Hey-ho friends,

Long time reader first time poster here. I have to say that I've often observed a lot of predictions that may be a slightly overstated. Coupled with well-established overenthusiasm this tends to make for a rather tenuous combination. In addition, there are cases where certain predictions are extended even though information comes to light which points to the contrary.

For instance, I've recently noticed some claim that LBP will sell one to two million first-week, with over five million LTD.

While I honestly believe that LBP is an exceptional game and well-deserves the praise that it has received from reviewers, its appeal is limited to the niche that it has been designed for.  Content-creation games have, unfortunately, been few and far between. Though this now sets a whole new bar on future experiences the fact that such games have not seen wide release speaks to the inherent nature of such games as well as niche games in general.  The entire "unique game experience" is simply that - an experience that, while is very different from the norm, does not have wide appeal simply because of its departure from the norm.

Looking at past games that had carried this title, the sales numbers speak for themselves:

No More Heroes - Wii - 360k LTD

ICO - PS2 - 700k LTD (http://hg101.classicgaming.gamespy.com/icosotc/ico.htm)

Okami - PS2 - 150k LTD

Shadow of the Colossus - PS2 - 730k LTD

Viva Pinata - 360 - 1.54M LTD

While it is noted that the current LBP sales figures have somewhat of a skew due to the shortened sales period (since sales figures examine a Sunday-to-Sunday timeframe), the fact that it has sold only over a hundred and sixty thousand units speaks to its niche appeal.

Compared to the latest Viva Piñata game (about fifty thousand first week), this is a very good launch, but considering the amount of marketing that was done for LBP, it does fall short of the hype and enthusiasm that was built for it.  Even Ratchet and Clank (PS3), a platformer game that did not have any content creation, managed to fall only thirty thousand units short of LBP's numbers, and had the same amount of days for its first week (10/23/07 for USA).

It seems fairly likely, considering the level of appeal this game has, that six to ten million LTD may be a bit of an overestimate.  It is more likely that two million is a high-ball figure, and under three million is virtually certain. 

I'm even willing to bet my cape and superpowers on it.

fayewong,

I politely disagree with your bolded point. I do not believe that second week (I assume you mean this week Nov 2-9?) sales will be over two hundred thousand. If it goes above the 165k pre-order-leak-release then it will not do so by very much. That is my sales opinion for this sales forum which will come to light in due time.

I'll admit wholeheartedly that it's not "everyone" who thinks of LBP in terms of overestimated predictions, but I am referring particularly to certain individuals who are doing so. I speak not only of VGChartz.com but also many other boards I've seen as well as excited fans. Expectations are high and I don't believe that can be disputed. My point is simply that expectations are too high.

I believe it's a strawman argument of quite some ridiculousness to try to discredit what I'm trying to say here by insinuating that I have somehow cast a blanket on all users everywhere.

Gab,

You could be right about the "real" data being forthcoming, but we shall see. You're also correct on your first point in that, eventually, it will be shown what direction these sales will go. However, the point of this discussion starting was to address the point that expectations are higher than realizations (the latter being forthcoming, but initial results support my original claim which is why this discussion is taking place).

fayewong,

I politely disagree with your bolded point. I do not believe that second week (I assume you mean this week Nov 2-9?) sales will be over two hundred thousand. If it goes above the 165k pre-order-leak-release then it will not do so by very much. That is my sales opinion for this sales forum which will come to light in due time.

fayewong,

I politely disagree with your bolded point. I do not believe that second week (I assume you mean this week Nov 2-9?) sales will be over two hundred thousand. If it goes above the 165k pre-order-leak-release then it will not do so by very much. That is my sales opinion for this sales forum which will come to light in due time.

If you were a proper reader as you claim to be, you would be well informed of the fact that LBP was released a week early in America in some retail stores - that accounts for your sale figures of roughly 160k. If you go to Wikipedia for your facts then that alone would make alarm bells rell in most people's heads. The Week 1 sales of LBP in America will be known once the softwale sales for last week are posted. You add that number to week 0 sales and then you get week 1 sales. Not that hard to comprehend, is it?

Your argument is not based around facts, rather you use incorrect sources to try and win an argument when others have clearly proevn you wrong. Your ignorance astounds me. You are either incredibly stupid or a troll. I think it may be a bit of both, because a proper troll would atleast make an attempt to use correct data.