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Forums - Sales Discussion - Critical Xmas for the Xbox360 ???

steven787 on 02 August 2007
endimion said:
steven787 said:

You know what after reading the posts and looking at 2008 releases, I don't think Chrismas 07 or 08 is the most crucial. I changed my mind.

The Xbox360 fate will be decided in the next 12 weeks. Two Worlds and Eternal Sonata (a good JRPG) real soon, Halo 3, and then GTA IV and Guitar Hero III at the end. If these games don't significantly revitalize the 360 sales I don't see unknown franchises like Bioshock or Mass Effect (or $200 Rock Band) doing anything dramatic.

It really comes down to Halo 3 and if $50 makes a difference, do people own a 360 and are they waiting or are people going to buy a 360 for Halo 3 later.


hum if I recall halo was an unknown licence too :) if marketed correctly those two new licence could do the same or at least good....



Halo 1 didn't sell as Halo 2, and Halo probably had more copies sold at $20. I don't think BioShock or Mass Effect will have the 5 million copy appeal of Halo. Of course all these games combined may or may not be a powerful system seller. I am not saying 360 will fail, I am saying that the next 12 weeks are the most critical.

A very interesting chart. 



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

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HappySqurriel on 02 August 2007
Killzone3 said:
Legend11 said:

Fable 2 (TBA 2008)
Alan Wake  (TBA 2008)
Fallout 3 (March 2008)
Too Human (TBA 2008)
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (April 2008)
Darksiders (TBA 2008)
Tom Clancy's Endwar (TBA 2008)
Prototype (TBA 2008)

Infamous (January 2008)
Metall Gear Solid 4 (March 2008 )
Killzone 2 (February 2008)
White Night Story (TBA 2008)
LittleBigPalnet (February 2008)
Gran Turismo 5 (TBA 2008)
Socom 4 (TBA 2008)
Final Fantasy 13 (TBA 2008)
Heavy Rain (Q3 2008)
The Agency (TBA 2008)
Getaway (TBA 2008)
L.A. noire (TBA 2008)

 

I took your lists, deleted any multiplatform games or games without any release date and this is what I'm left with ... On top of that many of these "TBA 2008" games will be in Q4 of 2008 and could even be delayed into the first half of 2009. The dates alone make it difficult to compare to the Wii being that every week more games get announced for this year and few companies have announced what will be released in 2008.

Also a large portion of those games are new games which have no track record so they could easily turn out to be bad games or they could sell poorly; I would add games like 'Disaster: Day of Crysis' to a Wii list but I think that it is foolish to hype a game before you know a lot about it.



Dodece on 02 August 2007

'Disaster: Day of Crisis'

This game has actually vanished into the nether realms probably never to be seen again. I have a Wii, and was interested in this game, but I cannot ignore the fact that for over a year now it has been missing in action. Hell we got footage at last years E3 show and this year it was nowhere to be found. I would give it a ninety percent chance of being canceled.



http://live.xbox.com/member/Dodece

HappySqurriel on 02 August 2007
Dodece said:
'Disaster: Day of Crisis'

This game has actually vanished into the nether realms probably never to be seen again. I have a Wii, and was interested in this game, but I cannot ignore the fact that for over a year now it has been missing in action. Hell we got footage at last years E3 show and this year it was nowhere to be found. I would give it a ninety percent chance of being canceled.

Maybe, maybe not ...

Nintendo is a company which is very careful of the developers it chooses to buy. Typically Nintendo buys developers who are underperforming for some reason so that they can buy the company for next to nothing and get huge gains in their library. With Retro Studios Nintendo saw a company with a ton of artistic talent that was being held back by lack of good technical people, a poor development process and (historically) bad project management due to publisher issues.

I suspect that Nintendo choose to buy Monolith because they saw potential from their work on Disaster: Day of Crysis; I expect that the game may be on hold as  Nintendo tries to resturcture the company in a way to maximize the quality of games they produce.



couchmonkey on 02 August 2007

The thing with 360 is that Microsoft is content to just keep PS3 at bay. Since Sony practically did that job for them by pricing the PS3 so high, Microsoft has gotten really lazy with the 360.

Seriously, there should have been a price drop months ago. If not last Christmas then at least this spring. Now that there finally is a price drop it's $50 or less for every SKU. At these prices, Wii has absolutely nothing to worry about. I don't think it had anything to worry about anyway, but Microsoft could at least have put itself in position to get a much larger chunk of the traditional gamer market by dropping the price of the Premium closer to Wii territory.

Now, that's not to say 360 is in huge trouble or anything. It's probably not going to be #1 this generation, but that's a reasonable sacrifice to achieve some profitability. With the price cut and a few big games I think it will outsell PS3 this holiday season - maybe not by a huge margin, but enough to remain comfy.



