41. The last Remnant
  42. The Maw
  43. The Outsider
  44. The Precursors
  45. The Shadow of Aten
  46. The Tale of Despereaux
  47. Theseis
  48. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Conviction
  49. Two days to Vegas
  50. Underwater Wars
  51. Urban Mysteries
  52. Velvet Assassin
  53. Venetica
  54. Warhound
  55. Winter Sports 2: The Next Challenge

 

PS3 3rd Party Exclusives

  1. Final Fantasy Versus XIII
  2. Heat
  3. Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm
  4. Soldner-X: Himmelssturmer
  5. Valkyria Chronicles
  6. Quantum Theory
  7. Redwood Falls
  8. WarDevil: Enigma
  9. Tears To Tiara: Earth's Wreath
  10. Bumpy Trot 2


Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

just do month by month, this is just getting out of hand. more than half those 360 titles ive never heard and cant find info on them so post some links or something next to them if possible



Given sales and the 360's ease of development, these results aren't too shocking.



markers said:
just do month by month, this is just getting out of hand. more than half those 360 titles ive never heard and cant find info on them so post some links or something next to them if possible

 

Indeed, I would like to arrange the releases by quarters. This will help us detect trends better. 

As for info - IGN is a great source for title info. Release info is best found in VGReleases. If you have specific ones that you just can't find anything there, let me know.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

Ender said:
Given sales and the 360's ease of development, these results aren't too shocking.

The results are much more striking that I expected. A-priory I would have assumed that the list of 360 exclusives would be much smaller as a PS3 port expand the addressable market by 60%. So as long as the port costs less than 60% of the initial development cost then it would make sense to go multi-plat across the board.

But apparently this logic does not work for small developers. For the smaller developers it is much simpler and faster to develop for the 360 architecture natively. The architecture is very much a PC architecture and it is easy to find developers familiar with it. The development tools are world class (Visual Studio is top notch). The final quality is higher and the testing is easier with a single platform. No compromises are needed when there is only one target platform.

The cost of porting apparently is much more significant than us in the forums can appreciate. The architectures are so different between the platforms (3 cores vs 7 sp, 512MB vs 256MB RAM etc) that the port process is risky and fraught with problems.

We also have to remember that when the development is completed on the leading platform (mostly the 360), the studio is often suffering from  cash liquidity problems as they have been burning the money for years on the initial development without seeing any income from the title. The studio needs money urgently. Management want to release here and now and start seeing the sales dollars. A port at this point is another substantial expense, significant added risk and a delay of the revenue stream.

So I guess this is why you are seeing many more 3rd party exclusives than we have suspected at the initial process.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3