| mitsuhide said: PS3 will overtake the X360 next year when next year i dont know but sometime next year. |
Crunching some numbers on the estimate...
PS3 is trailing the 360 by 6.3 million consoles.
The PS3 has sold 3.9 million over the course of 8 months. This implies an average of about 485k per month.
The 360 has sold 10.2 million over the course of 20 months. This implies an average of about 510k per month.
If the rate of sale for the 360 does not change, by Dec 31 2009 (17 months) it will have sold an additional 8.67 million, bringing the total to about 18.9 million consoles.
For the PS3 to catch up, it will need to sell approximately 15 million consoles over the course of 17 months, which equates to an average of 882k per month. That implies an increase in sales, worldwide, by 81.9%, which would need to hold for a full 17 months, and assuming the 360 doesn't move at all.
Reachable... yes, I suppose so. But hardly likely.
PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)
If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.
Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007
