Yeah, this is important. My understanding is that Hot Shots Golf is one of the premier PS titles in Japan.

http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=PS2&publisher=&sort=Japan

Yep. Seven of the top ten best selling PS2 titles are DQ (2) Final Fantasy (3) or Hot Shots Golf (2). So this is a AAA title in Japan.  

Well if it does hit 25k in JP then I would definitely call that a game that moves hardware. It would represent an almost doubling of week over week numbers. I don't have a lot of info to go on for Japanese sales trends (not a market I have payed a lot of attention to).

As for your question, I am not sure how far back you would have to go for a 200k unit week for a game on the PS3, I don't have software numbers in my spreadsheet. However, I think you were eluding to the fact that it probably has not happened recently (if ever).

I am content to wait and see what the numbers are at this point. But one thing is for sure, if it does not pass 4m this week it will for sure next week.

The real question here is not when it wiljl reach 4 million but how long it will be able to keep up this momentum. When is the 80gb version being launched again?

Today.

Nah, best prediction for the PS3:

Japan, good sales week on week, but not as high as people hope at just 25million (1 or 2 k deviation either way)

North American sales still dropping, but still remaining higher than 360: i say about 40k for this week.

Other - see a slight increase with the new starter pack (especially in the UK), but still limited impact - 35k

overall: 100,000 - that leaves a tempting 10k gap. would love Sony to hit 4m this month, but its going to miss it by the narrowest of margins.

 This is my best guess as well, now that I've considered it, but it's not impossible for it to hit. I'm giving a 60/40 chance against, right now. 

yeah, i'd go with that.

For me, it all depends on Japan. It will do 35-40k in NA, at most 40k in Others. Can it do the remaining 30k in Japan? I don't have a good picture of the Japanese market, so I don't know.

Last week Sony stated it has sold 4,48 million worldwide.
And that's no shipping amount, but they state they have sold this number.

So why do you and VGChartz stick with <4.0 million?

If it can pick up that much more for Others then that will make a difference, but i still doubt it - the starter pack hasn't been out everywhere in Europe yet, and i doubt we'll see a 5k jump in UK - simply too much, maybe 1 or 2 thousand max, leaving the remaining 4 k for the rest to pick up.

As for the Japan picture, HSG might be a console seller, but even then, will it double sales? i've banked that it will, but more than that i still believe is unlikely.

i can see that 10k being oh so close, and it wouldn't take much to just make it to that - maybe i'll be surprised. PS3 might sell shed loads in Japan and almost triples sales, followed by sustaining sales in NA and a larger than expected starter pack jump in Europe - but all three happening? could be too much to ask.