Main prediction: 360 will outsell PS3 Q1/Q2 2009 (Average over both quarters)

Sub-prediction: The gap between the two will reach the highest levels since this generation began in that time. (Over 7 million)

Just like last time, I like to make my predictions when there is still uncertainty or otherwise its just preaching to the choir. I wrote down my prediction last time in April, 2 months before it began so I will do the same for this prediction as well.

Im not making any value judgements or putting anyone down, im just trying to spice up my experience on Vgchartz a bit and give each weeks numbers a little more meaning for me.

Reasoning: Simple, consoles which lead over Christmas also tend to carry momentum throughout the next year as well. When the PS3 took Christmas last year it also built up momentum which allowed it to win dozens of weeks consecutively.

I don't think Sony is willing or able to drop the price in Q1 like people expect and hope they will. This Christmas is unlikely to be good for the whole of the company, and they are unlikely to be in the position to easily choose the option of deferring profits now for greater profits later. They also know they cannot afford to enter into a price war with Microsoft, and an early price cut carries the risk of that. This is especially true after Microsoft publicly stated they were gunning for 2nd place.

I don't believe "exclusive" games will have a great effect on the consoles and they haven't had much effect for a while now. Sure they look really cool in 'list-wars' but the sales data has shown time and again its the exception rather than the rule that an exclusive game will shift a large quantity of consoles and most of those exceptions live on the Wii.

A first I thought you were too optimistic with your "Xbox360 will outsell the PS3 Q3/Q4" prediction. Maybe even a bit crazy, but you've proved me and MANY other users wrong. This time I will believe in your words.

GO SQUILLIAM !!!!!!!

I think your right for Q1. Maybe not Q2 as well though, i think weekly sales will be about the same for PS3 and 360 by then.

Until PS3 can challenge the 360's price there is no battle. 360 will just win.

PS3 needs to drop to $300 to even challenge the 360.

Assume for the sake of this discussion that hardware sales increase revenue streams for Sony in two ways: increased sales of software and increased sales of blu-ray movies.

I'm sure I'm oversimplifying things but lower the price, the cost decision then becomes a matter of offsetting any losses incurred through sales of hardware, by increased revenue streams in the two aforementioned areas.

Is that possible by Q2 of next year? Unknown, though I'd suggest that if the 360 handily wins Christmas and first quarter next year, they will force Sony's hand.

The underlying assumption of course is that sales of the PS3 lag behind the 360 until a price drop...that turns out false and the conversation is moot.

Wait...did I even make a prediction??

no.

crap.

well, last year, 360 won christmas 2008 but was out of stock for Q1 so lost all momentum it had. And bluray, thx to warner, officially won the format war and that pushed ps3 sales.

Vote yes on Unpopular prediction #2 people!

That's yes on  Unpopular prediction #2 people!

You heard me, yes on Unpopular prediction #2 people! 

Well selling at half the price point in a global recession will likely be reason enough for the XBOX 360 to outsell the PS3.

Regardless I don't think it'll be by alot.

many peopl have already posted those christmas numbers from xmas 2007 (I'm guessing the 2008 is a typo?) and Sony sold more then, so 360 did not win xmas 2007.

I can see this happenin'.

Viable prediction, at least for Q1.