@Xyrex,

Actually the PS3 has already started making up ground, but if you look strictly at the monthly numbers you won't see it yet since the PS3 "price cut" was in July and July numbers are not finished yet.

If you look at the current situation according to the VGChartz numbers you have the PS3 at 241,805 units so far this month, and the 360 at 169,934 during the same period. This month is actually all but guaranteed to be the weakest month the 360 has ever had by a margin of around 60k units over the entire month representing an aproximate 21% decrease over the previous worst month for the console (Which was also a 4 week period).

Conversely the PS3 is on track to have one of its better 4 week monthly periods. By no means is the PS3 going to be in uncharted numbers this month but it is on the uptrend. For those wondering, the week ending April 7th through the week ending April 28th is the best "normal" 4 week monthly period for the PS3 thus far with 335k units. I say normal because I hesitate to count Jan and March as "normal" sales trends since Jan has after X-mas numbers and March has EU launch numbers...and march is a 5 week period anyways.

But yeah, expect the PS3 to make up ground this month, I would predict it to make up about 100k units. Which I am sure most are thinking "Well that will be like 5 years for it to catch up to the 360 at this rate!". And I would respond to those people by saying "Well its actually more like 5.1 years!". Seriously though, this could be the start of a large PS3 uptrend or this could be a bump in the 360's road. It is all way to early to tell IMHO and I would probably want to see two consecutive months or at least a full 6 weeks of data indicating the trend before I would personally call it a trend.

I do not question the lineup being a valid strong feature of the 360 this holiday season. However I must question the lineup in comparison to the price of the system. Sure many of these games will give people an impulse to buy the console. However the price point on the system will curtail that desire. The price of both high end consoles effectively pushes them out of impulse range for most consumers.

I get the strong impression that Microsoft is still playing Sony and not playing Nintendo. Sony has a valid reason to play Microsoft they have no choice in the matter really. They are both high end machines and they have no chance to compete with Nintendo on the price front.

Microsoft does have a choice however to choose who it is competing against. All they need to do is get their price and value in line with the Nintendo console. Then consumers will have to make a choice between the comparative strengths of two consoles. Even if they cannot beat the Nintendo they can at the very least open their market up to more casual players. They would avail themselves of a much larger audience. Much sooner then Sony can.

With the current price drop rumor showing a less then compelling price point for casual players. You get the feeling like it is close but no cigar time at Microsoft. Sure a price drop might stimulate sales as the system enters the price range of fence sitters. However if the price point entered the Nintendo price territory I could have seen a jump of a million units per month world wide. I feel they would be lucky to get a quarter of that if the rumor pans out.

The PS3's lineup is only going to improve. Can't see the 360 being in such a good position to outrun PS3 sales again (unless sales this holiday are enough to convince developers to further prioritise 360).

I believe there's still little margin of error for Microsoft in this console race. It really comes to brand name. It can't to the same extent Sony can with the PS3 say when the price drops sales will boost because Microsoft world wide and still even to some extent in America doesn't carry the trust or reverence of millions and millions of gamers the way Nintendo or Sony does. Sony is coming off back to 100 million plus hardware selling generations. Six times a Nintendo console or handheld has sold more than 30 million, while Microsoft has yet to accomplish that feat once.

With all the big games people are talking about is the 360 doesn't beat the PS3 handily this holiday season than I think they'll be third place this gen. When the PS3 is $400 and has FFXIII, GT5, and MGS4, among many other games, than it will be selling much much better, and probably with every farther price drop it'll get a good boost. The 360 doesn't have to Wii numbers this holiday season, but if it's even close between it and the PS3 than I see the PS3 taking off a head of it in the coming years.

Dodece said: I do not question the lineup being a valid strong feature of the 360 this holiday season. However I must question the lineup in comparison to the price of the system. Sure many of these games will give people an impulse to buy the console. However the price point on the system will curtail that desire. The price of both high end consoles effectively pushes them out of impulse range for most consumers. I get the strong impression that Microsoft is still playing Sony and not playing Nintendo. Sony has a valid reason to play Microsoft they have no choice in the matter really. They are both high end machines and they have no chance to compete with Nintendo on the price front. Microsoft does have a choice however to choose who it is competing against. All they need to do is get their price and value in line with the Nintendo console. Then consumers will have to make a choice between the comparative strengths of two consoles. Even if they cannot beat the Nintendo they can at the very least open their market up to more casual players. They would avail themselves of a much larger audience. Much sooner then Sony can. With the current price drop rumor showing a less then compelling price point for casual players. You get the feeling like it is close but no cigar time at Microsoft. Sure a price drop might stimulate sales as the system enters the price range of fence sitters. However if the price point entered the Nintendo price territory I could have seen a jump of a million units per month world wide. I feel they would be lucky to get a quarter of that if the rumor pans out.

