The Official Second Annual *H.Y.P.E.* Thread

[Sqrl]

RolStoppable said:

Sqrl said:

Well in truth I expect it to work out more like this:

360 - 3,997,822
PS3 - 4,380,407
Wii - 10,439,308

Still very good for the Wii and would result in a 49.26% marketshare, but not quite 50%.  The big caveat to all of this is of course Wii supply.  If it had enough it would easily do 12M units, but without the units it may struggle to even hit 10M.

You expect the PS3 to outsell the 360 by about 10 %? Interesting.

I think the 360 should be able to carry its price cut momentum through the holidays and slightly edge out the PS3. Then again, I also thought that the 360 would beat the PS3 last year. I hate sales predictions! I am (nearly) always wrong.

 

The difference, I think, is that most gift buyers are going to be similar to profile of the average consumer over the last year not just the last month.  The first 10 months of the year show a slight PS3 edge and I'm of the opinion that it will be reflected.  It's by no means a lock, 400k units is the 10% difference and both of these consoles will easily sell that in a single week during the holiday so it's still very much up in the air. 

I just prefer using historic trends to calculate rather than the "what feels good" methods beause it is easier to fool yourself by getting cought up in the hype with the "what feels good" estimates.