The Official Second Annual *H.Y.P.E.* Thread

[Sqrl]

RolStoppable said:

Sqrl said:

Mini-Update:

Using the first 2 weeks as a barometer for the rest of the holidays and 2007 as the template I've estimated this year's sales.  Keep in mind this is a simple estimate based on simple rules and is likely to be off, but it was interesting so I thought I'd add it for discussion:

	360	PS3	Wii
Wk 1	205,985	197,755	497,227
Wk 2	255,371	209,239	527,317
Wk 3	276,980	258,231	817,704
Wk 4	421,660	376,803	1,196,251
Wk 5	404,717	387,452	1,224,498
Wk 6	500,248	469,322	1,285,927
Wk 7	596,959	571,774	1,212,812
Wk 8	690,446	651,228	2,618,033
Wk 9	386,782	423,029	1,291,035
Wk 10	258,676	317,303	814,588
Totals	3,997,822	3,862,136	11,485,393

Note: Numbers in bold are those already posted, numbers in italics are estimates only.

This type of estimate will clearly favor the console that does the best in the first two weeks of the year while hurting the console that did the worst.  The first two weeks are a strong indicator but they are not the final word on the matter either, I expect the PS3 to improve quite a bit from the current numbers, the Wii to probably cool off a little bit and the 360 to do about what this estimate shows.

The Wii outsells the HD consoles by 3.6m, so it will reach 50 % marketshare in December. That's good to see.

Like I said, it favors the Wii =)

This basically boils down to:

WKX'08 = (WKX'07/Average(Wk1'07, Wk2'07))*Average(Wk1'08, Wk2'08)

Where X is between 3 and 10 inclusive.