Some of you are just delusional.

You have four established IP's and two brand new games.

1. LBP is not going to be a HUGE seller. Its a brand new IP where the primary game is a map builder. Granted, its a really awesome map builder, but, the mass amount of people are not those who enjoy this experience. This type of game will sell to those who really like Sim City/Spore, etc. Sure it'll sell a few million, but to win this particular question of LTD sales it will not come close.

LBP = 2-3 million

2. Wii Music is also not going to be a HUGE seller. It will appeal to a subset of the 'new' crowd. It will not sell to Guitar Hero/Rock Band groups. Wii Play is probably closer to the same quality as Wii Music so far appears to be and Wii Play would have 1/4 of its sales if it did not include a Wiimote. Seriously.

Wii Music = 3-4 million

3. Fable 2. Simple, Fable apparently sold less than 3 million. Why would you expect its sequel to massively outsell it? It's not like the first one was a crappy game and it was released on a higher xbox user base than the 360 currently has.

Fable 2 = 2 million

4. Resistance 2. Again, very simple, the first game only sold a little over 3 million. It was one of only 2 quality games on the PS3 when it released. Granted that was on 1/2 of the current user base, but it now has a lot more games to compete with. Given the new environment this game is coming into I would expect a similar sales pattern.

Resistance 2 = 3-4 million

Now the real contenders.

5. Gears 2. Gears of War met universal acceptance and was the reason I pitched in almost $300 to help my brothers by a 360. It was a fantastic game and from all accounts it sequel will be better. I expect this game to out do its predecessor due to a larger 360 userbase which now contains a lot of Halo 3 fans. This game will become or come close to becoming 360's best selling game.

Gears 2 = 8-9 million

6. Animal Crossing. This is a unique game, if I only had the data for the GC version I would say Gears 2 would win hands down. However, a lot of DS success of games (i.e. Mario Kart) have carried over to Wii. On the DS, which the Wii game seems to be similar to, it has sold almost 10 million. Granted that is on a larger user base than Wii. However, this seems to me to be a game that would already have a large shift already on Wii, so while I think it will take awhile to get to the 10m it will be the only game to eventually get there.

Animal Crossing = 10 million.

Keep in mind that these are LIFETIME predictions just as the poll says, so while Gears 2 will definitely be much higher much quicker than any game on this list, Animal Crossing will have by far the best legs and will eventually pwn all.

Also by "huge" I mean over 5 million.

1-4 is fantastic and definitely shows its a great game, but over 5 million is just so rare in the entirety of our VG history that that level separates the boys from the men.

Superchunk, why do you think Fable 2 will only sell 2 million?

Considering how the first was a new IP on the xbox that sold 3 million, and the 360 is moving way more software.
Considering how well the game is being received in previews and the 360's wider demographic range (not purely FPS oriented and with more gamers that Fable 2 is likely to appeal to).

I honestly don't see how it could sell LESS than 3 million. Probably making it up to 4 Life time sales.

LBP will be huge.

Gears 2 at nine mil is hilarious. CoD4 didn't even do that on two consoles, duck that idea. Six or seven mil I much more likely.

Gears 1 was a new IP and sold 5 mil, why not LBP. LOL.

What was xbox's user base when Fable (a game that also had really good reviews) was released? Plus, I don't consider 360's userbase anymore dynamic than xbox's. It will end up larger, but essentially the same crowd.

If it was considerable less than 360's current base then I would say I could be wrong and think it may do 3-4million, however, based on the its previous showing with similar or larger base I would think it will sell less than the original and be closer to 2 million.

Fable, to me, is similar to Metroid Prime. Great games followed which is equally as good as a game, yet MP2 and 3 did not match MP1 in sales, which was nearly a launch game, i.e. the lowest userbase.

1. Gears 2 already has a huge base 5million+, on top of that it has an addition 2-3million of *new* halo 3 fans who are in need of a new game.

2. LBP is not anywhere near the same market penetrating genre as FPS. It is not a pure platformer like Mario and it is not a pure sim like Civilization/Spore (sim games don't normally do phenomenal on consoles). I think the mass consumer will be generally turned off by the idea that they must create the game to play the game.

That would be a good point superchunk, but you don't have to create your own levels. There will be plenty of people who will be making stages, I mean, even if only ten thousand people make one good level a piece, that'd be 10k levels to play through.

I don't think that lacking ability to make your own content is going to hurt the game too much.

That will require internet connection to get. What % of PS3's are connected?

Still, there is more against this game selling more than 5 million that there is for it.

I'm still convinced it will settle at a very respectible and quite good 2-3 million LTD.

There were ten million or so registered PSN accounts some time ago, so I'll go weak and say 66 percent of PS3s, so as long as 10k of them make one single good level, I'll be happy.

Hell, if 1k of them make a good level it'll be an awesome bang for your buck.

How many platformers do you know that have 1k levels?