 yeah it's exactly my feeling, but on the other hand, the price (600) might be a issue for a lot of people concerning the PS3.... butfor the other console available I don't consider that a issue, or at least not a "physical" on it's a "mental" issue.... because when I was a kid (16-20) I was able to make 400 bucks in a month or 2 working different jobs.... so today it should be evene easier for the kids to make that kind of money.... it's just that the price mentaly seems high.... even 600... I meen for a kid living with his parents he just needs to make 10 bucks a day for 2 months... which is more than doable.... 

 

@Sqrl

you are right we have to wait to see, but personaly I believe it's a bump especialy if they run out of stock on that model fast...

does anybody has an approximate number of how many units were for sale until they run out of stock on the 60Go???

and second of all having a breach in july is way to early, if they don't sustain it till early october, they could run out of breath... it doesn't mean they won't have jump in the 4th quarter.... but I'm pretty sure that purchase right now are not christmas purchases.... now how many in that tiny jump from PS are already owners of one of the other model ??? like you said it's to early to analyze.... but I also think it's to early to make a jump.... the price cut is good.... but I personaly would have made it later in the year to make it coincide with the christmas frenzy....

 

@ godf

do you seriously think that MS is going to stop developing there linup after december 2007 ????? 

sure PS3 will improve it, but I would say it's about time especialy for a company which to be braging about their incredible line up.... but the thing is you and me don't know half of what MS is working on with 1st and 3rd party dev... and what we already know has a huge potential already...since 2001 MS bought 3 big studios (bungie, rare and lion head) and created one in europe, where sony is firing people in his first party studios.... the we can see the willpower MS has to put money on the table to aquire exclusives from other plateforms... I mean jsut with what we know already which once again is not much..... you have Fable 2, Banjo-Kazoie 3, warhound, cry on, dance dance revolution universe 2,huxley, infinite undiscovery, DOA5, halo project (hte peter jackson stuff), halo wars, Dark mesahia, too huma, alan wake, GOW 2, America's army, culdcept saga..... and that's just a part of the exclu we know off (I might be mistaken on some but hey nobody is perfect)..... I'm not saying all those games are good, but they all have a good saling potential, to that you add the good multiplat comming out.... So I'm pretty confident for 2008 line up especialy since they didn't do any new announcement, most of those games are project announced in 2006... and i didn't put all the title which are under project X that we know they existe but we have no idea what it is.... 

 @squrriel

well excuse me but in the listing I did (which is not complete) I see what 5 FPS (and it's a outdated term in my opinion, as you have big differences between an halo and a Bioshock) 1 racing game, in that you have platform/adventure game, a couple RPG,  sports games, action/adventure game etc... so yeah it's not all coverred, but you are not honnest if you say that the majority of gamers are not able to find something they like in that line up.... and mark my word, you gonna have a lot of them hiting the 85%.... 

I agree with your listing but what you are saying is they were good titles but apparently not the best if other game took over them.... once again mark my word this line up will not be took over.... 

@everyone

do you know when we are going to see peter jackson..... liepzig or Tokyo???.... we should do a betting post.... i'm pretty sure we'll see him by the end of the year... 

godf said: The PS3's lineup is only going to improve. Can't see the 360 being in such a good position to outrun PS3 sales again (unless sales this holiday are enough to convince developers to further prioritise 360).

 I think this has already happened!

It is not necessary to prioritize the Xbox 360,  it is simply easier to implement a program on this system!

The Xbox 360 has several strategic advantages, that might be more than enough to interest developers:

 

1. Online games cost money:

While this looks like an advantage for the PS-3 the oposite is the case. Developers get a share of this money. So it ios beneficial to implement additional features to have the people play your game online. On the PS-3 you don't get additional money, after the people bought the game.

2: Improvements for the Xbox 360 are in most cases beneficial for the PC-Versions  

3. Ifg you want to use most of the power of the PS-3 yopu need a test version that runs only PPE based. It is rather easy to port such a version to the Xbox 360 and then to the PC. 

