I am changing my outlook again.

With the lack of GTAIV on both consoles I am extremely worried now for both PS3 and XBox 360. Not so much against each other, but now the core-casual market (not the hardcore) has only Halo3 and the Playstation Brand to make their decisions on. We all can list 10 games or more we think are going to be great, but will Billy Wal-Mart Shopper see Halo 3 on a $349-99 console or a $500 PS be worth it. Will Madden have an effect, is it worth it to the average game consumer to spend that much for a better looking Madden?

These are, by far, the games that they buy most, and one of them just got taken out of the equation in the middle of the most important pre-holiday/holiday season of the generation.

Franchise iterations people buy most for sale on a current/next gen console by 12/31/07 (I am talking 2mil+ games by the end of the year):
Halo - Halo3 (360)
The Sims - MySims (Wii)
Mario - Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros., Strikers(Wii)
Zelda - Twilight Princess (Wii)
Metroid Prime 3 (Wii)
Anime Games (Wii)
Tom Clancy Games - A crapload for 360, many for PS3
Gears of War (360)
Forza 2 (360)
CoD4 (3600, PS3)
FPS (360)
(I left pokemon battle rev. off because it hasn't been well recieved.)

Potential Sellers:
Heavenly Sword (PS3)
Lair (PS3)
Warhawk (PS3)
Bioshock... you get the point.

But with out GTAIV will they buy into next gen this year? I think some will, but this may really hurt the entire holiday for PS3 and 360.

GTAIV is a system seller, not for a specific console but it would have gotten people off the fence and into this gen. Madden and Halo3 are all that is left to move the mass of secondary adopters this year. That being said, I think the lack of GTAIV will hurt Sony more, but they are happy selling Bluray players until next holiday (according to their PR).

Hmm in all this we do have to remember, that microsoft IS trying, but not as hard they they should be. In japan they are trying to boost sales with their new exclusive rpgs blue dragon, eternal sonota, and lost odyssey. At this point microsoft is hoping that lowering the cost of the xbox and having a superb lineup of games (some of the best ive ever seen) that it will give them a boost.
People are mentioning the old xbox, but i dont see the old xbox having games anywhere as diverse or as good as xbox 360 has coming up

there are at least 5 exclu project we don't know anything about on 360 already anounced... plus what we know but have no news of... plus what MS is going to talk about sooner or later...... does you people really think MS is going to stop looking for new licences, reviving old ones, aquiring exclu from other plateform... I don't think so it's simply not MS style...... MS is Fing bulldoser once they start the engine they don't stop it.... it has been like that since XBox..... I'm not saying they'll win the war this gen but they are definatly there to at least try to win overall and become the leader on the videogame industry if not the multimedia..... I believe way more in  TV on demand via internet DL on the long run than any physical support like HD dvd or blu ray.... look at netflix they already started to do it..... me I haven't bought a movie or a cd since 97 (except cheap ones at wallmart lol)... I either go to the theatre or I DL them and wouldn't be against paying to DL... I just didn't find a network I like for it..... and who do you think is going to do the software for those multimedia console in your livingroom in the future ???? let me guess ???? well I see only 3 group who would be likely to do it MS, apple, google (yeah they talked about it).....

@steven

Billy Wal-Mart Shopper is definatelly a halo 3 buyer..... look at how many billy wall mart jackass you have on the live of halo..... lol damn billy wall mart shoppers.... man I would rahter have the 360 fail this Xmas than have those jackass on Halo 3 XBL, well at least you can cut them off now :P

This is a very critical christmas for the 360, if the ps3 outsells it, the 360 losses the race.

 true, but it can be true the other way.... I think it's a very critical Xmas for both PS3 and 360 especially regarding WII.... but we also have to consider that the race might be longer than it has ever been (I mean the PS3 and 360 are made to be there for a while, I still don't know about the WII in that version).... so yeah on the short run the loser on this Xmas is in a bad situation.... the long run well it's the long run lets stay on the short one :).... it's already hard enough this year and next year to anticipate the results... I don't want to start on 2009 to 2013..... by then the russian or the chinese might have rulled the world lol :P

The most critical Christmas was about two years ago, after Nintendo had unveiled the Wiimote. ;)

Seriously, though, all this talk about PS3 or 360 being forever doomed to third place based on this Christmas alone is silly. I can possibly see these predictions coming true if 360 outsells PS3 by a wide margin...the system already has a head start and PS3 is always going to cost more than 360. That said, the gap between these two is just 6 million and there are still tens of millions of unsold customers out there...this could easily go the same way as Genesis and Super NES, where one company "wins" for a year or two and then the other one takes over. The GTA IV delay makes this holiday even less important than before.

So I guess I disagree with the whole premise of this thread - this is a very interesting Christmas for the Xbox 360 because it must face PS3 at full(er) strength and it has Halo 3 coming out, plus it may be facing backlash about the reliability - but I suspect every single Christmas from now on is going to be a huge fight between 360 and PS3.

 yeah except that the first motion sensitive pad was released to the large public years ago by MS :P.... wiimote though is the first really exploited and interesting one.... :)

yeah you are right on the rest.... bust it's mostly short term prognosis we are doing there... those consoles like I said on other post are made to last for a while... and like you said the fight is not over this christmas.... but it will be for this Xmas looser for the next 18 months probably