Wow, wow, wow. Wait right there. The majority of PS2 owners haven't bought 7th gen consoles yet. They are waiting for the prices to go down.

The Wii's success lies in the fact that it appealed to people who had never touched a console before, who were new to gaming. Quite a few PS2 owners got impatient and went 360, but why would they go to the Wii when both the 360 and PS3 were already out? I know ONE PS2 owner who bought a Wii (which he got free), and several who went PS360. Literally, quite a few of my friends have both. I'm not so lucky :(

And Home is not going to sell consoles, neither is NXE. They are online systems. What Home may do, which NXE may not, is reveal that the PS3 has another feature on top of the 360, an online world. When compared, you have to admit that Home (when they finally decide to release it) is a lot better.

This is a fairly accurate statement.  I tried pointing out earlier that PS2 still sells a million worth of software each week, mostly being JRPG's and multiplat software(mostly sports) to people who have not stepped into this generation yet due to cost.  Another major market for Wii sucess is the healthcare/corporate sector.  Between 1 nursing home complex and 3 hospitals around Baltimore there are over 200 Wii's installed for therapy/activity areas.  I dont think the # of last gen gamers going to Wii this gen is as high as some people like to depict, but I also dont think it is as low as others like to depict (including myself at times).

Well I didn't mean the majority of total owners, I meant the majority of last gen owners who have bought from this gen.

And I have said this before.... but the percentage of Wii owners that are actually totally new to gaming is actually quite small, like ~10%.  And some of those may have bought a console this gen anyway with the natural increase in users each gen. With the Wii userbase that is still quite a lot of users, but no where near even plurality and certainly not a majority.

The Wii userbase is very likely (give or take 5%) compromised like this.

(Last gen owners)
PS2 owners - 60%
GC owners - 28%
XB owners - 2%

(Last gen single console owners)
PS2 only - 50%
GC only - 20%
XB only - 0.5% (hardly any)

------ so about 20-25% were GC owners and mainly Nintendo fans, but some will also have had a PS2 as well as the GC wasn't very popular (so most of the discrepancy between PS2 total [60%] and PS2 only will be PS2 + GC owners)

The remaining 10% (50+20+0.5 = ~70% [took off 0.5 for ease of use] + ~10% multi-console owners, nearly all of which will have had a PS2, hence the 10% diff between PS2 only and PS2 total) makes up any new gamers along with a few who may have skipped gen 6 for some reason.

(n.b... the multi owners is quite high in this at 10%.... but early in the Wii's life is when most of last gens more avid gamers likely to own 2+ consoles will have bought it.... so that figure will decrease over time as the later adopters in gen 6 (who are less likely to have 2 consoles) feel the need to renew)


Edit. Also like it or not, most of the new gamers will be 7-20 year old girls.... not soccer moms or penta/hexa/hepta/octagenarians.

60% of the Wii's 36.61 million sales is... 21,966,000.

So a sixth of PS2 owners bought a Wii? That seems pretty suspect. I think it's more like this:

PS2- 20%

GC- 20%

Xbox- 2%

New gamers- 58%

Does Wii Fit not prove how many new gamers there are on the Wii? It's fast approaching 10 million sales, more than a quarter of the Wii's total hardware sold. So if 1/10 of Wii owners are casuals and 2.5/10 of Wii owners have bought Wii Fit, 15% of Wii owners owned a console last gen and bought Wii Fit.

Do you think, without its appeal to non-gamers, the Wii would be in the lead today? No, it would not. It would be in last.

Eh... you do realize that

A) Most PS2 users were casuals...

B) Not only casuals would want Wii Fit...

Infact, i'd say you'd be a pretty crappy gaming enthusist if you missed out on such a new way to play games.

Aside from which, the adoption rate numbers really bears out his arguement.  It's not likely that early adopters are going to become late adopters... so you gotta figure at least as many people who bought in last generation at this point bought in this generation already.

I disagree with this statement. The factors that make a person an early adoptor or a late one can change dramatically over the course of the 5+ years between generations.

Just as an anecdotal example:

• I got my 2nd gen console mid-gen
• I got my 3rd gen console late in the gen
• I got my 4th gen console early in the gen
• I never owned a 5th gen console
• I got my 6th gen console mid-gen
• I got my 7th gen console early

Bboid has more balls than 90 precent of the posters here... to admit being wrong... that's just something we don't see... I thought at first I read this wrong... crazy

on topic:

Quite possible, but it wasn't like a 90%/10% split.

And how am I not a gamer for not wanting to play a 'game' where I do yoga?

EDIT: No offence to anybody who likes Wii Fit.

But for me, it's twice the price of a regular game, and something I could do for free.

From what I have read so far most people think that PS3 will catch up to 360 but not beat Wii. Is there anyone who thinks PS3 has a chance of beating Wii? Or if Sony is so far behind that even 360 may win?

I don't think Sony deems this situation urgent. As soon as they think it is urgent, they will react. Sony have sold over 270 million consoles in 14 years. They're not going to let 360 win.

I also don't think Sony is deluded enough to think they have any chance of beating the Wii this gen. The only way for them to deal with Nintendo now is to steal from it- take the casuals back. But they're not doing that this gen. This gen, Sony is going to get second place, I'm afraid. Hopefully, they've learned a lesson from all this. A low launch price is vital for success. An excellent gaming library is almost as vital. But, everybody now knows in their heart, Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo that the absolute most important part of making a successful console is to appeal to casuals.

The PS2 did this while still catering to the hardcore. And what happened? The PS2 has a better gaming library than any other console. The PS2 sold more in one gen than Nintendo sold in three. The PS2 was, by every definition of the word, a success.

Sony's done it once, they can do it again. Not this gen, but quite possibly the next. I say the purpose of the PS3 now (from a business standpoint) is to restore the Playstation name. To set up for 2012.