Are the PS3 numbers accurate?

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Bodhesatva said:

leo-j said:

Desroko said:

leo-j said:
I think they are accurate. But its been selling well the past two weeks world wide. If it continues this trend from weeks on out selling at least 70k WW, Around 6 million units would have been sold from the luanch to next january. But I expect a huge jump in sales this holiday season for ps3 maybe even gettin as close as 10k units away from wii for weekly sales. And end up around 7- 8 million units sold with the 360 staying around 12-13 million and the wii high around 14million.

Any reason why the Wii sales will drop off dramatically during the busiest time of the year?

If the Wii only mainained its current pace, it will sell between 15-16m by 2008. The PS3 number sounds reasonable, but I haven't looked into the 360 rate.

 

If the wii continues selling at least 150k weekly world wide form here to january it will sell around 13 million units. And expecting a slight jump in the holidays(dont expect to meet demands) It will end up around 14-15million units sold by january. So Im not so off in my predicints and I said january not mid 08. The 360 numbers are bad WW. If it continues around 50k weekly(whcih I doubt) It will end up around 12 million WW,But with halo 3 and the holidays that wil change to around 13million maybe just maybe 14million WW.

But the Wii is averaging around 230k a week... so... your analysis has a flawed premise and all of your proceeding calculations are corrupt. Evidence

http://vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=39236

Totalling all Wii sales since the beginning of June (starting June 3, specifically), the total Wii sales worldwide are 1,612,000 (add them up yourself if you don't believe me, it's not hard). I did not include this week because the figures aren't in yet. 1,612,000 / 7 = 230,300, approximately.

There are approximately 24 weeks left in the year. Assuming the Wii gets no bump in sales whatsoever for Christmas:

24 x 230,000 = 5,520,000

The Wii has currently sold 9.49 million (and we still don't have last week's Japanese figures added in, so this will be somewhere between 9.55 and 9.6 million, but I'll let that go for now).

9,490,000 + 5,520,000 = 15,010,000. That is essentially the bare minimum number of Wiis that could be sold, if Nintendo has done absolutely no stockpiling whatsoever.

 

In addition to everything bodhesatva has stated here (which I pretty much completely agree with) the Q1 earning report indicates an extremely high likelihood that their will be extra Wii's for the holidays. If that is the case (as I have stated in another thread) the lower bound will be much closer to 16 million.