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Forums - Sales Discussion - Are the PS3 numbers accurate?

Desroko on 25 July 2007
leo-j said:
I think they are accurate. But its been selling well the past two weeks world wide. If it continues this trend from weeks on out selling at least 70k WW, Around 6 million units would have been sold from the luanch to next january. But I expect a huge jump in sales this holiday season for ps3 maybe even gettin as close as 10k units away from wii for weekly sales. And end up around 7- 8 million units sold with the 360 staying around 12-13 million and the wii high around 14million.

Any reason why the Wii sales will drop off dramatically during the busiest time of the year? 

If the Wii only mainained its current pace, it will sell between 15-16m by 2008. The PS3 number sounds reasonable, but I haven't looked into the 360 rate.

 



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Sqrl on 25 July 2007

His 360 number is close enough, but man'o'man is that Wii number out there....
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Nonquihote on 25 July 2007

No one can know.

Official numbers are quite lacking, so many markets in the world we know nothing about.



shams on 25 July 2007
anonymous said:
I'm not trying to cast any doubt on VgChartz methods I'm just curious about the PS3 numbers which seem strikingly low. If it has in fact sold under four million at this point does it have any chance of breaking ten million by year's end? Can someone lend some context to this and tell us roughly how many 360's Microsoft had sold at this time? I understand the the holiday season is approaching, and that Sony is bound to sell many PS3's at that time, but it seems like a stretch to predict six or more million being sold over the holidays.

I'm just surprised. I don't follow Sony's numbers, but I had assumed it was doing much better than this.

God no.

It will be doing well to hit 7.5-8m by the end of the year. Unless there is another surprise price cut.

August, September, October - PS3 will do well to hit 500k-600k in each of these months.

November, December - say 2.5-3m combined. Which is pretty good for any console over the holiday period. 

...

Grand total: 3.8m + 1.8m + 3m = 8.6m

That's an ultra-optimistic, upper ceiling IMO for the PS3. I think my initial predictions were closer to 7.5m. But there are numerous other threads that discuss these predictions anyway. 

 



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leo-j on 25 July 2007
Desroko said:
leo-j said:
I think they are accurate. But its been selling well the past two weeks world wide. If it continues this trend from weeks on out selling at least 70k WW, Around 6 million units would have been sold from the luanch to next january. But I expect a huge jump in sales this holiday season for ps3 maybe even gettin as close as 10k units away from wii for weekly sales. And end up around 7- 8 million units sold with the 360 staying around 12-13 million and the wii high around 14million.

Any reason why the Wii sales will drop off dramatically during the busiest time of the year? 

If the Wii only mainained its current pace, it will sell between 15-16m by 2008. The PS3 number sounds reasonable, but I haven't looked into the 360 rate.

 


If the wii continues selling at least 150k weekly world wide form here to january it will sell around 13 million units. And expecting a slight jump in the holidays(dont expect to meet demands) It will end up around 14-15million units sold by january. So Im not so off in my predicints and I said january not mid 08. The 360 numbers are bad WW. If it continues around 50k weekly(whcih I doubt) It will end up around 12 million WW,But with halo 3 and the holidays that wil change to around 13million maybe just maybe 14million WW.



 

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ckmlb on 25 July 2007

They are accurate but what's with the need for the PS3 to break 10 million by year's end? MS didn't break 10 million they overshipped hugely at the end of the year to make the claim of reach 10 million by year's end.



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Bodhesatva on 25 July 2007
leo-j said:
Desroko said:
leo-j said:
I think they are accurate. But its been selling well the past two weeks world wide. If it continues this trend from weeks on out selling at least 70k WW, Around 6 million units would have been sold from the luanch to next january. But I expect a huge jump in sales this holiday season for ps3 maybe even gettin as close as 10k units away from wii for weekly sales. And end up around 7- 8 million units sold with the 360 staying around 12-13 million and the wii high around 14million.

Any reason why the Wii sales will drop off dramatically during the busiest time of the year?

If the Wii only mainained its current pace, it will sell between 15-16m by 2008. The PS3 number sounds reasonable, but I haven't looked into the 360 rate.

