misterd said:
goddog said:
misterd said:
Goddbless said:
Hyruken said:
The thing is though going through this thread people are assuming soon as we hit jan 1st 2009 the PS3 will start to instantly sell more. If we stay at say the 360 selling 100k a week more (i know it is higher im just saying it wont be 200k+ a week in January/Febuary/March) would mean at bare minimum 4 months before the PS3 price cut. So if things are at 100k a week that could mean by the time the PS3 price cut gets here the 360 could of made a 2009 lead of 1.6m units ahead of the PS3 already. This is the key thing people are forgetting. If the price cut is really coming in those who were going to buy a PS3 will hold off which means the PS3 numbers in those months prior to the cut will be even lower. There is a high chance the 360 could be 8.5m units away from the PS3 by the end of march. If that does happen the 360 won't need to do a price cut because it will take the PS3 a year at least to just take back the 1.6m it sold in the previous 4 months to the cut. |
Someone sees the logic. Also you have to wonder if the price cut will bring the PS3 above the 360 or just to parity. If it sells even with the 360 then it's game over for Sony because they will never catch up.
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Yep. Even at an advantage of 6million it would likely take the PS3 2 years, at least, to catch up. Once it hits 8 million, that almost certainly adds a third or fourth year to the formula. Does anyone think we'll still be talking about the 360 vs PS3 come 2011?
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yeah I do 2012 at earliest for a next gen.
ive said this many times if any of them release before 2012 there will be backlash that would most likely lead to a crash this will not only come from the general buying public, but devs, whos asset libraries will be devalued. it would not be good for the industry right now.
we are in actually a pretty good place for all three with software sales being what they are sometime next year all three should put up proffits and continue to do so till the end of the generation. sony will be the last to post profits form its game division, and depending on how many units they move form now until the cut (march earliest), software could even offset a small loss per console basis.
other things that work against the launch are the "recession" that we are told we are in. the much more real slide of the euro and most world monies against the yen (the dollar has held steady but was already weak against it).
on top of that there currently on going major revisions in board and ram design the like of which havent been seen since the mid 90s, this shift should be more defined by 2012 with techs less risky. it also gives time for ISPs to be upgraded and allow for smoother download of full games which is something devs want to kill the resale market (though rental of the game from a download is most likely a devs wet dream rentals on music and games make fortunes)
honestly the only one that could benifit from ending early is nintendo, since they have traditionaly made a profit out of the gate, making people upgrade would just be more cash for them, but killing a cash cow (the wii) is always dangerous
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I honestly don't believe that we'll still have the SD Wii in 2011. It will almost certainly get an upgrade by then which will allow Nintendo to compete more directly with th PS360. That will almost certainly force their competition to move ahead with their consoles.
As fo the 360, it's already hit the $199 point. Assuming they keep cutting price to keep up with the PS3, they will start runninng out of ways to cut the price. Most likely they'll discontinue the Arcade, while dropping the price of the other versions, so the bottom line will be the same, by the average price and value will be increased. But even so they still have little room left to maneuver. It's hard to see them squeezing another 4 years out of the system, especially with Sony in a vulnerable position, and Wii having shown the light on whole new consumer base.
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as for the next years of the 360 , a next year most likely is elimination of the arcade, and larger hdds, not a real price drop, but hey cant have everything we want. in october 2010 expect to see a price drop to 169.99 and 269.99 for classic units, and then introdcution of a slim style (some sort of new feature on the slim). 2011 149.99 to 229.99 . 2012 last price cut introduction of new system... 360s are 149.99 and continue selling for 2 years after new unit is out.
On top of that after it gets to pro at 199 the race with the ps3 wont matter as much until the ps3 hits 199 with B/C otherwise ps2 sales will still hurt the ps3... i do expect them to keep making the ps2 mainly do to emerging markets until 2010
the wii is the only one that can avoid a crash in market if launching early, but i do not expect them to launch an upgraded wii as anything but wiihd, and this may coincide with the inclusion of dvd drive finally... this also might come out at the same time as a price cut to the original wii.... keep both n market, allow developers to decided if they want hd.. you might see a controller with built in motion plus... nintendo will try and keep this marketed as the same product much like the dsi is trying to be pushed as. moving over to another generation is a very very big risk for nintendo killing such a hot product is hard to do
