Part 3 of 1up's analysis of the first half of 2007 in the US. The other two parts are linked for reference.
http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3161611
State of the NPD: Wii, Can it be Stopped?
Nintendo's console shows no signs of slowing down.
By Patrick Klepek, 07/29/2007
State of the NPD previous discussion on the forums:
Wii, Can it be Stopped?
The answer to our own headline: should it? Since Nintendo unveiled the Wii remote at the Tokyo Game Show in 2005, people haven't been sure what to think of Wii. A remarkably different interface and a focus away from visuals is a methodology completely unlike anything the industry had ever even, well, thought of. Consequently, very few really supported the platform out of the gate, forcing Nintendo to prove almost everything themselves. Then again, that's not much different than usual; Nintendo platforms are typically dominated exclusively by Nintendo games.
Of course, it's all different now. Wii Sports changed everything, and Wii has become the casual-focused machine that Nintendo DS is in handheld. No one anticipated Wii would be a flop, but, like Nintendo's last two consoles, it would reach a ceiling as all the Nintendo fans flocked to the machine -- and no one else. Wii has defied almost every gamer and analyst expectation and continued sell, even without much compelling content. So far, the Wii has no tail. Every month, people have expected Wii sales to start flat lining as everyone "realized" how much better games on Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 looked. That hasn't happened. Whereas sales on Microsoft and Sony's platforms have struggled to attract more than the standard early adopters thanks to their too-high prices, Wii has the advantage of a mass-market $250 price tag and an interface that doesn't scare your Mom off. Speaking anecdotally, my own mother has not touched a videogame since Super Mario Bros. and two weeks after Wii launched, she asked if she was "allowed" to play Wii Tennis by herself. Obviously, Wii has been selling better. But, how much better? [Why the *? The January, March and June numbers reflect a five-week total. At the end of each quarter, the numbers reflect a five-week tally (i.e. March 4 through April 7 for the March 2007 totals). Additionally, this January was also five weeks, as a result of the calendar leap year, says the NPD Group.] Sure, the Wii has seen months go up and down, but the difference is clear. There are plenty of PS3s and Xbox 360s on shelves -- there are no Wiis. Most at 1UP have not actually seen a Wii in the wild and Nintendo has announced they don't expect that to change -- ever, apparently -- in 2007. A purposeful shortage? Probably. Wii's made of old hardware and they've known how popular the machine is for some time. At this point, there's no excuses; Nintendo is doing this out of own self interest. Can you blame them? Right now, no one can tell them what to do; what they're doing keeps working. The numbers don't show any reason to expect a change in 2007. In fact, with Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption and Super Smash Bros. Brawl coming in 2007, Nintendo will start roping in the on-the-fence Nintendo fans who didn't buy into the whole Wii thing at first. Combine that with the release Wii Fit, destined to be the darling of the mainstream media for the next year, and no one else has a chance. Xbox 360 and PS3 have great lineups for holiday 2007, but there's no stopping Wii. Gamers have complained Nintendo continues to ignore the hardcore. E3 and its Wii Fit focus was a great example of that. The hardcore feel burned and they should. In many ways, Nintendo has left them behind. But, as Jeff Green said on 1UP Yours this week, Wii shouldn't be seen as a threat. Rather, the new gamers who jump onto the Wii bandwagon are the people who could be roped into picking up an Xbox 360 controller or SIXAXIS after Wii tears away the initial shock. Every single Wii gamer should be absolutely embraced for jumping into the medium: the sales of Carnival Games on Wii mean more backing for the next Grand Theft Auto. The bottom line: Wii is going to keep selling. Get over it. The biggest part I would disagree with is Nintendo ignoring the hardcore. However, that seems to be the new stigma with Nintendo, and I doubt it will change (Kiddie Image). P.S. Carnival Games is going to flop saleswise. Wii Month-to-Month Sales
