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Forums - Sales Discussion - The 3rd Party Balance Sheet of Terror

PDC World Championship Darts 2008 is listed for PS3 among others. Sounds like a crap game. Almost don't want to bring it up.

I Am Alive is also listed on VGChartz for the PS3.



"This is the deep-dish, delicious irony endured by the Nintendo stalwart: to see their platform of choice ascendant, even as their bright God turns his face away."

Tycho Brahe

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Alright it's pretty much apparent that the PS3 list is dwarfed by the 360 one , but can we take quality/likely marketing hype behind the 3rd party games as a factor.

Alot of the game's you've listed for the 360 won't break 100k.




The lists are full of 'meh' in terms of anticipated quality with one or two gems in each, which are the ones more than likely paid for. With the increased costs associated with HD game development - GTA IV had a 100 million budget for example - you need the combined installed bases of both consoles to get the return on investment required to break even. It'll be interesting to monitor this thread in a year as this gen wears on and the sales gap increases(?) if the caliber of the exclusive titles increases as well...er, that is the ones that aren't paid for.



Million said:
Alright it's pretty much apparent that the PS3 list is dwarfed by the 360 one , but can we take quality/likely marketing hype behind the 3rd party games as a factor.

Alot of the game's you've listed for the 360 won't break 100k.

 

60 3rd Party Exclusives:

  1. Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (this could do well depending on marketing)
  2. Age of Pirates: Captain Blood (i to thought this was dead)
  3. APB (lots of potential... but how often are we let down.... but these are the guys who put out Crackdown so... who knows)
  4. Battlestations: Pacific (this will sell... unfortantly... and unfortantly it's about the pacific theature and will do a piss poor job)
  5. Blood Bowl (wtf?  off the radar... we'll see how much it's pushed as the date comes closer)
  6. Brave: A Warrior’s Tale Total (who knows with this stuff... )
  7. Champions Online (I can't wait for this one...)
  8. Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3 (it'll do well enough)
  9. Crash Bandicoot: Mind Over Mutant (kids will dig it... )
  10. Crusaders: Invasion of Constantinople (I don't think this will do so well)
  11. Dance Dance Revolution Universe 3 (these things are give and take... sometimes they take off sometimes they fall flat)
  12. Darksiders: Wrath of War (another WTF?)
  13. Dead Island (wtf 3?)
  14. Deer Hunter Tournament (some how this will sell 300k plus... -_- )
  15. Demons of Mercy (wtf? Oxymoron?)
  16. Destroy All Humans! Path of the Furon (I liked the first one... this one I don't know)
  17. Divinity 2: Ego Draconis (has potential... loved the first one)
  18. Dog Tag (jesus am I this ignorant about future releases?)
  19. Dungeon Explorer (ignorance expanded)
  20. Dungeon Hero (again)
  21. Galactic Command - Excalibur (sound familure...)
  22. Guilty Gear 2: Overture (this wont sell well... but it may cross the 100k barrier)
  23. High School Musical 3: Senior Year Dance! (million seller... I called it! And it will have avatar cloths that you can buy from their channel)
  24. Huxley (tons of potential, but not likely to reach it... I already own a game that does this and it does it well dispite being done by SOE)
  25. I Am Alive (wtf?)
  26. Indianapolis 500 Evolution (European game for sure)
  27. Left 4 Dead (this game is awsome)
  28. MLB Stickball (this is a XBLA game take it off)
  29. NARUTO: THE BROKEN BOND (a game I'll be getting it'll break 100k soonish)
  30. NecroVisioN (I cry with ignorance)
  31. Onechanbara: Bikini Samurai Squad (hell yeah... just the name will get it at least 50k)
  32. Owlboy (no more... only shit I know)
  33. PDC World Championship Darts 2008
  34. Possession
  35. Puzzle Quest: Galactrix (isn't this XBLA?)
  36. RACE Pro
  37. Raven Squad: Operation Hidden Dagger
  38. R-Type Dimensions
  39. Secret Service (christ... this is 40 bucks?)
  40. Shadow Harvest
  41. Star Ocean: The Last Hope (i"m stoked about this one... )
  42. Stoked
  43. The King of Fighters: Maximum Impact 2.5 (it may hit up 100k... but is this XBLA or disk?  I can't remember)
  44. The last Remnant (eventually it'll inch it's way up)
  45. The Maw
  46. The Outsider
  47. The Precursors
  48. The Shadow of Aten (this game is back?  Wasn't this a DC game originally?  Maybe just a familure title)
  49. The Tale of Despereaux (100k easy... the movie looks like it'll let it get that at least)
  50. Theseis
  51. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Conviction (if they can do as well on this as they did with Chaos Theory it'll hit 2 million easy)
  52. Two days to Vegas
  53. Underwater Wars
  54. Urban Mysteries
  55. Velvet Assassin (if excuted well it'll easily do a million)
  56. Venetica
  57. Warhound
  58. Winter Sports 2: The Next Challenge

