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Kasz216 said:

It's not likely that early adopters are going to become late adopters... so you gotta figure at least as many people who bought in last generation at this point bought in this generation already.

 

I disagree with this statement. The factors that make a person an early adoptor or a late one can change dramatically over the course of the 5+ years between generations.

 

Just as an anecdotal example:

  • I got my 2nd gen console mid-gen
  • I got my 3rd gen console late in the gen
  • I got my 4th gen console early in the gen
  • I never owned a 5th gen console
  • I got my 6th gen console mid-gen
  • I got my 7th gen console early