Hey-ho friends,

Long time reader first time poster here. I have to say that I've often observed a lot of predictions that may be a slightly overstated. Coupled with well-established overenthusiasm this tends to make for a rather tenuous combination. In addition, there are cases where certain predictions are extended even though information comes to light which points to the contrary.

For instance, I've recently noticed some claim that LBP will sell one to two million first-week, with over five million LTD.

While I honestly believe that LBP is an exceptional game and well-deserves the praise that it has received from reviewers, its appeal is limited to the niche that it has been designed for.  Content-creation games have, unfortunately, been few and far between. Though this now sets a whole new bar on future experiences the fact that such games have not seen wide release speaks to the inherent nature of such games as well as niche games in general.  The entire "unique game experience" is simply that - an experience that, while is very different from the norm, does not have wide appeal simply because of its departure from the norm.

Looking at past games that had carried this title, the sales numbers speak for themselves:

No More Heroes - Wii - 360k LTD

ICO - PS2 - 700k LTD (http://hg101.classicgaming.gamespy.com/icosotc/ico.htm)

Okami - PS2 - 150k LTD

Shadow of the Colossus - PS2 - 730k LTD

Viva Pinata - 360 - 1.54M LTD

While it is noted that the current LBP sales figures have somewhat of a skew due to the shortened sales period (since sales figures examine a Sunday-to-Sunday timeframe), the fact that it has sold only over a hundred and sixty thousand units speaks to its niche appeal.

Compared to the latest Viva Piñata game (about fifty thousand first week), this is a very good launch, but considering the amount of marketing that was done for LBP, it does fall short of the hype and enthusiasm that was built for it.  Even Ratchet and Clank (PS3), a platformer game that did not have any content creation, managed to fall only thirty thousand units short of LBP's numbers, and had the same amount of days for its first week (10/23/07 for USA).

It seems fairly likely, considering the level of appeal this game has, that six to ten million LTD may be a bit of an overestimate.  It is more likely that two million is a high-ball figure, and under three million is virtually certain. 

I'm even willing to bet my cape and superpowers on it.

Believe it or not these are still not a full week of sales, the game officially released on OCT 28, numbers for the week ending NOV 1= only 4 days on the market.

My expectation was for it to sell 1 million copies before the end of October, and for that to happen we need OTHERS to sell at the least 500k( if LBP were to sell 250k in NA)

Another one of these again? Originality FTW!!

..................

that's what I was thinking.

1. Im not your friend pal

2.  Links?

3. links?

4. How many of those games have sold 400k in week one without a major regions data?

5. If you are a long time reader wouldn't you have read that 164k is due to broken street dates from very few vendors? So week 0 if you will.

6. It's stupid to even compare these games... not to mention how you are even doing it.

7. Most perdictions I've seen are 2-4 mil... you arent telling us anything new.

For the people who are asking where I got my numbers from, I point to the following threads:

http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=48030
http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=48021

While there are numerous people who disagree with the estimates within each thread, I believe that it's safe to note that such a view exists. Even looking at the Predictions League, the top predictors for the first week of November have an average of four hundred thousand units - well over twice the actual figures.

Leo-J, I think your claim about first week sales is a natural reaction but not necessarily a correct one. Pre-order leaks appeared to be two weeks prior to now, and the numbers coming out now are likely much closer to the “peak” release numbers. I would definitely claim next week would be in the under one hundred thousand range.

Max King, there's certainly no reason to be so uncivil even if this is the internet. I believe I replied to several of your points in the above notes though. Some of which seem to be rather ad hominem and don't particularly deserve a response.

1. Your the trying to prove a point. I don''t wan't to reead through pages of replies just to single out what comment you are refering to.

2. You don't see the numbers in your post after the bold?

(Those game sales you quoted are quite funny considering week 1 LBP > all of those LT sales except viva.)

Fucking fail thread.

I'll not try to explain it to you.
I wich you remained a reader only for a longer time, tou just screwed your entry Hero.