HappySqurriel said: mrstickball said: Everyone thinks MS will blunder it, but I really don't think they will. They've been saying since before last Christmas that the battle wasn't in 2006, but during Christmas 2007. Look at it: The X360 has by far, the best lineup of games in history. Ever. I know everyone will hate me for saying it, but the X360 lineup is about as good as the Wii and PS3's combined. That is one of the easiest to attack statements ever made on this site ... The XBox 360 simply doesn't have a genre defining platformer, adventure game, JRPG, Fighter, or kart racer. The XBox 360 has not spawned countless new genres, and hasn't redefined existing genres. If the XBox 360 really had the best lineup of games in history its sales would be the best sales for any console in history. The XBox 360 has an excellent selection of racing games and shooters which seem to appeal to a selection of hard-core gamers who would see it as the "best line-up in history" but for the majority of gamers it probably misses some/many of their favourite genres or series

While I don't think the 360 has the best lineup of games in history, it has the best lineup this holiday season. You are right in some regards with your assertions Happy Squirrel. There is no platformer, adventure game, or "kart" racer in the Holiday lineup. Why does it have to be a "kart" racer anyway? The 360 does have Blue Dragon, Eternal Sonata, and Lost Odyssey coming. What JRPGs does the PS3 have this holiday season? Enchanted Arms? A port of a year old 360 JRPG. Virtua Fighter 5 coming to 360 with on-line play. It remains to be seen how well VF5 will play on-line, but on-line play is a first for the series. This 360 only has racers and shooters nonsense has to cease. The 360 has a more diverse lineup than either the PS3 or the Wii.

 

Darc Requiem said: While I don't think the 360 has the best lineup of games in history, it has the best lineup this holiday season. You are right in some regards with your assertions Happy Squirrel. There is no platformer, adventure game, or "kart" racer in the Holiday lineup. Why does it have to be a "kart" racer anyway? The 360 does have Blue Dragon, Eternal Sonata, and Lost Odyssey coming. What JRPGs does the PS3 have this holiday season? Enchanted Arms? A port of a year old 360 JRPG. Virtua Fighter 5 coming to 360 with on-line play. It remains to be seen how well VF5 will play on-line, but on-line play is a first for the series. This 360 only has racers and shooters nonsense has to cease. The 360 has a more diverse lineup than either the PS3 or the Wii.

I wasn't arguing that the XBox 360 didn't have a good holiday line-up or that the PS3 or Wii's line-up was better ... What I was saying is the claims that the "XBox 360 has the best line-up ever" or the claims that "XBox 360's holiday line-up 2007 is the best holiday line-up ever" are remarkably biased and false.

The 360 still has huge holes in its line-up and has holes in its holiday line-up which (beyond price) is the main reason the XBox 360 has moderate sales in North America, slow sales in the PAL regions, and no sales in Japan. The XBox line from day one was built around the desires of the "Core" American gamer which means that its line-up is amazing to the "Core" American gamer ... other gamers do not see their gaming tastes well represented.

The XBox 360 only has FPS and Racing games stigma comes from the fact that (with a few exceptions) the exclusive XBox 360 games that are critically acclaimed (or are fan favourites) are racing and shooter games.

sharky said: I cant believe how anti-360 that article was.   Reading it is all doom and gloom for 360. I wonder if these guys noticed 360 is outselling PS3 2-1 every NPD?   BTW, articles have been predicting Xbox is dead since six years ago when Xbox1 came out. It never happens. 360 is in a better position than ever, both from a profitablity, games, and sales perspective.

 

WTF?!?!?!?!?! Your another one loosin it! According to vg numbers the PS3 is outselling the 360 2-1 World wide..

 

Love this thread, lots of well thought out replies.
Microsoft's problem is this: They are crushed in Japan, and are already being regularly outsold in Europe and other markets by the PS3 even though it's considerably more expensive and has few notable games.
That means their only hope to stay ahead of Sony is to DOMINATE the NA market (over Sony at least). This holiday season is their best chance to put enough distance between themselves and Sony to remain the dominate system. If they fail to pull far enough ahead, the combined PS3 dominance in Japan and Europe will give Sony a WW lead and ability to retain and gain more exclusives.
That doesn't doom the 360, but it makes it much harder to be competitive, especially in Europe (Japan is a write-off).