RolStoppable said:
I have read a lot of your posts on the forum and comments on the sales charts, so I am not sure if you are the right person to tell someone that he/she is taking lots of drugs. |
LOL, nice comeback :)
RolStoppable said:
I have read a lot of your posts on the forum and comments on the sales charts, so I am not sure if you are the right person to tell someone that he/she is taking lots of drugs. |
LOL, nice comeback :)
I wouldn't be bold enough to predict those kinds of numbers in the 200m+ region but I do think that the Wii has a serious chance at 130-150m, the even higher numbers might be possible but its very very hard to base that sort of prediction on traditional indicators. I personally don't think there is any good indication of Wii demand right now due to extreme supply constraints. We still have no way to know what the full scope of the Wii demand is. So with that in mind, in the past I based my numbers on just what was observable. But if I'm going to answer where I think it will end up, just as a gut feeling I would probably set the numbers something like this...
Wii: 100-150m
PS3: 45-55m
360: 40-50m
Now if you want me to base it off what is observable right now I would come up with something like this...
Wii: 75-90m
PS3: 30-35m
360: 40-50m
If i was doing a full prediction I would go much farther in depth and have a single number for each console with explanations as to how it got to that point. But this is a rough "guesstimation" off the top of my head.
Wii: 125-150 million
PS3/360: 20-30 million each (They keep taking turns biting each other and themselves in the ass)
PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)
If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.
Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007
Here is some further numbers for the argument:
YTD Sales North America:
Wii: 2,599,750
XBox 360: 1,483,916
PS3: 946,046
YTD Sales Japan:
Wii: 2,202,770
XBox 360: 135,277
PS3: 555,465
YTD Sales Others:
Wii: 1,724,562
XBox 360: 760,487
PS3: 1,171,265
YTD Sales Worldwide:
Wii: 6,527,082
XBox 360: 2,379,680
PS3: 2,672,776
So worldwide the PS3 and XBox 360's combined sales are (roughly) 75% of the supply limited Wii sales; it would not be outrageous to say that if the Wii had a limitless supply the PS3 and XBox 360 combined sales would be (roughly) 50% of the Wii sales.
Sales like this can not continue for long before third party development resources are reallocated to match the sales of the systems. Can the PS3 and XBox 360 mount a comeback when they have half the development resources and twice the development costs (implying 1/4 the games) of the Wii?
Wow people really think that the PS3 and X360 will continue at the rate they are now you need to look at what is coming up in the game library the price cuts that will be here what attracts buyers dont just look at comparing this gen and last gen things have changed alot and it can only get better for the consumer(us) and dont expect sale trends to continue from now until the end of the gen.
End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)
PlayStation 4: 12-15million
Xbox One: 7-10 million
Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)
mitsuhide said: Wow people really think that the PS3 and X360 will continue at the rate they are now you need to look at what is coming up in the game library the price cuts that will be here what attracts buyers dont just look at comparing this gen and last gen things have changed alot and it can only get better for the consumer(us) and dont expect sale trends to continue from now until the end of the gen. |
Right now third party publishers have moved from believing the Wii was doomed to a full fledged panic to find resources due to its 'unexpected' success. If this sales trend continues to the end of 2007 many publishers who have remained 'loyal' to the PS3 and XBox 360 will miss sales projections and will be losing marketshare. Being that these companies are publicly traded many CEOs will produce a press release which explains the situation and outlines a strategy to recover in the near future.
The publisher's press releases will essentially read "We missed projections because of the unexpected success of the Nintendo Wii and the poor sales of the XBox 360 and PS3" the only strategy that doesn't sound foolish to follow a statement like that is "In the comming year we plan to heavily support the Wii " ...
After the Wii has a larger library and a lower price what can the PS3 or XBox 360 do to actually recover?
I see the disruptive strategy which made the DS explode in Japan in the Wii, but this time, it's both in Japan and in USA where it's exploding... Even if it doesn't explode in Europe, it will eventually, when all the developers shift focus:
Wii: 80 - 150 millions
PS3: 40 - 60 millions
360: 40 - 60 millions
GF your PS3 and X360 sales are more respectable.
End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)
PlayStation 4: 12-15million
Xbox One: 7-10 million
Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)
I see the ps3 wining this gen if that 40gb model is in fact the truth, I expect it to sell as well as the ps2.
90-120million-ps3(with 40gb $399.99)
80-100million-wii
40-60million-360
If no ps3 $399.99 by this holiday season or mid 08.
75-90million for ps3.