 


If the wii continues selling at least 150k weekly world wide form here to january it will sell around 13 million units. And expecting a slight jump in the holidays(dont expect to meet demands) It will end up around 14-15million units sold by january. So Im not so off in my predicints and I said january not mid 08. The 360 numbers are bad WW. If it continues around 50k weekly(whcih I doubt) It will end up around 12 million WW,But with halo 3 and the holidays that wil change to around 13million maybe just maybe 14million WW.


But the Wii is averaging around 230k a week... so... your analysis has a flawed premise and all of your proceeding calculations are corrupt. Evidence 

 http://vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=39236

Totalling all Wii sales since the beginning of June (starting June 3, specifically), the total Wii sales worldwide are  1,612,000 (add them up yourself if you don't believe me, it's not hard). I did not include this week because the figures aren't in yet. 1,612,000 / 7 = 230,300, approximately. 

There are approximately 24 weeks left in the year. Assuming the Wii gets no bump in sales whatsoever for Christmas:

24 x 230,000 = 5,520,000

The Wii has currently sold 9.49 million (and we still don't have last week's Japanese figures added in, so this will be somewhere between 9.55 and 9.6 million, but I'll let that go for now).

9,490,000 + 5,520,000 = 15,010,000. That is essentially the bare minimum number of Wiis that could be sold, if Nintendo has done absolutely no stockpiling whatsoever.

 



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KruzeS on 25 July 2007
ckmlb said:
They are accurate but what's with the need for the PS3 to break 10 million by year's end? MS didn't break 10 million they overshipped hugely at the end of the year to make the claim of reach 10 million by year's end.

Sony is still planing to ship 16 million units til March 2008, that's what.



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Sqrl on 25 July 2007
Bodhesatva said:
leo-j said:
Desroko said:
leo-j said:
I think they are accurate. But its been selling well the past two weeks world wide. If it continues this trend from weeks on out selling at least 70k WW, Around 6 million units would have been sold from the luanch to next january. But I expect a huge jump in sales this holiday season for ps3 maybe even gettin as close as 10k units away from wii for weekly sales. And end up around 7- 8 million units sold with the 360 staying around 12-13 million and the wii high around 14million.

Any reason why the Wii sales will drop off dramatically during the busiest time of the year?

If the Wii only mainained its current pace, it will sell between 15-16m by 2008. The PS3 number sounds reasonable, but I haven't looked into the 360 rate.

 


If the wii continues selling at least 150k weekly world wide form here to january it will sell around 13 million units. And expecting a slight jump in the holidays(dont expect to meet demands) It will end up around 14-15million units sold by january. So Im not so off in my predicints and I said january not mid 08. The 360 numbers are bad WW. If it continues around 50k weekly(whcih I doubt) It will end up around 12 million WW,But with halo 3 and the holidays that wil change to around 13million maybe just maybe 14million WW.


But the Wii is averaging around 230k a week... so... your analysis has a flawed premise and all of your proceeding calculations are corrupt. Evidence

http://vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=39236

Totalling all Wii sales since the beginning of June (starting June 3, specifically), the total Wii sales worldwide are 1,612,000 (add them up yourself if you don't believe me, it's not hard). I did not include this week because the figures aren't in yet. 1,612,000 / 7 = 230,300, approximately.

There are approximately 24 weeks left in the year. Assuming the Wii gets no bump in sales whatsoever for Christmas:

24 x 230,000 = 5,520,000

The Wii has currently sold 9.49 million (and we still don't have last week's Japanese figures added in, so this will be somewhere between 9.55 and 9.6 million, but I'll let that go for now).

9,490,000 + 5,520,000 = 15,010,000. That is essentially the bare minimum number of Wiis that could be sold, if Nintendo has done absolutely no stockpiling whatsoever.

 


In addition to everything bodhesatva has stated here (which I pretty much completely agree with) the Q1 earning report indicates an extremely high likelihood that their will be extra Wii's for the holidays. If that is the case (as I have stated in another thread) the lower bound will be much closer to 16 million.



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WiiGirl76 on 25 July 2007

No, they just withdraw a million or so to tease around PS3 fans, right?



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