Poll of the Week: Which exclusive will sell the most in its lifetime?

[superchunk]

Some of you are just delusional.

You have four established IP's and two brand new games.

1. LBP is not going to be a HUGE seller. Its a brand new IP where the primary game is a map builder. Granted, its a really awesome map builder, but, the mass amount of people are not those who enjoy this experience. This type of game will sell to those who really like Sim City/Spore, etc. Sure it'll sell a few million, but to win this particular question of LTD sales it will not come close.

LBP = 2-3 million

2. Wii Music is also not going to be a HUGE seller. It will appeal to a subset of the 'new' crowd. It will not sell to Guitar Hero/Rock Band groups. Wii Play is probably closer to the same quality as Wii Music so far appears to be and Wii Play would have 1/4 of its sales if it did not include a Wiimote. Seriously.

Wii Music = 3-4 million

3. Fable 2. Simple, Fable apparently sold less than 3 million. Why would you expect its sequel to massively outsell it? It's not like the first one was a crappy game and it was released on a higher xbox user base than the 360 currently has.

Fable 2 = 2 million

4. Resistance 2. Again, very simple, the first game only sold a little over 3 million. It was one of only 2 quality games on the PS3 when it released. Granted that was on 1/2 of the current user base, but it now has a lot more games to compete with. Given the new environment this game is coming into I would expect a similar sales pattern.

Resistance 2 = 3-4 million

Now the real contenders.

5. Gears 2. Gears of War met universal acceptance and was the reason I pitched in almost $300 to help my brothers by a 360. It was a fantastic game and from all accounts it sequel will be better. I expect this game to out do its predecessor due to a larger 360 userbase which now contains a lot of Halo 3 fans. This game will become or come close to becoming 360's best selling game.

Gears 2 = 8-9 million

6. Animal Crossing. This is a unique game, if I only had the data for the GC version I would say Gears 2 would win hands down. However, a lot of DS success of games (i.e. Mario Kart) have carried over to Wii. On the DS, which the Wii game seems to be similar to, it has sold almost 10 million. Granted that is on a larger user base than Wii. However, this seems to me to be a game that would already have a large shift already on Wii, so while I think it will take awhile to get to the 10m it will be the only game to eventually get there.

Animal Crossing = 10 million.

Keep in mind that these are LIFETIME predictions just as the poll says, so while Gears 2 will definitely be much higher much quicker than any game on this list, Animal Crossing will have by far the best legs and will eventually pwn all.