So basically, you still believe the Wii won't be ahead of the Xbox 360 before 2008, yet you predicted that it would outsell the Xbox 360 by 7 million units. Doesn't make sense.

By the way, the Wii will definitely outsell the Xbox 360 before the end of 2007. It has to, for their numbers are too close right now, and 2008 is still a few months away.

I guess some people don't get sarcasm ...but going by "a.l.e.x59"'s post count I would of guessed he would get the joke considering that with that many posts he should have an idea of your views by now =P

Edit: Being nice though, I too had to double take =P 

And to think. They doubted me.

Even you Source and now you're saying exactly what I said here way back in March! Hahahahahaha!

Sweet vindication.

I'll drudge up those doubting words later. I got to catch up on some stories right now.

20 Million Worldwide AT LEAST by year end like I always said. Best case scenario: 24 million WORLDWIDE.

John Lucas 

And you still think your July prediction will be true? ... That doesn't give much credibility to your other predictions, no matter how much I may or may not agree with them...

I second that...

@ johnlucas

Also I'd like to know what do you think about MGS4 (PS3's gameplay) and impact of DQ:S?

Yes I do.

We won't see July 31 week's results until 2nd week of August remember? Snip a few days off and you'll have your figure.

I think the VGChartz guys post these updates every Wednesday so stay tuned to August 8 to see my prediction come true.

We got two more weeks. Remember they had 8.95 million something as July 1 rolled around showing late June numbers and now we see 'em close to 9.60 million on July 26 counting mid July figures.

And best believe they're preparing to have systems in stock for USA release of Mario Strikers first super Wi-Fi Wii title. Pokemon was warm up. Strikers is the first of many main courses.

Nintendo is really struggling to keep up with this demand. Their own system surprised even them in how successful it can be. Can't wait until those newly contracted factories start kicking in.

John Lucas 

I don't move from my statements. It will not see the light of day on the PS3.

Perfect Dark Zero was shown at Spaceworld 2000, a Nintendo event, and in the end it debuted on the XBox 360.

Things change, kber81. Quickly. Things change in this industry. Suddenly and on a dime. There aren't many solid rocks around to stand on other than Nintendo will always own Nintendo's IPs. Everything else is modifiable.

Dragon Quest: Swords will actually make things worse for Sony. I don't know if you've noticed but Square-Enix is back in bed with Nintendo. Your Final Fantasy VII moment of the current era is the announcement that Dragon Quest IX was going to DS. That was megaton as they say. Money talks and Bessie Sue walks.

DQ:Swords having this kind of impact on the charts changes allegiances. 3rd party follows the money and the money potential. Square-Enix said no new development until PS3 sales improve. What do you think that means for a big money project like the FFXIIIs? What do you think that means for a big money project like MGS4?

If the base is too small then the sales will have a low maximum ceiling. I don't think these guys spent so many years and put so much heart into their work only to see it do so-so in the stores. PS3 games on the charts in every region are a rarity. And after you see them you tend not to see them long on the charts.

It takes more sales to break even on PS3. Companies want to profit not break even. The price of the PS3 is simply a barrier to access. If the GBA of all things is giving Sony hell in the USA where MGS4 sells the strongest, if PS3 can't even break the 100,000 a month barrier month after month, if PS3 is a non-entity almost on level with nobody 360 in Japan its home turf, then you can bet your bottom dollar the companies are secretly preparing the liferaft to get off the ship.

Sony president said no price drop to the very end and then here came the price drop. They have investors and egos to protect. You will always see them diplomatic, doublespeaking, and friendly lying in order not to ruffle the feathers. From time to time you see the real barbs which indicate their true intentions.

MPrime3 was supposed to be launch title and now we're waiting until late August to see it. Things change and it's a loooong way before 2008.

Example of how things change? No one saw Nintendo as underdog after ruling industry for over 10 years. No one saw Sony as underdog after ruling industry for over 10 years.

Study the example of the Dreamcast to understand that things aren't always what they seem. Until the end even Sega officials denied the doom everyone else saw.

John Lucas

Let's assume no Xbox 360 is sold until the end of this month:

From what I can see, Wii sales until end of June were 8.85 million. After 22nd of July we're at 9.57 million. That's 32.7k Wiis sold per day. 9 days till the end of the month. 9*32.7 = 294.3k Wiis sold until the end of this month, assuming past trends. Now let's assume Wii sales increase 100% in all regions (not just America):

294.3*200% plus 9.570 million Wiis sold so far gives 10.16 million at the end of the month. The 360 now stands at 10.19 million sold.

Remember this is assuming no Xbox 360 sales and a doubling of Wii sales/supply everywhere. What kind of American sales/supply increase are you expecting due to Mario Strikers?

You are wrong, don't tell me later I didn't warn you :P 

PS: I ignored one day of sales difference due to the fact that week ends are different in America. Shouldn't change the numbers by any significant amount.

I might be one of the few, if only people that think there's a chance the Wii won't overtake the X360 worldwide by EOY.

Let me make a few statements as to why I say this:

#1. I think regardless, it'll be close, within 500k units of reachother by EOY.

#2. MS has the advantage of having more units out (11.6m) and the ability to churn out more units than Nintendo does at this point in time (last year, MS shipped 4.5m units in just 3 months).

#3. The games will help the X360 power past the Wii for a week or two, giving it a slight razor's edge at the end of the year to beat it by ~200k units or so. Halo 3, GTAIV, and others have proven track records and pedigree's to move units, and I think this Christmas, provided theres a pricedrop real soon, will give alot of former Xbox owners, and PS2 owners enough reason to adopt a X360 in the US and Europe over the Wii, whilst the PS3 steals some of the Wii's thunder in Japan and Europe (albiet not much).

I'm pretty much sticking to my ~17.5m X360, and 17.0m Wii predictions I made back in March. Crazy? Yes. I do know, and believe, and have said for months the Wii will overtake the X360 in August, or September at the latest. Right now, unless ioi gimps the data, it'll be another 3-4 weeks at max.

Could I be very wrong? Yes. But I just don't see how MS can do a ton worse than last year (they sold around 3m units from Sept-Dec) with the huge lineup, pricedrop, and everything else. IMO, they can sell 5m or so between Oct-Dec worldwide, and just edge the Wii out. That doesn't mean I think the X360 will maintain the lead for much longer after, though, as I think the Wii will re-take it's lead in mid January, and stay there for awhile.

 Their claim, made in January, was that they had sold 10.4 million Xbox360s into retail by the end of calander 2006 (known by observers as an example of 'channel stuffing'). This was to 'meet' their 'revised' claim in E3 2006 that they'd reach 10 million sales before the end of the year. The original claim was that they'd reach 10 million before the competition launched, and that first to 10 million has always won in previous generations. Presumably they were implying sold to consumers, as retail having possesion of 10 million boxes never guaranteed winning anything.