right, and there's no reason why PS3s shouldn't be the same price as PS2s.... and HDTVs should also be the same price as SDTVs.

VOD WILL BE HUGE

""""""""""""'"1) The majority of people replace their TV sets only when they break, so add about 5-7 years to your estimate.

2) This is unlikely to happen when a company can make more money by selling those things seperately on DVDs. Blu-Ray used as a means of offering consumers value. Absurd!""""""""""""'

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1) no my estimates are about right. HDTV has been around for some years now and it will be selling very well this holiday season straight through '09 and i can almost bet HDTV will be in the majority of peoples homes worldwide.

2) they can make more money by putting everything they would normally put on 5 dvd's in 1 blu-ray. for example lets take the hit tv show House. season two of house cost roughly $40 and it takes up 6 dvd's...

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=7887236&st=house&type=product&id=1548908

if you were to cram those 6 dvd's on 1 blu-ray and still sell it for roughly $40 then you are making more of a profit. reason? well you get rid of 5 useless disks saving you money, letting you make more money. heck sense its blu-ray and "hi-def" you can price it at $50. this is just a small example of why the 50gb is a better choice for studios/game developers imo

I'd have to disagree with the earlier comment

"The majority of people replace their TV sets only when they break"

My parents had a perfectly functioning CRT TV, however with these new slimline LCD TV's they decided to sell the old TV for a cut down price and upgrade after seeing the one in my room in action

It only costs about 10% more to make a Blu ray disk vs a DVD rom disk when using mass duplication methods.  Sure theres a bit more that goes into 'tuning' up the film and extras for 6x resolution - but I hightly doubt it is really all that much.  Besides they've spent a long time finding the sweet spot for what people would want to buy a DVD for - blu ray customers really arn't all that different.

Blu-Ray = Laserdisc

Niche formats for videophiles.  

1) You wrote "standard", now you're using majority. Well weaselled. Also, how can you "almost" bet on something? Are you not sure if your estimate will be true by the end of 2009? HDTV will most certainly be in more homes, but it will take more years of gradual acceptance and declining costs of new sets for it to be accepted as the standard by everyone.

2) But using Blu-ray for SD content is not really working to its strengths. The consumer cares little if the disc holds 50Gb; they won't ever use it in a situation where that figure matters. Blu-ray is for HD content, for those HDTVs that are supposed to be standardised. And I really doubt a publisher that can buy blank DVDs / cases in such obscene bulk amounts as to make them almost worthless gives a fig about saving money on them.

Wow there seems to be a lot of anti blu ray people on this forum. I don't think I need to remind everyone that blu ray has only been out for a short time and as such is still expensive. Having said that in due time it will become affordable and that is when people will start adopting it on mass.

it mostly depends on hdtv adoption, i predict end of 2009 bluray will come into its own.

i have hdtv, and there is no way in hell i would buy a dvd over a bluray

Hahaha, you're forgetting that a blank 50GB blu-ray disc costs much more than a DVD.  For example, on the consumer market a 50GB Blu Ray is $15 - $20 each, while a blank DVD is 30 cents to $1