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Forums - Sales Discussion - Anyone still believe Wii Won't be ahead of Xbox 360 by the end of the 2007?

KruzeS on 25 July 2007
You have to understand one thing people: they know how much they're producing and/or stockpilling, not you. The likelihood of them forecasting a number and then not meeting it because they "just can't make that many" is pretty slim.

So unless you're saying it will stop selling, with Paper, with Metroid, with Galaxy, with Smash, with Fit (all coming somewhere around the world) and with the holiday craze reaching everywhere, then they will meet their forecast. And their forecast means no less than 19 million shipped by the end of the year (with the a 95%+ sell through they've gotten us used too).

And if you doubt they can increase shipments when and where it matters look at Golden Week with a 25% increase, and more recently at DQS with a 50% increase for its release. You'll see more of that for the big releases, steadily increasing shipments until October, and then you'll see sales double in November and December.

Reality has a Nintendo bias.
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steven787 on 25 July 2007

Unless the are wide spread reports of system malfunctions are true... Oh wait that's 360.

Unless their big exclusives move to 360 or get pushed back to '08... oh wait again wrong system, thats the Triple.

Nevermind, Nintendo will own 07. 08 and 09 will be the real test of Wii's staying power and/or the willingness of people to buy HD consoles, with $60 games.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

twesterm on 25 July 2007
steven787 said:

(EDIT:Twestern, How do you get 4 months? We are 3 and a half weeks in to July, FIVE MONTHS LEFT, there are still 159 days left in the year, 43% of the year is left, and that includes the holidays where in November and December Sales usually Quadruple.)

 


You're right, I can't do basic math today.  Still, even 10 million in just over 5 months sounds a little iffy to me.  I could see as many as 8 million, but 10 just sounds like too many, especially when the console has been out for 9 months.



 

Sqrl on 25 July 2007

Just to restate this since people seemed to miss it...


From Nintendo's Q1 report....

  • Aproximatley 3.5m units were shipped in Q1
  • They are Projecting 16.5m units shipped through FY08 (which started in april)
  • Simple math tells us they are planning on having 6m units for Q3 (which is Oct, Nov, Dec)
  • More simple math shows us that at the start of april they had ~6m Total sales, by adding their FY08 predictions we can see that by the end of March 08 they should have ~22.5m units shipped.
So if you think they are only going to have around 15-16m by end of calendar year you are assuming the Wii is going to stop selling out and won't sell out over the holidays....that or you doubt the always conservative production numbers.

To Each Man, Responsibility
leo-j on 25 July 2007

The wii will be ahead of the 360 in late august early september. As for the ps3 I expect that next week it will either be at the 4 million mark or just below it. And the 360 to be around 10.25m. As for games hot shots golf 5 is goin to be in the top 5 for japan :0

Maybe ps3 sales in japan might jump to the 20k range.



 

mM
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shams on 25 July 2007

TheSource said:

...

My point is, that since Nintendo expects to ship 22.34 million Wiis by March 31, 2008, it is not unreasonable to expect sales of 19-20 million by the end of 2007. If sales are stronger than expected (a distinct possibility), Wii could pass 20 million by the end of 2007 - and Nintendo would have to raise forecasts again (which would happen in October).

I expect sales of 4-5m in the 1st qrt '08 (1.3m-1.5m/month) - especially with Mario Kart coming out. Sort of like the "final blow" before the end of the FY.

So its 17-18m sold by 1st Jan '08.

Wii will overtake the 360 in 1 month - and will remain in front forever.

The real question is when the PS3 will overtake the 360 - if ever ;)

 

 



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

mitsuhide on 25 July 2007

PS3 will overtake the X360 next year when next year i dont know but sometime next year.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

WiteoutKing on 25 July 2007
mitsuhide said:
PS3 will overtake the X360 next year when next year i dont know but sometime next year.

Crunching some numbers on the estimate...

PS3 is trailing the 360 by 6.3 million consoles.
The PS3 has sold 3.9 million over the course of 8 months.  This implies an average of about 485k per month.
The 360 has sold 10.2 million over the course of 20 months.  This implies an average of about 510k per month.
If the rate of sale for the 360 does not change, by Dec 31 2009 (17 months) it will have sold an additional 8.67 million, bringing the total to about 18.9 million consoles.
For the PS3 to catch up, it will need to sell approximately 15 million consoles over the course of 17 months, which equates to an average of 882k per month.  That implies an increase in sales, worldwide, by 81.9%, which would need to hold for a full 17 months, and assuming the 360 doesn't move at all.

 Reachable... yes, I suppose so.  But hardly likely.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

Avinash_Tyagi on 25 July 2007
RolStoppable said:
twesterm said:
I think the Wii will definitely pass the 360 (within a month even) but I think 20 million is a pretty generous number. I expect the years end number to be closer to 14-15 million.

So this means you either expect Nintendo to fail to meet their updated sales forecast for this fiscal year (22.5m) or you expect that 7.5-8-5m Wiis are sold in the first quarter of 2008...

 


 

 A bit off topic, but I find it amusing (perhaps even ironic) that a person with a Ron Stoppable avatar is being responded to by a person whose name is a variant of said character, but has a Kim Possible avatar

 

Anyways on Topic I don't see how the 360 will be able to stay ahead of the Wii for the rest of the year 


 

 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

johnsobas on 25 July 2007

Yea PS3 isn't going to pass 360 anytime soon if ever. The gap is going to get bigger this christmas.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X