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endimion on 02 August 2007
steven787 said:
endimion said:
steven787 said:

You know what after reading the posts and looking at 2008 releases, I don't think Chrismas 07 or 08 is the most crucial. I changed my mind.

The Xbox360 fate will be decided in the next 12 weeks. Two Worlds and Eternal Sonata (a good JRPG) real soon, Halo 3, and then GTA IV and Guitar Hero III at the end. If these games don't significantly revitalize the 360 sales I don't see unknown franchises like Bioshock or Mass Effect (or $200 Rock Band) doing anything dramatic.

It really comes down to Halo 3 and if $50 makes a difference, do people own a 360 and are they waiting or are people going to buy a 360 for Halo 3 later.


hum if I recall halo was an unknown licence too :) if marketed correctly those two new licence could do the same or at least good....



Halo 1 didn't sell as Halo 2, and Halo probably had more copies sold at $20. I don't think BioShock or Mass Effect will have the 5 million copy appeal of Halo. Of course all these games combined may or may not be a powerful system seller. I am not saying 360 will fail, I am saying that the next 12 weeks are the most critical.

A very interesting chart.


 oh yeah yeah.. I don't believe they will do the same number... but the'll be famous especially amss effect... as it is a RPG action... made by the same guys as Kotor and it's probably a saga....

 

 



endimion on 02 August 2007
couchmonkey said:
The thing with 360 is that Microsoft is content to just keep PS3 at bay. Since Sony practically did that job for them by pricing the PS3 so high, Microsoft has gotten really lazy with the 360.

Seriously, there should have been a price drop months ago. If not last Christmas then at least this spring. Now that there finally is a price drop it's $50 or less for every SKU. At these prices, Wii has absolutely nothing to worry about. I don't think it had anything to worry about anyway, but Microsoft could at least have put itself in position to get a much larger chunk of the traditional gamer market by dropping the price of the Premium closer to Wii territory.

Now, that's not to say 360 is in huge trouble or anything. It's probably not going to be #1 this generation, but that's a reasonable sacrifice to achieve some profitability. With the price cut and a few big games I think it will outsell PS3 this holiday season - maybe not by a huge margin, but enough to remain comfy.

 very true....except that I'm still not 100% convince of the life expectency of the WII on the long run... but for now I'm definately seeing the race like that 1 wii, 2 360 3 ps3 .....

 



endimion on 02 August 2007
endimion said:
steven787 said:

You know what after reading the posts and looking at 2008 releases, I don't think Chrismas 07 or 08 is the most crucial. I changed my mind.

The Xbox360 fate will be decided in the next 12 weeks. Two Worlds and Eternal Sonata (a good JRPG) real soon, Halo 3, and then GTA IV and Guitar Hero III at the end. If these games don't significantly revitalize the 360 sales I don't see unknown franchises like Bioshock or Mass Effect (or $200 Rock Band) doing anything dramatic.

It really comes down to Halo 3 and if $50 makes a difference, do people own a 360 and are they waiting or are people going to buy a 360 for Halo 3 later.


hum if I recall halo was an unknown licence too :) if marketed correctly those two new licence could do the same or at least good....

 

@killzone 3

you have Fable 2, Banjo-Kazoie 3, warhound, cry on, dance dance revolution universe 2,huxley, infinite undiscovery, DOA5, halo project (hte peter jackson stuff), halo wars, Dark mesahia, too huma, alan wake, GOW 2, America's army, culdcept saga

 

all exclusive 360 and ONE MORE TIME MS didn't communicate yet on 2008 this year... so we don't know any new things than what we already knew..... where Sony already revealed a big chunk wich is still small.....

i'm not saying one is better than the other for next year.... but you can't say yet either which one is.... especially depending on the results of this year of both consoles, the devs might change their minds on exclu... on one or the other console...

 

 


 well yes but the pb with PC is the need of upgrade.... the adventage of consoles is you have it and it's fine until the next gen.....

for what you said I agree some people won't buy a PS3 this year for the reason you said..... but will they wait or buy a price cut XB or a WII and wait next year to buy a PS3 or even not buy it at all.... I have some friends who say they gonna buy PS3 with MGS 4 play it and give in back right away.... and a lot of them say that... as much in france or in USA... and most my friend in france were PS2 fanboys... a lot are thinking about shifting to XB as soon as the price cut fall and the falcon RRoD pb are fixed



xstonexcold316x on 02 August 2007

why do you guys care about next year when we need to worry about now i mean all 3 systems have great lineup and it all depends on the games YOU like nintendo has 7 games i wana buy this year PS3 has atleast 3 i would buy and 360 has 1 (halo 3) now many of you will disagree but thats my personal preference



endimion on 02 August 2007

^you want GTA on PS3 and miss the special cotent you can get on XB ???