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Forums - Sales Discussion - The 3rd Party Balance Sheet of Terror

Million said:
Cueil a more quantative approach to your post would have been appreciated , it's not good saying game X will sell well and I don't think game B will do too good.

Cueil & Million

 Scoring the expected quality of the releases could have helped in theory. However:

1. We often don't have any information as to how the game will look, play or accepted.

2. Such an attempt will immidiately derail the thread into fanboy wars about which title is going to be better based on solely on wishful thinking and bias.

It is hard enough as it is to keep a thread here on an objective level without some of the fanboys trying to make it into charged discussion.  Adding this subjectives evaluation will completely take the thread into an uncontrolled spin.

That said, I do encourage you to start a new thread where you can take the lists collected here and try to score them. This thread is mostly about the data collection process and less about driving any conclusions. Once we have the data collected on a regular basis I hope to see multiple threads that reuse it.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

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whatever said:

If a game is on the Wii, the console leader, that kills any HW advantage the 360 or PS3 would have for that title. 

See a post above at my answer about the meaning of "exclusivity". It is not about who is "winning" but about who is not getting titles. If all but one platfrom are getting a title then that platform is disadvantaged in the market, even though the title is multi-plat, the fact that it is not on the platfrom makes the platform weaker. 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

amirnetz said:

Several comments above questioned why we count as 360 exclusives titles that also show on the PC (or Wii or another platform).

This is a very valid question, so let me explain. 

The question this is thread is really addressing is not which platform has more exclusives, but which platform is denied titles. Another way to rephrase it is: "Our goal is not to determine a winner, but to identify a loser".

The key point to remember is that an exclusivity for one of the HD consoles, really means that the other one does not get the title. If this denial happens often enough to the same platform it will start to become apparent in the marketplace that "that platform doesn't get many of the titles that are out there".

Similarly, we treat timed-exclusives as exclusives as the market shown great bias against a late release. It appears that it is just as damaging for a platform to be the one known as "the console where many games show up much later if they show up at all".

When such a perception is propagated in the market, then "that platform with the fewer titles" becomes a risky purchase to new buyers because the buyers will lack the confidence that all of the future titles will be available on the console. This lack of confidence will cause changes in buying decisions and the platform with the fewer titles will lose share. This lose of share in turn will accelerate the 3rd parties decision to drop support for the platform. And this vicious cycle is called "the death spiral". 

So again, this thread is not a pissing contest between the platform, but an attempt to identify an situation where one of the platform is getting itself into a dangerous situation by singnificantly losing 3rd party support.

This statement makes HUGE assumptions and doesn't consider other factors.  Alot of these titles are shovelware and won't impact someone when looking to buy a console, especially since the Wii will be the king of shovelware for this gen.

Also, there are other reasons to buy a console these days, whether it be BR on PS3 or netflix on 360.  So if this thread is to see which console will go the way of the gamecube, I think it definitely fails.

 



A couple of comments on the thread accused me of "stacking the deck" against the PS3 with the rules in the OP. I addressed the specific issues raised above and explained the rationale for the rules. I hope it help some of you realize that there is a good objective reason for each one.

I know that regardless of the reasoning, some of you will still believe that the rules still favor the 360. This is the way of these forums, for many posters everything is casted through the lens of the fanboys. I accept that as the sad reality.

Every rule can be argued and contested. There is no axiomatic rule out there. No matter what the rules will be, there will be someone to complain about them. Especially if the end results are not coming out the way they want to. 

Some of the rules strongly disadvantaged the 360. For example, the exclusion of XBLA takes away a huge advantage from the 360 - with many million+ sellers in the marketplace. If the results were different with the PS3 having the big list I am sure I would have here hoards of screaming xbots companioning about not including the XBLA and that the deck is stacked against them.

No one can make everybody happy. I tried to be as objective as anyone can be. When I started the lists I had no idea what shape they will take. If you follow the thread history you will see that it started our as a short list and a fairly balanced one. It is only at the latest stages, when the deep harvest of titles was completed and the lists became very unbalanced that we started hearing about “the deck is stacked”.

I think I answered with reason and details the underlying logic behind each rule. I will be happy to continue to discuss it further. I love a good discussion. But I would appreciate the poster stopping to hint to a hidden agenda by the OP.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

whatever said:
amirnetz said:

When such a perception is propagated in the market, then "that platform with the fewer titles" becomes a risky purchase to new buyers because the buyers will lack the confidence that all of the future titles will be available on the console.

This statement makes HUGE assumptions and doesn't consider other factors.  Alot of these titles are shovelware and won't impact someone when looking to buy a console, especially since the Wii will be the king of shovelware for this gen.

Also, there are other reasons to buy a console these days, whether it be BR on PS3 or netflix on 360.  So if this thread is to see which console will go the way of the gamecube, I think it definitely fails. 

Of course there are other factors. The OP explicitely states that there are many factors to the purchasing decisions. See extract:

"This thread does not attempt to evaluate the overall winner between the 360 and the PS3. It does not try to evaluate the quality of their respective lineups. It does not try to predict the success of the titles in the market.

This thread also does not claim that 1st and 2nd party titles are not critical to the success of the platform. Of course they are critical. It would be silly to suggest otherwise.

What this thread IS trying to do is to evaluate only one aspect of the competition between the 360 and the PS3: 3rd party support.

I am not claiming in this thread that 3 party support over-shadows other elements of the competition like 1st and 2nd party titles, price, HW quality, brand name and other goodies. These are all very important in the competitive landscape. But so is 3rd party support. "

So let's understand that we are trying to quantify just one aspect of the competition without excluding others.

As for shovelware - apparently it is a good enough business as it is going on for decades. People are buying this crap often enough to make such titles viable. As much as we hate it, it is a factor in the marketplace.  The PS2 was the king of the shovelware and it was a death by a thousand cuts for the original xbox - there were so many more titles available for the PS2 it was in a major disadvantage. I am not claiming it was THE reason why the PS2 won, but it was part of it.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

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wow i love how the titles i posted aren't being accepted...they arn't even vaporware



AnarchyWest said:
wow i love how my titles i posted aren't being accepted...they arn't even vaporware they are known titles..

Look about at my reply. You were not ignored. I asked for more information on some and rejected others. Still waiting.

Note that I had to tighten the rules to include only titles that have a release date of 2009 included to eliminate vaporware. This is done to both platforms equally. I used VGReleases as my default release date verification mechanism, but if you can point to other sources for the release date I will appreciate it.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

The Wall is a PS3 console exclusive according to IGN
http://ps3.ign.com/objects/825/825300.html

you rejected Demons Soul and Yakuza 3
http://ps3.ign.com/objects/142/14263681.html
http://ps3.ign.com/objects/142/14242310.html

for Way of the Samurai 3...the first two recieved a NA release date on the PS2 so the third one should also



RockStar's exclusive ip for the PS3
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2007/07/27/new-rockstar-games-franchise-exclusive-to-the-ps3/

I found Blazblue here
http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=19171



I haven't looked yet, but you need to make sure that there is a 2009 release date (even just a year),



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3