The 360 definitely got a boost from a Gears 2 coming out. Plus it's price point is obviously helping out. The reason the PS3 is down is because an increased spur in 360 sales. This has happened so many times.

Any idea that the Wii might have sold more hardware if there was a big release won't be proven with the increasing sales that are sure to come from the upcoming weeks. Plus With Animal Crossing coming out, we won't know what to accredit the potentially massive sales to. The Wii has to sell (according to RolStoppable) at least another 8-9 million in this holiday to reach it's Q1 2009 End Target of 51m Wii's shipped, so I think the Wii is just getting warmed up. It is kind of scary.

The PS3 would have been down anyways, since the people who want Resistance 2 probably already have a PS3. Few people have waited to buy a PS3 for a Resistance sequel (no offense).

Mini-Update: Holiday 2008 Estimates

Using the first 2 weeks as a barometer for the rest of the holidays and 2007 as the template I've estimated this year's sales.  Keep in mind this is a simple estimate based on simple rules and is likely to be off, but it was interesting so I thought I'd add it for discussion:

Note: Numbers in bold are those already posted, numbers in italics are estimates only.

This type of estimate will clearly favor the console that does the best in the first two weeks of the year while hurting the console that did the worst.  The first two weeks are a strong indicator but they are not the final word on the matter either, I expect the PS3 to improve on the current numbers, the Wii to probably cool off a little bit and the 360 to do about what this estimate shows.

Like I said, it favors the Wii =)

This basically boils down to:

WKX'08 = (WKX'07/Average(Wk1'07, Wk2'07))*Average(Wk1'08, Wk2'08)

Where X is between 3 and 10 inclusive.

Well in truth I expect it to work out more like this:

360 - 3,997,822
PS3 - 4,380,407
Wii - 10,439,308

Still very good for the Wii and would result in a 49.26% marketshare, but not quite 50%.  The big caveat to all of this is of course Wii supply.  If it had enough it would easily do 12M units, but without the units it may struggle to even hit 10M.

The difference, I think, is that most gift buyers are going to be similar to profile of the average consumer over the last year not just the last month.  The first 10 months of the year show a slight PS3 edge and I'm of the opinion that it will be reflected.  It's by no means a lock, 400k units is the 10% difference and both of these consoles will easily sell that in a single week during the holiday so it's still very much up in the air. 

I just prefer using historic trends to calculate rather than the "what feels good" methods beause it is easier to fool yourself by getting cought up in the hype with the "what feels good" estimates.

Are you trying to make a rational argument for people to act irrationally?

Because if you are, you're doing a very good job =P

There is more "reason" and "evidence" to support the 360 outselling the PS3 this christmas ... I wonder how many weeks in we will have to get for you to change your mind?

I wonder how the NPD results may change things?

PS3 not so hot anymore, Xbox 360 coming into Christmas a little hotter than what the numbers indicated?

Here's what the consoles need to pass their week 3 sales, with Others & Japan sales for this week in:

Wii: 196,681 to go...

With NA sales, this is an easy one. Wii will definitely see healthy growth YoY this week.

360: 97,226 to go...

360 sold 114,166 consoles last week in NA, so it's safe to say that 360 will pass last years sales with little trouble.

PS3: 110,312 to go...

With 78,255 consoles sold in NA last week, PS3 might have some trouble hitting the mark.

I've got something new this week, it won't be out until the rest of the numbers are done, but it will give a more detailed look at the HYP.