 

PS3 3rd Party Exclusives

  1. Final Fantasy Versus XIII (easily 1 million
  2. Heat
  3. Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm (I hope it does well)
  4. Soldner-X: Himmelssturmer
  5. Valkyria Chronicles (I hope this one gets to 500k plus)
  6. Quantum Theory (lots of potential)
  7. Redwood Falls
  8. WarDevil: Enigma (potential, but I don't think they can deliver)
  9. Tears To Tiara: Earth's Wreath
  10. Bumpy Trot 2


amirnetz said:

4.    We’ll consider a release as being exclusive to the platform if it does not show-up on the other platform within the one month time window. The exclusive title is still considered exclusive even if it also shows up on a PC, Wii or PS2.

 

 

Stopped reading your thread when it became apparent that you were deliberately biasing the competition to advantage the 360.



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Cueil a more quantative approach to your post would have been appreciated , it's not good saying game X will sell well and I don't think game B will do too good.

We also have to consider Multiplatform releases will become a more viable option for 3rd parties , especialy in our current economic situation .More projects will be delayed possibly cancled even.

I think i'll leave the discussion now because the longer I read the OP the more absurd the comparison becomes.




scottie said:
amirnetz said:

4.    We’ll consider a release as being exclusive to the platform if it does not show-up on the other platform within the one month time window. The exclusive title is still considered exclusive even if it also shows up on a PC, Wii or PS2.

 

 

Stopped reading your thread when it became apparent that you were deliberately biasing the competition to advantage the 360.

I don't think that's fair after all we're comparing consoles, not consoles + PC.  The mere fact that there are more PC/360 games than PC/PS3 stands to influence those who don't use a PC for games.  All things being equal Sony had the same opportunity to entice the same PC developers with their console but their choice of hardware architecture dictated lesser support.



You've already stacked the deck when you said you count PC multiplats. Which is absolutely ridiculous, as you are claiming Valve putting a port of L4D on 360 is teh same as making an exclusive game for 360.



Several comments above questioned why we count as 360 exclusives titles that also show on the PC (or Wii or another platform).

This is a very valid question, so let me explain. 

The question this is thread is really addressing is not which platform has more exclusives, but which platform is denied titles. Another way to rephrase it is: "Our goal is not to determine a winner, but to identify a loser".

The key point to remember is that an exclusivity for one of the HD consoles, really means that the other one does not get the title. If this denial happens often enough to the same platform it will start to become apparent in the marketplace that "that platform doesn't get many of the titles that are out there".

Similarly, we treat timed-exclusives as exclusives as the market shown great bias against a late release. It appears that it is just as damaging for a platform to be the one known as "the console where many games show up much later if they show up at all".

When such a perception is propagated in the market, then "that platform with the fewer titles" becomes a risky purchase to new buyers because the buyers will lack the confidence that all of the future titles will be available on the console. This lack of confidence will cause changes in buying decisions and the platform with the fewer titles will lose share. This lose of share in turn will accelerate the 3rd parties decision to drop support for the platform. And this vicious cycle is called "the death spiral". 

So again, this thread is not a pissing contest between the platform, but an attempt to identify an situation where one of the platform is getting itself into a dangerous situation by singnificantly losing 3rd party support.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

amirnetz said:
whatever said:
amirnetz said:
whatever said:
Why are we excluding Japan? Especially FFXIII, where it will sell 1-2 million units in week 1.

Fair question. The reason why Japan-only exclusivity is excluded is because we are trying to track global trends and Japan is just too small on its own to affect the global behavior (less than 5% of the weekly sales of the 360 + PS3) .

 

Fair enough.  My point was that this does not apply to FFXIII where it will sell as much in Japan as in the other regions.

 

Yes, but in this thread we attempt to evaluate the HW platform success based on 3rd party support. Not the software sales of those titles.

 

Then doesn't this totally contradict your rule about whether or not a games is released on the Wii.

If a game is on the Wii, the console leader, that kills any HW advantage the 360 or PS3 would have for that title.